DAQMAN STRIKES WITH 10-3 NAP: Berlusca (WON 100-30) landed Daqman’s nap at Wolverhampton yesterday and he sticks to the AW and a price of around 3-1 with a best bet at Southwell this afternoon.
It’s Tuesday already. I was talking last week about catching a trainer near the start of a winning run, and maybe Mark Brisbourne has plotted a few more AW hits this week.
Yesterday’s nap on Berlusca was a bit risky, as the horse had been with Mark less than a fortnight and was stepping up in trip but he was spot on.
There was no monster gamble on the Great Ness winner but it took Brisbourne’s current form figures to 13021, and he seems to have the Southwell opener trapped with his two runners of the meeting today.
I shall back both: Itsthursdayalready (Shane Kelly), dual CD winner, now dropped to his precise winning mark of this time last year, and Takajan, also a winner twice over CD, 15lb lower than for his last success and with Kieren Fallon booked.
Fallon’s last ride for Brisbourne was a winner – the Berlusca nap yesterday – and Kelly’s last mount for him, Harrys Yer Man, also won, spurring me on to split my stakes.
Mark Johnston also has two runners at Southwell today. They are also in the same race – the maiden at 2.10 – and to say he is also in form is all so obvious, since the yard never seems to be out of form.
Indeed, Three Bards is the obvious one, dropped back to a mile and with Joe Fanning likely to engage in forcing tactics from a low draw, but Za’lan is also a Maktoum and that owner doesn’t bother with many unraced sorts that have already been gelded. American bred, so should like the surface.
It’s a rare day for Southwell with a class 3 handicap (3.15) on the card, and there’s a rare runner in the race.
The only one in the field to have won at class-3 level is Phoenix Flight but can you recall a two-mile winner (both Flat and hurdles) dropping to a 7f spin around Southwell?
The last time Phoenix flew over this trip was in July, 2007, in the days when we trusted banks. He won by a neck at Wolverhampton.
Hughie Morrison has a big chance in the race with Nazreef, though he’s a bit high in the handicap to be confident, and I prefer Hughie’s other runner today – his own horse – with the track’s leading rider, Jimmy Fortune, on his only mount of the afternoon.
I rarely tip last-time-out winners; generally speaking, horses don’t have the constitution to put back-to-back success together at this level.
But dual CD scorer Captain Bellamy (3.50), who made it three out of four on the course in an amateurs’ race, has had a 43-day break, can only benefit from the change of amateur to professional jockey, and is the proverbial model of consistency.
Ayr is as lucky for me as when the bread and butter falls to the floor; I hardly ever finish face up there. But, with the comfortable flick of my cursor, many miles south of the land of golf and distilleries, I note that there’s a class 2, and several class-4 races, so I owe it to my reader to find something.
There may be a false favourite in the class 2 handicap chase (3.25): Best Lover is leaving it a bit late to step up by half a mile from his career highs of 2m.
An additional point against the 10-year-old is that he is a ‘glass’ horse, particularly hard to keep together, with only seven races in his life, and gaps of seven months and one year separating his last three races.
I shall take hungry southern raiders, the freshly-visored Buffalo Bob for Kim Bailey, and Pentific for Venetia Williams, to overturn him.
The same two trainers are joined by Alex Hales to form a three-pronged southern raiding party on the three-miler, a 3m 1f handicap chase (4.00), in fact.
Venetia’s top weight, Ballyoliver, will find it bally difficult to give weight all round on heavy going, 15lb higher than his only winning mark, a success that was on good to soft.
There is the same question mark about the ground hanging over the Kim Bailey runner, Bishophill Jack, who did his winning in December.
The claimer, Alexander Voy, who won this last year, has to try to steer home a 13-year-old, Minster Shadow. The stables of Harriet Graham (Mr Woods) and John Wade (Beau Dandy) are on the cold list; Toy Gun has to bounce back from an ignominious brace of Ps against his name, and Boris The Blade is no better.
Alexander Oats is very one-paced; Tipsy Dara pulled up on her only try over this kind of trip; and Salut Honore has to prove that her only success in a small field last time out – nearly a minute slow – was no fluke.
That leaves us relying on the 1-2-3 of a fortnight ago here, over half a mile shorter, when Sammy Spiderman beat Something Silver, with Quinder Spring plodding on in third.
With five wins at Ayr, ‘Sammy’ is consistent, and has won over the trip (complete form figures over 25f are 23312). Some 6.2 each way completes my betting day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.2pts win TAKAJAN and 3.8pts win ITSTHURSDAYALREADY (1.40 Southwell)
BET 1.25pts win and place ZA’LAN and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) THREE BARDS (2.10 Southwell)
LAY to win 10pts BEST LOVER, and BET 6.4pts win PENTIFIC and 1pt win (stakes saver) BUFFALO BOB (3.25 Ayr)
BET 7pts win (nap) CAPTAIN BELLAMY (3.50 Southwell)
BET 3.8pts win and placed SAMMY SPIDERMAN (4.00 Ayr)
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