THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s four Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action gets underway at 12pm with SHEFFIELD UNITED v LEEDS.

SHEFFIELD UNITED V LEEDS

12pm We have another fascinating day ahead in the Premier League! Leeds have been involved in two 4-3 thrillers in the opening two weeks of action, one wonder what they will give us today! They face a Sheffield United side who have lost their two opening games to Wolves and Aston Villa without scoring. They were unlucky to lose a very tight game with Villa, but that is the type of run they’ve been on since returning from lockdown.

Although Leeds games have been jam packed with goals, they actually haven’t been banging the door down in front of goal. They have only created an xG of 0.33 and 1.43, indeed Fulham actually created a better xG last weekend. I would like to oppose Leeds looking at the numbers, however I can’t support Sheffield United in their current state. I’m not surprised to see a very open market with both sides more or less the same price. In a tight game, the draw is worth having a small investment on at 3.45 to start the day.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshulee

MATCH STATS

  • Sheffield United have won four of their last five league games against Leeds (L1); this will be the first top-flight meeting between the sides since a 2-2 draw in March 1994.
  • Leeds won their last league visit to Bramall Lane against Sheffield United, 1-0 in December 2018. They’ve not won back-to-back away games against the Blades since April 1992.
  • 31 goals have been scored over the last eight top-flight meetings between Sheffield United (12) and Leeds (19), with the Whites winning six of those matches (D1 L1).
  • This will be the first Yorkshire derby in the Premier League since May 2001, when Leeds United beat Bradford City 6-1 in their penultimate game of the 2000-01 campaign.
  • Leeds United’s first two Premier League games this season have seen 14 goals scored (7 for, 7 against), more than in any other team’s first two matches of a Premier League campaign. They are the first top-flight side to both score and concede seven goals in their first two matches since Liverpool in the 1932-33 season.
  • Only twice in their history have Sheffield United started a league campaign with three consecutive defeats – in the 1966-67 top-flight, and in the second tier in 1995-96.
  • Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Premier League away games, since a 1-0 win at Charlton in November 2003. The Whites have won just one of those 13 matches, drawing two and losing 10.
  • No side has had fewer shots than Sheffield United in the Premier League this season (13), with the Blades the only side yet to score. Indeed, since their return to the top-flight last season, Sheffield United are averaging just nine shots per Premier League game, fewer than any other side to have played in both campaigns.
  • Should either Mateusz Klich or Patrick Bamford score for Leeds United in this game, they would become the first player to score in their first three top-flight appearances for the club, with both players on the scoresheet against Liverpool and Fulham. o Leeds captain Liam Cooper is set to make his 200th appearance for the club, becoming the first player to reach that tally since Luciano Becchio in 2012. Cooper’s start against Fulham on MD2 came 10 years and 359 days since his first Premier League start in September 2009 for Hull against Liverpool, setting a new record for time between a player’s first two Premier League starts.

TOTTENHAM V NEWCASTLE

2pm After a bad start to the Premier League when losing to Everton on the opening weekend, things have gone well for Spurs. They won a Europa League qualifier, signed Gareth Bale again and beat Southampton 5-2 last weekend. Things weren’t looking so rosy when Southampton took the lead though! Their midweek Carabao Cup clash was postponed due to Covid19, while Newcastle beat Morecambe 7-0 on Wednesday. We finally got a deserved win against Newcastle last weekend with Brighton at 2.92. Newcastle’s xG numbers have been very poor for a while now, and it’s about time their results reflected it.

Spurs should get the job done here, because Newcastle are a very poor side and there for the taking. Stakes should be kept reasonably low however, as Spurs aren’t a side to trust at the moment. They gave up an xG of 2.47 against Southampton last weekend and while Newcastle have created very little recently – Spurs still make a certain amount of mistakes per game. Newcastle also give away chances for fun however, and while Spurs have their issues, they can outclass this Newcastle side.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Newcastle at 1.49 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotnew

MATCH STATS

  • Tottenham have won five of their last six league meetings with Newcastle United, although the only exception was in this exact fixture last season when the Magpies won 1-0, which was also on MD3.
  • Against no side have Newcastle won more Premier League away games than their 10 against Tottenham, with the Magpies winning four of their last six visits to Spurs (L2). Indeed, only Man Utd (13) and Chelsea (12) have won more often at Spurs in the competition than Newcastle.
  • Of Premier League fixtures to have been played on at least 50 occasions, only Aston Villa v Liverpool (40% – 20/50) has seen a higher percentage of away wins than Newcastle v Tottenham (36% – 18/50).
  • Tottenham haven’t lost consecutive home league games since January 2019 (vs Wolves and Manchester United), while they’ve not lost their first two home games of a Premier League campaign since 2008-09 (vs Sunderland and Aston Villa).
  • Newcastle have won four of their last seven Premier League games in London (L3), including victory at West Ham on the opening weekend. The Magpies had only won three of their previous 24 top-flight matches in the capital (D3 L18).
  • Newcastle haven’t won both of their first two away games in a single league campaign since 1995-96, when they finished second under Kevin Keegan.
  • Newcastle have scored with both of their shots on target so far in this Premier League campaign, with the Magpies failing to have a single such effort in their 0-3 defeat to Brighton.
  • Tottenham boss José Mourinho has won all eight of his home matches against Newcastle United as a manager in all competitions (six with Chelsea, two with Manchester United) – it’s his best 100% home winning record against any side in his managerial career.
  • Harry Kane assisted all four of Son Heung-min’s goals in Tottenham’s 5-2 victory at Southampton last weekend. Since the start of 2015-16, the pair have combined for more Premier League goals than any other duo in the competition (24).
  • Only against Crystal Palace (532) has Newcastle striker Callum Wilson played more Premier League minutes without scoring than he has vs Tottenham Hotspur (509).

MANCHESTER CITY V LEICESTER

4.30pm This is a very interesting fixture. The market seems very confident on a Man City win, with them trading 1.31 at the time of writing. They opened their season with an impressive 3-1 win away to Wolves – that’s been a tricky fixture for them in the past but the result was never in doubt. Leicester mixed it with the big boys at the beginning of last season, but they really finished the season poorly and fell out of the Top Four – it was quite remarkable too given how far ahead they were. They have won their opening two fixtures, but the cracks are showing.

They managed to beat Burnley 4-2 last weekend, but xG said that was an unfair result with Leicester only creating an xG of 1.33. Burnley actually created more goal-scoring chances, and Leicester were very lucky to score four times. They will have to defend more today against this City side who won’t give them the ball much. The market is expecting a lot of goals here, but I think we’ll see a cagey start and Leicester being a little negative. Under 3.5 goals looks over-priced at 1.85 and I’m happy to take those odds.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcilcr

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Leicester City, losing the other 1-2 on Boxing Day in the 2018-19 season.
  • Leicester have lost each of their last four Premier League trips to Manchester City since a 3-1 win in the Foxes’ title-winning 2015-16 season; this is their longest away league losing streak to the Citizens since August 1961 (five games).
  • Manchester City have never lost their opening home match in any of their last 25 top-flight campaigns (W16 D9), with their last such defeat coming in the 1989-90 campaign against Southampton (1-2).
  • Leicester have never won their opening three matches in a single top-flight campaign before – the last time the Foxes did so in any division was in the 1922-23 second tier.
  • Man City are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games (W10 D1), scoring at least twice in each match. Indeed, the Citizens have won their last seven at the Etihad by an aggregate score of 26-1.
  • Manchester City have been leading by 2+ goals at half-time in each of their last six Premier League matches, a record such run in the competition’s history.
  • Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in 13 goals in his last 10 Premier League starts (7 goals, 6 assists). He’s only failed to register a single goal involvement in two of those eight games, though one of those was against Leicester (1-0 in February).
  • Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored in four of his five Premier League appearances against Leicester (four goals); only against Everton (7) has he netted more in the competition.
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored five and assisted one more in his last eight appearances against Man City in the Premier League, netting at the Etihad last term. He’s also the only player to score a top-flight hat-trick against a side managed by Pep Guardiola, doing so in the Foxes 4-2 win against Man City in December 2016.
  • Manchester City have won 34 of the 35 Premier League games in which Gabriel Jesus has scored, the highest such win rate for any player in the competition (97.1%, min. 20 games scored). The Citizens have won the last 32 league games in which the Brazilian has found the net.

WEST HAM V WOLVES

7pm We end the day with another fascinating market. Wolves are the clear favourites at 2.16 but West Ham shown signs last week that they are starting to create the chances that they did towards the end of last season. The only problem is David Moyes along with a couple of other West Ham players tested positive for Covid19 earlier this week, so we’ll just have to wait and see the team news. Leyton Orient’s Carabao Cup game against Spurs was postponed at the last minute midweek.

Despite West Ham having some issues, I like the Wolves lay here at 2.16. I am keeping stakes to a minimum considering the situation; however West Ham created an xG of 2.32 against Arsenal and were very unlucky to lose the game. I take on board Wolves are a very solid side and that West Ham could have issues without David Moyes this week but I think the 2.16 lay is a bit of value and worth a small investment.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Wolves to beat West Ham at 2.16 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhuwlv

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham United have lost each of their last four Premier League meetings with Wolves without scoring a single goal; the Hammers’ last win over them in the competition was back on New Year’s Day 2011 (2-0).
  • Wolves have won both of their Premier League visits to the London Stadium since their promotion in 2018 – it’s the first time they have ever won back-to-back away league games at West Ham.
  • Wolves lost their last Premier League game in London 0-2 at Chelsea on the final day of the 2019-20 season; they haven’t lost back-to-back away Premier League games in the capital since November 2011, when they lost six in a row.
  • West Ham have lost each of their opening three league matches in two of the last three seasons (2017-18 and 2018-19). They’d only lost their first three games in two of their previous 45 league campaigns prior to this.
  • West Ham haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 Premier League home games (W3 D3 L4), since beating Bournemouth 4-0 in David Moyes’ first game back in charge. It’s their longest run of conceding in home Premier League games since a run of 12 between April-December 2009.
  • Wolves have lost four of their last eight Premier League games (W3 D1), as many as they had in their previous 27 in the competition (W13 D10 L4).
  • Wolves have scored with three of their five shots on target so far this season, netting with their only effort on target in their 1-3 defeat against Man City last time out.
  • Since the Premier League restarted last season in June, no player has scored more goals in the competition than West Ham’s Michail Antonio (9). He’s netted 60% of the Hammers’ league goals in that time (9/15).
  • Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has scored four goals in his last six Premier League games, netting in both appearances so far this season. He last scored in three consecutively back in November 2019.
  • Raúl Jiménez has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games against West Ham for Wolves, including the opening goal in his side’s 2-0 win at the London Stadium last season.

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