LOVE’S LABOURS WILL BE LOST, SAYS BETDAQ ARC MARKET: Daqman warned yesterday that soft ground was likely for the Arc De Triomphe and that it wouldn’t suit the favourite, Love. In fact, there’s already been heavy rain and Longchamp is ‘very soft’ with more to come, and Love has been deposed at the front of the market by dual winner Enable. Today we look at the Daqman ratings for the 23 acceptors after the first forfeit stage, adding trainerform and full cover on ground preference.
TODAY: DAQMAN went close on Monday when his first selection El Picador was pipped a head at 6/1. He was right to oppose the favourite Le Chiffre but didn’t reckon on the 12/1 winner Striding Edge. He keeps Tuesday’s stakes low again.
ENABLE REMAINS THE ONE TO BEAT
⚠️ HEADS UP: Daqman’s ratings for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, with 2020 trainer stats. The +sign is for three-year-olds with an allowance. Going preferences are updated for all 23 acceptors for the race at Longchamp, Sunday.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Enable moved back to the front of the BETDAQ Sportsbook on the race at 2.87, with 3.25 Love, 9.0 Stradivarius and 13.0 bar. Aidan O’Brien said that the ground was ‘not an advantage’ for Love. There was a move for Telecaster (17.0) after trainer Hughie Morrison welcomed the rain.
128 Enable (John Gosden 116 wins, 25%) any going; won an Arc on soft.
126 Persian King (Andre Fabre 73 wins, 20%); has won on heavy.
125 Stradivarius (John Gosden 116 wins, 25%) winner on all types of going.
122 Love+ (Aidan O’Brien 94 wins, 18%) won only on good and g/firm.
121 Japan (Aidan O’Brien 94 wins, 18%) good to soft (twice) and heavy.
120 Serpentine+ (Aidan O’Brien 94 wins, 18%) kept to a sound surface.
119 Sottsass (Jean-Claude Rouget 104 wins, 24%) has won on the soft.
118 Logician (John Gosden 116 wins, 25%) not raced on soft or heavy.
118 Raabihah+ (Jean-Claude Rouget 104 wins, 24%) Diane defeat on g/soft.
118 Way To Paris (Andrea Marcialis 63 wins, 16%) acts on any going.
117 Sovereign (Aidan O’Brien 94 wins, 18%) kept largely to good ground.
114 Buckhurst (Joseph O’Brien 94 wins, 16%) twice a winner on soft.
114 Deidre (Mitsuru Hashida) firm/good ground mare; lost 2-2 on the soft.
114 Royal Julius (Jerome Reynier 62 wins, 14%) acts on any going.
113 Telecaster (Hughie Morrison 16 wins, 10%) winner g/soft and heavy.
109 Mogul+ (Aidan O’Brien 94 wins, 18%) largely kept to good ground.
105 Crossfirehurricane+ (Joseph O’Brien 94 wins, 16%) g/firm, AW wins.
105 In Swoop+ (Francis-Henri Graffard 50 wins, 22%) prefers soft terrain.
105 New York Girl+ (Joseph O’Brien 94 wins, 16%) has won on heavy.
104 Degraves+ (Joseph O’Brien 94 wins, 16%) winner twice on soft/heavy.
104 Gold Trip+ (Fabrice Chappet 41 wins, 14%) best form on soft, heavy.
103 Chachnak+ (Fabrice Vermeulen 50 wins, 12%) g/soft ok but 0-2 on soft.
081 Thames River+ (Joseph O’Brien 94 wins, 16%) won only on AW surface.
SUCELLUS LOOKS SUPER
⭕ 3.50 Ayr There was plenty to like about Sucellus and his run at York last time out when finishing third to Mr Carpenter.
He was staying on really strongly inside the final furlong and the resulting 2lb hike in the weights doesn’t look overly harsh.
He’s generally been competing at a much higher level (including Silver Hunt Cup at Ascot earlier in the year) and should hopefully be rewarded with a confidence boosting win here on his first trip to Scotland.
His trainer Roger Fell is ticking over nicely with four winners in the last fortnight.
A trainer with even better stats is James Bethell (5 winners from last 13) so his Abbotside has to be respected despite a career CV of 663-3222. The handicapper has nudged him down a pound but all his races so far this season have come at class 5 level and he is up a grade today.
A bigger danger may emerge from the Ed Walker trained, Hollie Doyle ridden, Bucephalus on his first since being gelded. He was a beaten favourite when last seen at Haydock but it came at class 3 level and there were legitimate excuses.
I’M NO MATE OF BILLY
⭕ 4.25 Ayr One for the stayers and the obvious starting point is Billy No Mates who is on for the hat-trick after his win at Haydock last week. It ended up being a blanket finish (a length and a half between first four home) and ‘Billy’ might struggle under the statutory 5lb penalty.
A bigger concern though is that his two recent wins have both come with give in the ground and his form on good and better is much more modest.
Theatro and Clearance are prominent in the market but trainer form puts me off. 1-23 and 1-53 respectively.
Beechwood Jude was a heavy ground winner at Catterick last month and is another that seemingly would want more give.
Dark Heart has been gelded and is hard to quantify – his only win coming on the all-weather. His form so far this season has been very modest but it would come as no surprise to see him improve and down another 3lb could be one of the few in here that is genuinely well handicapped given he remains relatively unexposed.
HAVE AN INSTINCT FOR THE NAP
⭕ 5.40 Wolverhampton It might be worth sticking with the Sir Mark Prescott trained Animal Instinct who now has cheekpieces fitted for the first time.
He was chasing a hat-trick last time out at Chelmsford and didn’t lose much in defeat when a half length runner-up to Oh This Is Up. It was a decent class 2 handicap and he drops two rungs down the class ladder for this.
Main danger Impatient is also a class dropper but is unproven on Tapeta and his only win to date has come with the visor on – which it isn’t on tonight.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.3pts win SUCELLUS (3.50 Ayr)
BET 2.1pts win DARK HEART (4.25 Ayr)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) ANIMAL INSTINCT (5.40 Wolverhampton)
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