KITTEN CLAWS IN 20 POINTS AS BETDAQ OUTSIDERS ARE ONE-THREE: With just over a furlong to go, Daqman had the clear leaders in the maiden fillies’ race at Nottingham yesterday, one at 8.9 on BETDAQ, one at 13.0, both to win 20 points, so win who you like! Result Little Kitten (WON 13-2), Late Morning (3rd 10-1) and a profit on the day.
TODAY: ARC COUNTDOWN: LOVE NOT DECLARED: Big-race wins of all 15 acceptors for the Arc, including Derby-winner Serpentine who has been supplemented, are analysed today after the defection of Love this morning.
TOMORROW: Stats and facts on the other major races at Longchamp.
SATURDAY, SUNDAY: Ascot, Newmarket and Longchamp, including ABC guide to the Arc in Daqman’s verdict
LOVE LOST FROM THE ARC LINE-UP
Fifteen Love! Only 15 of the 16 probables accepted for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe today. The ace who has smashed out is the original favourite, Love, trained by Aidan O’Brien.
The filly was quickly dislodged from pole position in the market when rain changed the ground to the prospect of heavy. Now she is out of the tournament altogether.
Love was winner of the 1,000 Guineas, and the Epsom and Yorkshire Oaks in an unbeaten hat-trick this term, but all were run on good ground.
O’Brien still has Japan, Mogul, Sovereign and the just-supplemented Epsom Derby winner Serpentine in the race on Sunday.
Love is now expected to go straight to the Breeders Cup. Her defection from the Arc leaves Ryan Moore free to ride one of the four others.
BIG-RACE FORM FOR A £25m FIELD
⭕ 3.05 Longchamp, Sunday (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, 15 acceptors) Winners of 87 races will line up for Sunday’s Arc. This is the field in order of their numerical success, with their big-race form and earnings. The 15 probables have amassed more than £25,000,000 in prizemoney, with Enable bagging the major share, small change short of £11,000,000,
112 Stradivarius (16 wins from 24 starts: earnings £2,874,000) Ascot Gold Cup (3), Goodwood Cup (4), Yorkshire Cup (2), Doncaster Cup (2), but has never won over 1m 4f.
211 Enable (15 wins from 18 starts: earnings £10,724,000) Won four Oaks, the King George and the Arc de Triomphe as a three-year-old. Arc double and Breeders Cup Turf in 2018. King George treble completed 2019-20.
141 Persian King (8 wins from 12 starts: earnings £1,006,000) won the 2019 French 2,000 Guineas and 2020 Prix Du Moulin.
200 Deirdre (8 wins from 31 starts: earnings £4,000,500) 2019 Nassau Stakes, Goodwood.
210 Way To Paris (6 wins from 23 starts: earnings £561,000) double of Grand Prix de Chantilly and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in 2020.
202 Royal Julius (6 wins from 37 starts: earnings £819,000) runner-up in the Italian Derby
124 Sottsass (5 wins from 11 starts: earnings £1,524,000) winner of the 2019 French Derby from Persian King, and third to Waldgeist and Enable in the Arc.
330 Japan (5 wins from 13 starts: earnings £1,643,500) won the 2019 Grand Prix de Paris and York International; fourth in the Arc. Third 2020 Coral-Eclipse and King George.
101 Chachnak (4 wins from 9 races: earnings £81,800) has won two at Group-3 level this year.
131 Mogul (4 wins from 9 starts: earnings £340,400) won the Grand Prix De Paris over the Arc CD from In Swoop and Gold Trip.
412 Raabihah (3 wins from 5 starts: earnings £147,500) fourth in the French Oaks, second in the Vermeille.
312 In Swoop (2 wins from 4 starts: earnings £415,900) won the German Derby and second to Mogul in the Grand Prix de Paris.
114 Serpentine (2 wins from 5 starts: earnings £308,700) won the Epsom Derby (Mogul sixth). Supplemented.
320 Sovereign (2 wins from 12 starts: earnings £900,600) won 2019 Irish Derby and second to Enable in the 2020 King George.
103 Gold Trip (1 win from six starts: earnings £89,000) Third to Mogul and In Swoop in the 2020 Grand Prix de Paris.
‘HOODIE’ A HIDDEN HORSE AT 15.0
⚠️ HEADS UP: The Flat-racing menu is really a diet for punters today. The first five races at Salisbury and the first three at Chelmsford are for two-year-olds only, 92 maidens or not raced.
⭕ 2.55 Warwick The handicapper has hiked Dariya 10lb for back-to-back wins in September earned by a claimer, so the penalty and the switch to a senior jockey could be costly.
For instance, Dariya, a drifter in the early exchanges today, will have to give 4lb to arch-rival, Sid Hoodie, who was a good 10lb his superior in this very race a year ago.
Another CD winner – only 10 days ago – is Pink Sheets, who has a 7lb penalty, and the one I like is Princess T, though beaten favourite at Perth.
She went down narrowly (less than two lengths) to a winner since that day, who was in first-time blinkers and receiving a stone. BETDAQ 4.5.
Sid Hoodie didn’t look ready on his reappearance a month ago but won second race back after a break twice last year, and the stable came out of the doldrums with a winner on Friday. I had a small interest at BETDAQ 15.0.
⭕ 3.05 Salisbury Three-year-olds have the best record in this 6f handicap and the grey colt With Respect should get the easy surface he needs, dropped back close to his winning trip.
Jim Crowley booked and came in to 9.9 on BETDAQ, after early bookmaker prices around 12-1 and 14-1.
Though 5-1 with some bookies, May Remain was double those odds at 11.0 on the BETDAQ exchange, despite a neck defeat in a big field at Ascot, giving 8lb to the winner.
KHAALIS BRED FOR A LEAP FORWARD
⭕ 3.30 Warwick Nicky Henderson’s last three novice runners have all won, and he is 6-10 in bumpers since June.
In this Warwick bumper, Captain Morgs is his only runner today and the only ride for Nico De Boinville. Averaging around 2.5.
⭕ 7.00 Chelmsford Khaalis, an easy course-and-distance winner a fortnight ago, is by a sire who quickly took off into pattern company after an initial novice-race success.
Kinsman could improve for tongue-tie and being gelded, and Sidereal’s sole success came under Oisin Murphy, who returns to the saddle today but he was behind the fully-exposed Daafr here at Chelmsford the last day.
I was happy with 4.7 Khaalis on BETDAQ but the three I’ve talked about – Daafr, Khaalis and Kinsman – are the three pace horses in the race, all drawn high, so I’m expecting quite a scrap.
DANCING NAPPED AT THE WEIGHTS
⭕ 4.30 Ffos Las Dancing In The Sky, now rated 115 over hurdles, gets in here off 110, and is additionally claimed off for 7lb, which means he is 12lb well in and racing off a mark 11lb below his new chase rating which he achieved with a narrow success at Perth last week.
That day at Perth, Dancing In The Sky was one of Dr Richard Newland’s three winners from his last five starters. He has a 27% strike rate at Ffos Las.
The mare Fool To Cry got off the mark the last day and is the obvious danger under Sam Twiston-Davies, if she can repeat that, though her stable is currently 0-13.
The odds of its runners suggest all is not well (20-1, 25-1, 33-1, 40-1, 50-1 twice, 80-1 and 150-1). No wonder layers hoped to make fools of us this morning, with tempting offers.
That makes Dancing In The Sky nap value at 2.7, with the field drifted away from him in the BETDAQ market (6.8 bar the one).
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 Warwick (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.4pts win SID HOODIE
BET 2.8pts win PRINCESS T
3.05 Salisbury (win 20 each)
BET 2.25pts win WITH RESPECT
BET 2pts win MAY REMAIN
3.30 Warwick (win 10)
BET 6.5pts win CAPTAIN MORGS
4.30 Ffos Las (win 10, nap)
BET 5.75pts win DANCING IN THE SKY
7.00 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win KHAALIS
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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