THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s three Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended bet. It’s underway at 2pm with SOUTHAMPTON v EVERTON, at 4.30pm WOLVES v NEWCASTLE and ARSENAL v LEICESTER at 7.15pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
SOUTHAMPTON V EVERTON
2pm We kick off Super Sunday with Southampton hosting Everton. The Toffees have had a dream start to the season and sat on top of the table heading into the weekend. We have a very open market here, and should have a very competitive game. Everton have obviously started very well, while Southampton are sitting in mid table. Their under-lining numbers have been impressive though, and they have started to grind out results after a slow start. They have a good record here against Everton too, winning five of their last seven Premier League games.
While Everton have had a bright start to the season but they have had a reasonably easy fixture list since beating Spurs on the opening day. They’ve been impressive when beating West Brom, Crystal Palace and Brighton but they should be beating sides like that. Liverpool comfortably beat them on xG last weekend although the game finished 2-2. I think this will be a good game between two sides playing some decent football. Everton might just edge it as they are full of confidence, but I like the draw at 3.55 which looks too big.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouevr
MATCH STATS
- Southampton have won five of their last seven home Premier League matches against Everton (L2), but they were beaten 1-2 last season at St. Mary’s.
- Everton are looking to win consecutive away top-flight visits to Southampton for the first time since January 1992 under Howard Kendall.
- Southampton have kept more Premier League clean sheets against Everton than they have vs any other side in the competition, with 10 of their 13 shutouts against them coming in home games (77%).
- Southampton have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League games (W6 D4), losing both of their opening two matches this season. Saints are looking to pick up back-to-back home league wins for the first time since December 2019.
- Though they lost their 100% winning start to the season last time out, Everton are looking to remain unbeaten in each of their first six games for only the third time in the Premier League era, also doing so in 2006-07 and 2013-14.
- Everton have won each of their last three Premier League away games, last winning four consecutively on the road in the top-flight back in December 1985.
- No side has scored more headed goals in Premier League history than Everton (322, level with Manchester United). Indeed, the Toffees have scored a league-high six headed goals so far this season, with both strikes last time out against Liverpool coming via this method.
- Danny Ings has scored in four of his five appearances in all competitions against Everton for Southampton, netting four goals; he only has more goals against Spurs (5) than he does against the Toffees for the club.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in all five of Everton’s Premier League games this season, netting seven goals in total. The only player in Premier League history to score in each of his side’s first six games to a campaign is Sergio Agüero, who did so with Manchester City last season.
- Coming into this weekend’s games, only Son Heung-min (16) has created more chances in the Premier League this season than Everton’s James Rodríguez (15). The Colombian has had a hand in six goals in his five appearances so far (3 goals, 3 assists), with all three of his assists being for headers from set-piece situations.
WOLVES V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm After a shaky run when they conceded seven goals in two games, Wolves look back to themselves. They are doing what they do best, grinding out close games – they sat in sixth position prior to Matchday six and they’ll be hoping to hold onto that position for the rest of the season. This is a great chance for them to take another three points as Newcastle are a poor side. They have been getting results, I will give them that, but their performances just don’t deserve the number of points they get. On xG, they would have went down last season.
Wolves have grinded out two 1-0 wins in their last two games against Leeds and Fulham, but they aren’t creating a huge amount of chances. Leeds actually created more than them. Their highest xG number this season is 1.87 and that came against Sheffield United who have started the season poorly. Since then they’ve created 0.80, 0.61, 1.54 and 0.48. I’m not a fan of Newcastle, and I expect another very tight game involving Wolves. Under 2.5 goals is 1.68 and that looks the value play.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolnwc
MATCH STATS
- Seven of the 10 Premier League matches between Wolves and Newcastle have ended as draws, including each of the last three (all 1-1). Among fixtures to be played at least 10 times, this has seen the joint-highest percentage of games drawn, along with Stoke vs Wigan and Bournemouth vs Watford (all 70%).
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six away league games against Wolves (W2 D4), since a 0-1 loss in April 1993.
- Since a 0-0 draw in their first ever top-flight meeting at Wolves in December 1898, Newcastle have kept only two clean sheets in their 37 such trips since (2-0 in March 1906 and 1-0 in May 1951), conceding 52 goals in 25 games since their most recent shutout.
- Both teams have scored in each of the 10 Premier League meetings between Wolves and Newcastle – it’s the most played fixture in the competition in which neither side has kept a clean sheet.
- Wolves have kept seven clean sheets in their last nine Premier League home games, losing both matches in which they’ve conceded in that run (W5 D2).
- Following their win at West Ham and draw with Tottenham, Newcastle are looking to remain unbeaten through their first three away games of a Premier League season for the first time since 2011-12 under Alan Pardew.
- Wolves’ last eight wins in the Premier League have all been to nil, failing to win any of their last six league games in which they’ve conceded, since beating Spurs 3-2 in March (D1 L5).
- Newcastle boss Steve Bruce is winless in his last seven away league matches against Wolves (D2 L5), since leading Birmingham to a 3-2 win there in April 2007 in the Championship.
- Since the start of last season, Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has scored more winning goals in the Premier League than any other player (10), including the only goal in Wolves’ victory at Leeds last time out.
- Callum Wilson has scored in both of Newcastle’s away Premier League games this season – no player has ever scored in each of the Magpies’ first three games on the road in the competition before.
ARSENAL V LEICESTER
7.15pm We finish the day with a fascinating clash between Arsenal and Leicester. It’s fair to say both sides will be pushing for Europa League spots this season, so even this early in the season a win for either would be a huge boost. Both have had very up and down starts to the season – neither have had a draw yet! They have identical records too; winning three and losing two. While both also won on Thursday in the Europa League. It’s hard to see anything but a close game here.
With all the above in mind, I’m very surprised to see Arsenal at odds on here. They look the best lay of the weekend for me at 1.98 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. I fully take on board that Arteta has given the squad more confidence, but based on xG numbers he hasn’t improved them. They have had a good run of results, but they were very lucky to beat West Ham 2-1 and Sheffield United by the same score line. West Ham actually beat them 2.32 to 1.33 on xG, and they only created 0.54 against Sheffield United. Leicester have their faults of course, and they were disappointing against West Ham and Aston Villa, but I can’t have Arsenal odds on here. I expect a much closer game than that, and the value it with laying Arsenal.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Leicester at 1.98 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarslcr
MATCH STATS
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 27 home meetings with Leicester in all competitions (W20 D7), since a 0-2 loss in September 1973.
- Leicester have played more Premier League away games against Arsenal without ever winning than they have vs any other opponent in the competition (14 – D2 L12). The Foxes 1-1 draw at the Emirates last season ended a run of 12 straight away league losses against the Gunners.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games (W9 D2), after losing their final three at the Emirates in 2019. However, one of those failures to win in this run was against Leicester in July.
- Arsenal haven’t lost any of their last 32 Premier League home games in the month of October (W26 D6) since a 1-2 loss against Blackburn in 2002. Only Manchester United (42 in November) and Chelsea (33 in March) are on longer current unbeaten home runs in a specific month in the competition.
- Leicester have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing three in a row in February 2019 under Claude Puel. However, the Foxes have won their last two league games on the road by an aggregate score of 8-2.
- Only Aston Villa (2) have conceded fewer Premier League goals than Arsenal (6) this season coming into the weekend’s games. However, the Gunners haven’t kept a clean sheet since their opening day victory at Fulham.
- Only Crystal Palace (32) and West Brom (40) have had fewer shots than Arsenal in the Premier League this season (41). At home, the Gunners have managed just 13 attempts across their two games this season, but have managed to win them both.
- Leicester have the best shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season, netting with just under 25% of their efforts (12/49). However, the Foxes have failed to score with any of their last 15 attempts across their last two games.
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored 10 goals in his 10 Premier League starts against Arsenal, more than he’s netted against any other opponent in the competition. Indeed, only Wayne Rooney (12) has scored more Premier League goals against the Gunners than Vardy.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has failed to score in any of his last four Premier League games. The Gabonese forward last went five league games without a goal back in November 2014 with Borussia Dortmund.
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