CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the Champions League action between SHAKHTAR DONETSK v INTER MILAN, MARSEILLE v MANCHESTER CITY and LIVERPOOL v FC MIDTJYLLAND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SHAKHTAR DONETSK V INTER MILAN
5.55pm We all set for another excellent week in the Champions League with the fixtures coming up thick and fast! We start with Shakhtar Donetsk hosting Inter Milan after their excellent 3-2 win over Real Madrid last week. They kept Real down to an xG of 1.05 in a very impressive defensive performance. It hasn’t been so long since these sides met in the Europa League however, with Inter Milan running out 5-0 winners in August. You’d have to assume Shakhtar trying to play a cagey game here, and I’m sure they would take a draw without the game being played.
Inter Milan have started the season strongly however, and Shakhtar will have their hands full trying to stop them. They could only manage a 2-2 draw with Gladbach last week, however they were very unlucky – winning the game 3.51 to 1.45 on xG. They lost to AC Milan but actually won that game marginally on xG too, so they have barely put a foot wrong this season. I fully respect Shakhtar are a rock solid side but the 1.89 on Inter Milan is too tempting to turn down here, and it’s worth a small investment to start the evening.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Inter Milan to beat Shakhtar Donetsk on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQShaInt
MARSEILLE V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm Manchester City will start this game the shortest price of any away side in the Champions League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, however, are they worth backing at 1.4 given all their issues? They’ve only managed two draws in their last two Premier League away games, with another disappointing performance against West Ham. City’s issues at the back are well documented but they’ve had a lot of problems going forward at the start of the season. Since their 3-1 win over Wolves, they haven’t created an xG of over 2. That’s very unlike them.
Of course we must remember how many levels Marseille are below City. While City are clearly not themselves, they are unlikely to be truly tested in this fixture. Marseille have 15 points from eight games in Ligue 1, and are already three points behind PSG even though PSG have lost twice which is unlike them. This could be a confidence booster for City, but they might not score many. Under 3.5 goals is worth backing at 1.64, Marseille don’t see a lot of goals in their games and with City not creating chances we could easily see a 1-0 or 2-0 City win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMarMci
LIVERPOOL V FC MIDTJYLLAND
8pm You’d assume this will be an easy nights work for Liverpool, and the markets agree with Liverpool trading as short as 1.14 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. With odds like that, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. The gulf in class between the sides here is massive, and we seen the first evidence of how Midtjylland will struggle as they lost 4-0 to Atalanta last week. Liverpool are adjusting to life without Virgil van Dijk but it’s unlikely that they will be tested tonight.
On paper, Liverpool have only won their last two games by one goal and before that could only manage a draw with Everton. However, their xG numbers paint a different picture. They were unlucky not to score more against Sheffield United at the weekend, and although a draw would have been a fair result against Ajax, a draw wasn’t a fair result against Everton with them winning the game 2.85 to 1.35 on xG. The signs are there that Liverpool are starting to create a lot of chances and with the gulf is class massive here – I think Liverpool can run riot. Any Other Home Win is worth backing at 2.34 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQLivMdt
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