70-POINT STRIKE LINED UP ON BETDAQ DAY AT PUNCHESTOWN: Hey Jude; thanks for your 4-1 win yesterday! Beechwood Jude (WON 4-1) gave Daqman a break-even day. Maybe he should have picked Breakeven, favourite in the first on a card of six BETDAQ races at Punchestown today, but the race contains one of his provisional Fortune Cookies, an ‘early bird’ which was 8.7 this morning. So around 70 points is the target, with another Breakeven saver!
Headlines:
🔹 VANILLIER HAS A TOUCH OF CLASS
🔹 SPARE A DIME FOR THE BETDAQ 8.9
🔹 HE’S RUN AND WON FOR THE MONEY
🔹 I’M WALKING OUT WITH THE LADIES
🔹 THUNDER SET TO DEFY THE WEIGHT
🔹 FRED WILD CARD FOR TOP NOVICE
VANILLIER HAS A TOUCH OF CLASS
⭕ 12.55 Punchestown (BETDAQ 2% Commission Exchange Maiden Hurdle) Impressive winner of a three-mile Point in December, the grey Vanillier was a not-needed reserve at Wexford on Sunday, so starts his hurdles career here at Punchestown for Gavin Cromwell.
The fourth horse in the Point is the only runner since from the first four that day. He went on to a six-lengths success next time, while the runner-up, Fishkov, has gone to Harry Fry and makes his first appearance in an NH Flat race at Uttoxeter on Friday.
Vanillier’s sire, Martaline, gives him a touch of class, as a Group-2 winner on the Flat at Maisons-Laffitte when beating Westerner, who would go on to dominate the French Cup races of the time, winning the Cadran, Royal Oak and Gladiateur.
Leading rider here, Rachael Blackmore, partners Gigginstown’s Henry De Bromhead newcomer Fissa, while Last Minute Man is already a fair hurdler, who goes well fresh but is still a maiden at eight years old now, so success for him would condemn the race for a poor bunch of youngsters and I don’t think it is.
Breakeven has winning bumper form in the book after a Points double in the Spring, so he goes into the mix with Fissa and Vanillier (BETDAQ 8.7), and must be my saver.
SPARE A DIME FOR THE BETDAQ 8.9
⭕ 1.25 Punchestown Fully Charged, another grey and another for Rachael Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead, was a good second here before breaking his maiden in a 22-lengths romp at Limerick.
Not disgraced, fourth, returning to Punchestown over further in February, he’s back in trip today to around the Limerick winning distance. Absence of 228 days a worry.
The in-form mare Dime A Dozen looks a formidable opponent, and a solid place bet, never out of the first three in 13 Rules races and five Points. I took 8.9 the win on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, with a place-bet offer to cover the win stake.
Arcadian Sunrise has shown his best form at 2m but Rhythm Divine, second at Gowran to the smart Buildmeupbuttercup, posted a 2m 4f win at Bellewstown in August (went clear).
What reduces confidence in the Divine are the mare’s Punchestown form figures of 3200, the last one in September when favourite and failing to get anything from her good position throughout the race.
HE’S RUN AND WON FOR THE MONEY
⭕ 1.55 Punchestown (Bet 10 Get 10 On BETDAQ Virtuals Rated Novice Hurdle) Is this hot or what! The front five in the market have won 12 times and have been placed in 28 of their 34 races (82%).
Coincidental to my opening-race reference to Westerner, he is the sire of Gavin Cromwell’s runner in this, Western Run, who is looking for a hat-trick here after winning back to back as favourite each time at Downpatrick and Killarney.
The last of the two was over further, beating winners, so no doubts about his stamina. I took BETDAQ offers of 4.6
Tullybeg is also a winner at Downpatrick, also over further, eased down, and the choice of Gordon Elliott for this.
Dewcup is up in trip, though the dam won over today’s distance all right, and Ruaille Buaille has done best at the minimum, including an odds-on Punchestown success (jumping errors at Galway the last day).
I’M WALKING OUT WITH THE LADIES
⭕ 2.25 Punchestown (Download the BETDAQ App Ladies Handicap Hurdle) Punters see Dreal Deal as ‘dright’ choice, favourite here after completing a short-odds treble with dual Flat wins after readily beating a big hurdles field at Navan over further than today. The runner-up went on to score at Kilbeggan.
Amateur Maxine O’Sullivan’s moderate hurdles form is a worry but her current two wins out of four (one bumper, one on the Flat) should have boosted her confidence for this.
Walking On Glass was second of 21 here at Punchestown in a decent handicap hurdle last December, and followed up this summer by beating Princess Zoe on the Flat at Navan, then scoring at the Galway Festival.
It’s a tough choice between the two but the BETDAQ 4.1 Walking On Glass may be a bit of value.
THUNDER SET TO DEFY THE WEIGHT
⭕ 2.55 Punchestown (BETDAQ % Commission Super Saturday Handicap Chase) Maybe Blaze A Trail is an appropriate winner in this celebration of the super zero-commission Saturdays we’ve been having on BETDAQ. And more to come.
The handicapper tries to force a dead-heat between Blaze A Trail and his Listowel conqueror, Bitview Colin, but James O’Sullivan can claim the full 7lb on Bitview this time and should hold on to some of the 12-lengths gap over his archrival.
Next question? Can Conor O’Dwyer’s Sunrise Lady confirm her leap forward in winning here at Punchestown two weeks back, or will her 9lb rise and drop back in trip let Baily Thunder back in?
Baily Thunder (BETDAQ 6.2) won eight lengths at Sligo in September. Makes handicap-chase debut here, as such a promising six-year-old that he already looks in need of better company. Gives weight but ‘receives age’ from all bar Blaze A Trail.
FRED WILD CARD FOR TOP NOVICE
⭕ 3.25 Punchestown (Buy 10 Get 10 BETDAQ Virtual Beginners’ Chase) This could be the launchpad for more than one successful chaser from a strong line-up of five dual winners or more.
Latest Exhibition is the class contender, landing a Leopardstown Grade 1 over hurdles before his second in the Albert Bartlett.
Moyross, Run Wild Fred and School Boy Hours have already had a taste of the bigger obstacles, and Longhouse Poet, who has Points experience, has always looked as though any hurdles success was a bonus before he met the big fences.
He was placed behind Latest Exhibition in the Leopardstown Grade 1 but there wasn’t much in it and the worry for favourite backers is that Exhibition’s trainer, Paul Nolan, has poor recent form (0-21 and without a win for eight weeks).
Latest Exhibition and Longhouse Poet have both been absent around eight months though both have won when fresh.
On a line through Monkfish, Run Wild Fred is close to the big two on hurdles form, has had that recent run over fences and is with Gordon Elliottt, who could have picked from any mount of young chasing prospects for this. BETDAQ 7.7 offers.
NAP Earth Leader (⭕ 4.10 Taunton at BETDAQ 4.0) has to be fit and ready while there is a sound surface to be had. His form in the last 18 months without ‘soft’ in the going return is 111111.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.55 Punchestown
FORTUNE COOKIE (early bird)
BET 10pts win VANILLIER
BET 3pts (saver) BREAKEVEN
1.25 Punchestown (win 10 plus place saver)
BET 1.25pts win and place DIME A DOZEN
1.55 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win WESTERN RUN
2.25 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 3pts win WALKING ON GLASS
2.55 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 2pts win BAILY THUNDER
3.25 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win RUN WILD FRED
4.10 Taunton (win 20, nap)
BET 6.5pts win EARTH LEADER
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