BULL’S-EYE HITS AS DAQMAN PUNCHES THE WEIGHT OF A 7-3 LEAD: There’s a strong card at Newbury today, featuring the Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle. Daqman has two bull’s-eye bets as part of his value challenge to Pricewise. Daqman leads 7-3 on winners and is 96.25 clear on points. Headlines:
🔹 ANEMOI BUT DON’T BE ANIMATED
🔹 TRUMP CARD PUTS ME OFF A PLAY
🔹 THE McFABULOUS CONUNDRUM..
🔹 GOOD DEAL FOR DELL BOY AT 8.3
TOMORROW: Don’t miss Daqman’s verdict on the Ladbrokes Trophy (check out Wednesday’s ABC Guide)
ANEMOI BUT DON’T BE ANIMATED
⭕ 12.15 Newbury Nicky Henderson, who launched hurdles-champion Buveur d’Air in this race six years to the day, runs Sprinter Sacre’s brother today for J P McManus.
Flinteur Sacre led on the bit in a Kempton bumper in February and eased clear, impressively. It was a slow time; it was modest opposition; but no doubting the family traits were there for all to see. Majestic.
⭕ 12.45 Newbury More novices, this time over fences in a limited handicap won twice in the last five years by Harry Whittington.
Here’s Harry again with Anemoi, who has followed up his novice-hurdle wins last season with a handicap hurdle first run back and a novices’ limited-handicap chase the last day.
But six horses here are locked together if the ratings are anywhere near: 137 (Financier), 136 Eritage alongside Anemoi, then Elusive Belle (135) and Scardura (134).
TRUMP CARD PUTS ME OFF A PLAY
⭕ 1.50 Newbury Fiddlerontheroof was Tolworth Hurdle level over the sticks (Grade 1); now he’s stepping up to Grace 2 over fences, after looking the part in two chases this autumn.
Caribbean Boy, beaten by The Big Bite at Doncaster, turned the tables at Haydock a month later in February, and is another with a future.
But don’t ignore Getaway Trump. He has shown a dislike to Cheltenham; delete that track and his form still standing is 11311. A race to watch.
⭕ 2.25 Newbury Old Grangewood (two wins in three years) goes for a third victory in this. Seemed transformed by a wind op when he won a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in January (Cepage behind) but hasn’t held that form.
I opposed a Anthony Honeyball favourite yesterday (his strike rate has now dropped to 1-15) and I can’t get excited about his novice, Sully D’Oc AA.
I fancy Defi Sacre, with his light weight. After a hat-trick last autumn, he returned with a sound second at Aintree last month to The Big Bite (see 1.50 race above).
I’ve always expected to see him step up to today’s trip, based on his breeding. He’s a stronger horse for this season, and 10.5 looks too big on BETDAQ.
THE McFABULOUS CONUNDRUM..
⭕ 3.00 Newbury (Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle) See Thursday preview
This is a race of conundrums, which I describe after a check on the form in ratings order.
167 Paisley Park Last year’s winner of this and Cheltenham champion but well beaten defending his title in March by Lisnagar Oscar (Summerville Boy fifth).
Had earlier beaten Summerville Boy and Lisnagar Oscar in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January.
160 Lisnagar Oscar Beaten 15 lengths in the West Yorkshire Hurdle on his first run since his 50-1 shock strike in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham.
153 McFabulous Reckoned a Gold Cup horse of the future, who ‘will stay forever,’ according to trainer Paul Nicholls. He steps up to 3m after winning the Persian War. Receives 3lb
151 Thyme Hill Landed a hat-trick last year in the Persian War, the Ballymore at Cheltenham and the Challow Hurdle here at Newbury.
Not much room and switched approaching the last, then not clear run and lacked the pace, fourth in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham in March, his first attempt at 3m. Receives 3lb.
The conundrums. Was Lisnagar Oscar’s title win in March a fluke; after all he had been beaten in the Cleeve Hurdle?
Did Paisley Park have an off-day that day in the championship (no excuses were put forward, though we know he lost a shoe) and can he bounce back, good as ever?
How come McFabulous earns a rating of 153 for winning the Persian War when Thyme Hill (only 151) followed up victory in the same race by taking both Ballymore and Challow Hurdle?
BETDAQ Betting Exchange has Paisley Park favourite (3.45) at 9 a.m. over McFabulous (3.56) with Thyme Hill 6.0, Summerville Boy 10.0 and Lisnagar Oscar 17.5. Take a position and check the market again nearer the ‘off.’
My way of dealing with the early races is to resolve the conundrums by following an early bird with a view to creating Fortune Cookies for the big meetings in the new year. In this case, McFabulous was nominated at the start of the season proper.
GOOD DEAL FOR DELL BOY AT 8.3
⭕ 3.35 Newbury David Pipe has been back in form and this is one of his races (two wins in the decade, including last year). He relies on old-timer Dell’Arca, who has already stretched credulity with back-to-back wins in the autumn at Aintree and here at Newbury on the last day.
Pipe praises claimer Fergus Gillard for doing the business and, including his allowance today, Dell’Arca still has a mark 21lb below this time in 2018 and the 11-year-old’s form at Newbury is 2201131.
Hill Sixteen ran away with a Ffos Las handicap chase the last day, first run for Nigel Twiston-Davies, but has no right to be favourite, unless you think he can hike his hurdles rating (119 his last winning mark) by 19lb to the new chase level.
The time of the Ffos Las win suggests it was no fluke but any value has probably gone by now.
Neville’s Cross made a similar procession of a handicap hurdle at Hereford last month; Coeur De Lion won the Ascot Stakes on the Flat in June; but Dell’Arca is big at 8.3.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.45 Newbury (win 10)
BET 3pts win ANEMOI
2.25 Newbury (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.25pts win DEFI SACRE
3.00 Newbury
FORTUNE COOKIE early bird
BET 10pts win McFABULOUS
3.35 Newbury (win 50 nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7pts win DELL’ARCA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
