THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League matches, all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
LEEDS V BURNLEY
12pm We have a fascinating Super Sunday ahead with some very intriguing markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today, apart from Liverpool v West Brom of course! We start with Leeds taking on Burnley and I must say I find this game fascinating. Leeds have been playing some excellent football this season, although because they play such an open game they have conceded a lot of goals. They are brilliant going forward, but they have a lot of work to do at the back given the level required in the Premier League. Burnley gained a deserved win over Wolves prior to Christmas, in a great example of what momentum can do for squad confidence.
Burnley went on a good run of results before the win against Wolves but if you look at the xG figures they were getting lucky. They weren’t playing good football but they were getting the result and came out of the bottom three. That gave them confidence and their performance against Wolves was good. It will be interesting how to see how they plan to stop this Leeds side, and although I can ultimately see Leeds doing well – from a value point of view I have to lay Leeds at 1.79. I feel now is a good time to support Burnley and Leeds also have given up a host of chances at the back. This is a pure value point of view as I feel Leeds shouldn’t be as short at 1.79. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leeds to beat Burnley on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleebur
MATCH STATS
- This will be the first ever Premier League meeting between Leeds and Burnley, with Leeds winning both games the last time they faced in the top-flight in the 1975-76 campaign (2-1 home, 1-0 away).
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last four league games with Leeds (W3 D1), with this the first such meeting between the sides since the Clarets won 1-0 at Turf Moor in the Championship in April 2016.
- Burnley lost their last Premier League match in Yorkshire (0-3 vs Sheffield United); they’ve not lost consecutive league matches in the county since October 2011 (vs Leeds and Barnsley).
- Only Liverpool’s Premier League games this season (55) have produced more goals than Leeds United’s (54 – F24 A30), with Leeds’ 30 goals conceded the most of any Premier League side so far this term.
- Burnley have kept four away clean sheets in their seven Premier League away games this season, with only Aston Villa (5) keeping more on the road. However, the Clarets have conceded an average of four goals-per-game in the other three games.
- Leeds are the only side to have both had (216) and faced (214) over 200 shots in the Premier League this season. Their matches are seeing an average of 31 shots so far this term, the highest rate for a team in a Premier League season since Liverpool in 2012-13 (also 31).
- Burnley have won two of their last three Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 14 (D5 L7). Indeed, having lost five of their first six league games this term, the Clarets have lost just one of their subsequent seven (W3 D3).
- Although Burnley boss Sean Dyche hasn’t faced Leeds in a league game since April 2016, only against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace (6 wins each) has he won more league matches as a manager than he has against Leeds (5).
- Dwight McNeil has appeared in each of Burnley’s last 71 Premier League matches – no outfield player is on a longer current run of consecutive appearances for their side in the competition (level with Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse).
- This will be Burnley striker Chris Wood’s second appearance against Leeds since leaving the club in 2017, scoring against the Whites in a September 2017 League Cup tie previously. Wood scored 24 goals in 44 appearances at Elland Road for the Whites, including 18 in the 2016/17 season, the most by a Leeds player in a season since Jermaine Beckford in 2008/09 (22).
WEST HAM V BRIGHTON
2.15pm This is a very interesting game from a betting point of view for me. We’ve made some nice money supporting West Ham this season and I quite fancy them to win today. They look cracking value at 2.4 against an average Brighton side. Brighton have slipped down the table in recent weeks, but to be fair to them they haven’t played badly. They were very good against Liverpool in their 1-1 draw, finishing with an xG of 2.22 to 0.32! They weren’t great against Fulham and Leicester recently away from home, and with West Ham playing solid football this season the 2.4 looks too big.
The Hammers were well beaten against Chelsea before Christmas, and although they lost to Man United recently too they actually played better than United that day – finishing with an xG of 2.67 to 1.56. Against sides of a similar level to Brighton, or even above them, they have been impressive this season. You only have to look at their xG figures to see that they are creating a lot of chances and they can outscore this Brighton side. I felt that they should be closer to 2.2 rather than 2.4.
The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Brighton at 2.4 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhubha
MATCH STATS
- West Ham are winless in all six of their Premier League meetings with Brighton, losing the first three and drawing the most recent three. The Seagulls are one of just two teams West Ham have faced in the competition without ever winning (also 2 games vs Swindon in 1993-94).
- Brighton have lost just one of their last five away league games against West Ham (W2 D2), going down 0-6 in a Championship match in April 2012. The Seagulls are unbeaten in all three of their Premier League visits to the London Stadium (W1 D2).
- Brighton have won just three of their 19 Premier League games in London (D6 L10), though one of those victories was at West Ham (3-0 in October 2017). 38% of Brighton’s Premier League goals in the capital have come in their three games at West Ham (8/21).
- In their 0-3 defeat at Chelsea last time out, West Ham failed to land a single shot on target for the first time in a Premier League game this season, while only in their defeat at Liverpool (4) have they had fewer shots than they did against the Blues (6).
- Brighton have only won one of their last 12 Premier League matches (D6 L5), winning 2-1 at Aston Villa in November. Indeed, each of the Seagulls’ last four Premier League victories have come away from home.
- Brighton have the highest difference between expected goals conceded (14.7) and goals conceded (22) in the Premier League this term, shipping around seven goals more than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances faced.
- West Ham boss David Moyes’ last win over Brighton was back in January 2002 with Preston North End in the FA Cup. A win in this match will be his second-longest gap between wins over an opponent (18y 347d), behind only a 20-year and 109-day gap between wins against Gillingham (1999 and 2020).
- West Ham winger Robert Snodgrass has been directly involved in eight goals in 10 appearances against Brighton and Hove Albion in all competitions (5 goals, 3 assists) – against no side has he scored more goals since joining Leeds in the 2008/09 season (also five vs Bristol City).
- Pascal Groß has been directly involved in five goals in five Premier League appearances against West Ham for Brighton (2 goals, 3 assists), scoring in both games when David Moyes has been Hammers boss (February 2018 and February 2020).
- Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored four goals in all competitions against West Ham, only netting more against Aston Villa (5) and Southampton (5) in his career. His three Premier League goals against the Hammers have all come in different stadiums (Old Trafford, Boleyn Ground and Emirates).
LIVERPOOL V WEST BROM
4.30pm Man City were a very short price at home to Newcastle on Boxing Day, and Liverpool are more or less the same price to beat West Brom here as they are trading as short as 1.15 at the time of writing. It’s hard to blame the market for having Liverpool so short as a home win looks an absolute banker, I would have them in every BETDAQ Multiple today. I feel this is a case of “how many” rather than will Liverpool win. West Brom have been very poor this season, and it was great to land a nice bet with Aston Villa beating them before Christmas.
Ironically West Brom have taken points of Chelsea and Man City this season, and they only have 7 points after 14 games! They beat a Sheffield United side low on confidence but they also conceded an xG of 3.25 in that game when Sheffield United should have won. Liverpool are full of confidence since beating Spurs in the last minute and as I said before Christmas, they can really kick off from there. Seven goals went in against Palace, and I believe we’ll see goals again here. Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more and win) is worth backing at 2.7.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivwba
MATCH STATS
- After winning 10 of their first 11 Premier League meetings with West Brom (L1) by an aggregate score of 28-2, Liverpool have won just four of their last 13 against the Baggies (D6 L3).
- All four of West Brom’s Premier League victories against Liverpool came in a five-game spell between April 2011 and February 2013, with Roy Hodgson and Steve Clarke in charge of the Baggies for two wins each.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 league meetings with West Brom, though six of these have ended level (W4). The Reds have also won all 14 of their Premier League home games against promoted sides under Jürgen Klopp, scoring 41 goals and conceding just seven.
- West Bromwich Albion have lost 29 of their last 34 top-flight matches against the reigning champions (W2 D3), losing 83% of their Premier League games against such sides (P24 W2 D2 L20).
- This will be West Brom’s 18th Premier League match against a side starting the day top of the table (W1 D4 L12), with their only win in their previous 17 coming against Chelsea in May 2015, who had already been crowned champions.
- Liverpool have lost one of their last 52 home Premier League matches against newly promoted sides (W42 D9), a 2-1 defeat to Blackpool in the 2010/11 season.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their 10 Premier League games since losing 2-7 against Aston Villa in October (W6 D4), with the Reds conceding just eight further goals in that run.
- West Brom manager Sam Allardyce is unbeaten in his last three Premier League away games against Liverpool (W1 D2), having picked up just two points in his first 12 top-flight visits to Anfield (D2 L10). Indeed, Allardyce was the last opposition manager to win a Premier League game at Anfield, doing so with Crystal Palace in April 2017.
- At Anfield, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 15 goals in 10 Premier League appearances against newly promoted teams (9 goals, 6 assists), scoring a hat-trick against Leeds earlier this season.
- Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has been involved in four goals in his last two Premier League games (3 goals, 1 assist), as many as in his first 12 appearances this season (2 goals, 2 assists). His two goals and assist against Crystal Palace last time out made him the first Brazilian player to reach 100 goal involvements in Premier League history.
WOLVES V TOTTENHAM
7.15pm What an interesting game to finish a fantastic day! Many football fans have said that Spurs “title challenge” is over after two losses and a draw – and perhaps it is – but they won’t be giving up yet considering how many odd results we have had in the Premier League this season. Wolves had to settle for a place in the bottom half of the table on Christmas Day and they haven’t been themselves this season. Spurs were unlucky to lose against Liverpool but they were outplayed by Leicester and dint deserve to beat Palace in a 1-1 draw.
Despite this little dip in form, overall Spurs have been excellent this season. Jose Mourinho has them playing well and creating a lot of chances. I can’t get away from them here at 2.26 to beat a very average Wolves side. Wolves went into Christmas with a poor performance when losing to Burnley and they have been poor in general. If you took out the 2-1 win against Chelsea you wouldn’t be impressed with their performances and at the odds I’m happy to back Spurs to get back to winning ways in the Premier League.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Wolves at 2.26 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwlvtot
MATCH STATS
- Following their 3-2 win at Spurs in the last Premier League meeting between the sides, Wolves are looking to secure back-to-back league wins against them for the first time since the 2009-10 campaign, when they completed a league double over them.
- Spurs have won each of their last three Premier League away games against Wolves, netting at least twice each time. Indeed, just one of Spurs’ four Premier League defeats to Wolves has come at Molineux (0-1 in February 2010).
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have won 17 of their 19 Premier League home games when scoring the first goal, drawing the other two.
- Tottenham have lost their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 22 in the competition (W12 D8). Spurs haven’t lost three consecutive league games since November 2012 under André Villas-Boas.
- After winning their first four Premier League away games this season, Spurs are winless in their last three on the road (D2 L1). However, they’re yet to lose consecutive away league games under José Mourinho.
- Having netted 15 goals in their first five Premier League games this season (3 per game), Tottenham have netted just 10 in their last nine in the competition (1.1 per game). 20 of their 25 league goals this season (80%) have been scored by either Son Heung-min (11) or Harry Kane (9).
- Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven Premier League games (W2 D1 L4), having shut their opponents out in four of their first seven this season (W4 D1 L2).
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves average just 0.7 goals per Premier League game without Raúl Jiménez in the starting lineup, compared to 1.3 goals-per-game when the Mexican does start.
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored nine Premier League goals this season; his next strike will see him become just the fourth Englishman to reach double figures in seven consecutive Premier League campaigns, after Michael Owen (97-98 to 03-04), Frank Lampard (10 between 03-04 and 12-13) and Wayne Rooney (11 between 04-05 and 14-15).
- Gareth Bale has never scored in six previous league appearances against Wolves (5 with Spurs, 1 with Southampton). The Welshman has only faced Everton (8) more without finding the net in English league football.
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