SERIE A and LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between AC MILAN v JUVENTUS and ATHLETIC BILBAO v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V JUVENTUS
7.45pm What a superb Wednesday night in Europe! Two cracking fixtures and we start in Serie A with AC Milan hosting last year’s Champions Juventus. AC Milan are having a wonderful season and although Inter Milan might go ahead of them as they play earlier in the day; they started the matchday one point clear at the top. Juventus are having an average season as they sit ten points behind AC Milan, although they do have a game in hand. The task for Juve tonight is simple – they need to win otherwise they are probably out of the title race. Inter are still big favourites for the title, but a win for AC Milan would be massive here. What a fixture – so much at stake even this early in the season.
Fans of xG figures will know that this dip from Juventus was coming. They were well clear at the top of the table before finishing slowly after they confirmed the title but xG only put them in fourth, and they consistently won games that they didn’t deserve looking at the xG figures. AC Milan are having an excellent season and their chances created have been excellent. My worry is they have been giving up too many chances lately and while I feel Juve are a little short at 2.4, the xG conceded figures put me off. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page for me at 1.83 here. AC Milan are creating a lot, and conceding a lot while Juventus have had plenty of goals in their recent games. I feel everything points to goals here and overs should be shorter.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAcmJuv
ATHLETIC BILBAO V BARCELONA
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the day as Athletic Bilbao host Barcelona. We have another fascinating market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Barcelona as big as 1.88 to claim three points. Barcelona managed to get past Huesca with a 1-0 win at the weekend but they now find themselves ten points behind Atletico Madrid having played one game more. Their title chances look gone already, but looking at the xG figures they do seem to be playing better recently. Athletic Bilbao are only a mid-table La Liga side at best, and they arrive into this fixture in reasonable form but nothing more.
Barcelona have let their supporters down a lot this season, including when I’ve backed them at appealing odds too. I can’t ignore the 1.88 here though as it looks massive to beat an average Bilbao side. Despite some indifferent results, Barcelona’s last six xG figures are 3.34, 2.26, 3.38, 2.56, 2.86 and 2.76. They are starting to create the same volume of chances that they used to – perhaps the issue might be they aren’t putting away their chances. Even considering that, if they keep playing like this they should start beating the average La Liga side like Bilbao and I’m happy to take the 1.88.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona to beat Athletic Bilbao at 1.88 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAthBrc
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