DAQMAN DAILY STRIKE LANDS 9.6 HIT AT BETDAQ VALUE: A 7-1 strike yesterday means that Daqman has had a winner every day this week. Dostal Phil was 9.6 on BETDAQ when selected by him on the morning of the race.
✔️ WON 7-2 TIMELESS BEAUTY (Monday)
✔️ WON 2-1 DON HERBAGER (Tuesday)
✔️ WON 7-1 DOSTAL PHIL (Wednesday, from 9.6 BETDAQ)
FOPP! CYCLOP COULD BE THE SOMERSET NATIONAL FLOP: When Daqman picked the one-two in the Lincolnshire National on the last day of 2020 (Who’s In The Box WON 7-1), his second choice was Cyclop. Today Cyclop bids for the Somerset National but Daqman opposes him as favourite. He is worried that the course is too fast for him, even on heavy ground, his form figures there F0PP.
HE’S ONE FOR US AT BETDAQ 19.5
⭕ 3.50 Wincanton (Somerset National): passed morning inspection; going heavy
1 ONE FOR US (Nick Williams) Devon Stayers and Southern National winner of 2019 had been second to Potters Corner at Wincanton. Poor form last year until revival in Scottish Borders National in December (led until two out over 4m plus).
2 LIMITED RESERVE (Christian Williams) Won a Grade 3 over hurdles at Sandown in February. Poor start to chasing in two runs after a break, but has always needed plenty of racing before he strikes form, and first-time cheekpieces means today could be the day, 7lb lower than hurdles rating of 133 and 4-4 on heavy ground.
3 CYCLOP (Matt Sheppard) Runs here off same mark as for veterans’ chase win at Plumpton eight days back, his fourth fences strike, including Lincolnshire National of 2017; twice placed in that race since, and also runner-up in the Southern National at Fontwell. But Cyclop’s chase record at Wincanton is F0PP.
4 NEARLY PERFECT (Neil King) Progressive in 3-4 over fences, including a double on today’s track, for an overall hike of 18lb. Bryony Frost has won on him at Winkers but I was expecting a claimer to eat up some of the 15lb he has to give to Cyclop.
MIDNIGHT TUNE (Anthony Honeyball) In-and-out performer; you cannot be sure which Tune will be played, as revealed by form figures of 11P1PP, with the mare’s chasing success all in very small fields.
Though six of her seven NH wins were for Aidan Coleman, she is claimed off today. Effective on heavy ground.
ANOTHER VENTURE (Kim Bailey) The stable has had a losing run (0-14) since 40 winners in the season until Christmas at a strike rate of nearly 20%. One of his last winners was this one but, going with the pace at Ludlow, his success cost him a 5lb rise to an all-time high mark. Gives weight all round.
DAWSON CITY (Polly Grundy) He’s 12 now but has dropped a stone in the handicap and is a Spring horse. He won here in March 2017, and did the Devon National double at Exeter (February 2018 and 2019).
GLENO (Gary Moore) Modest over fences 2019-20 but improved form in the autumn, winning back-to-back novice chases. Could improve for longer trip but so far has handled soft but not heavy over obstacles.
THE KING’S WRIT (Kayley Woollacot) Harry Cobden won on this one over shorter more than two years back and best form since, before trying the Kim Muir, was second here at Wincanton under an amateur rider.
FAUBURG ROSETGRI (Nigel Twiston-Davies) Won six times in France including very-soft-ground chases at Auteuil, but pulled up three of last four starts, including poor form for new yard
DIEU VIVANT The 18-lengths hunter-chase winner at Ludlow a year or so ago is now back with Oliver Greenall, close second at Bangor in December and had wind op since. As an eight-year-old, may yet improve.
Verdict: I’ve gone for the lightweights because of the heavy ground, taking 19.5 One For Us and 15.0 Limited Reserve on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
SUPREME BUT FINDUS ESCAPE ROUTE
⭕ 1.50 Wincanton Local star jockey Bryony Frost riding for dad. It worked well in a marathon at Exeter in early December, and Findusatgorcombe is a CD winner at Wincanton.
Favori De Sivola won on good going at Taunton and has always been out of the back door on soft and heavy, but wind ops will help him cope with the ground and it’s early days yet for a six-year-old.
Anywayyoulookatit is also a good-ground-only winner, and Broadclyst is 0-10 over fences.
The others also have questions to answer and it seems to be a matter of whether the top-weight can escape the shackles of his big burden, giving 17lb to ‘Findus.’
Supreme Escape is a horse with a future: he is lightly raced and has already shown flexibility as to ground and distance, and Bryony could be sitting duck for his late challenge.
BETDAQ to the rescue. I could get 2.94 Supreme Escape and 8.6 Findusatgorcombe as my stakes saver.
MACK TO KNIFE THROUGH THIS FIELD
⭕ 3.20 Wincanton Whatever happens with Supreme Escape, Evan Williams and Adam Wedge should go home with a winner, Mack The Man, who was paying just about even money on BETDAQ this morning.
I took 1.94 about the dual hurdles winner of a year or so ago, including on the heavy at Sandown, well fancied for a Grade 3 in February but brought down when close up at the last.
Mack The Man did not take to fences in the autumn but his hurdles defeat of Protektorat (now off 143 hurdles) and Song For Someone (a Group 2 winner off 156 the last day) suggests that the 127-rated Mack will knife through the opposition today.
Rosie And Millie should set the target and Dino Velvet prefers top of the ground.
River Bray is the biggest danger on form as a CD winner in December but he gives the selection weight with his stable currently out of form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Wincanton (win 20, win 10.5)
BET 10.5pts win SUPREME ESCAPE
BET 1.4pts win FINDUSATGORCOMBE
3.20 Wincanton (win 20 supernap)
BET 20pts win MACK THE MAN
3.50 Wincanton (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 3.5pts win LIMITED RESERVE
BET 2.75pts win ONE FOR US
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