THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League action on Tuesday with the games between CRYSTAL PALACE v WEST HAM, NEWCASTLE v LEEDS, SOUTHAMPTON v ARSENAL and WEST BROM v MANCHESTER CITY – all previewed with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

CRYSTAL PALACE V WEST HAM

6pm After a busy weekend in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup, we have more Premier League fixtures midweek with a full fixture list! The games just keep coming up thick and fast lately and as we have witnessed with Liverpool and Chelsea recently, things can go badly very quickly with this schedule. We start the week with Crystal Palace hosting West Ham and I have a pretty confident bet here. I’m a big fan of West Ham at 2.48. They come here off the back of five wins’ albeit two came against weak opposition in the Cup and one against West Brom in the league – however they have been playing impressive football all season and Palace are a poor side.

Palace had the weekend off as they were knocked out of the FA Cup earlier in the month, and while they did manage to hold Arsenal and Leicester to draws recently, they were very lucky to hold Leicester to a draw and they have struggled to create chances all season. The Hammers haven’t had that problem, and they have been recording good xG figures for a large part of the season. Of course they have come up short against the better sides, but they shouldn’t have that problem this evening. I’d have West Ham around 2.2, and the 2.48 has to be taken.

The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Crystal Palace at 2.48 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrywhm

MATCH STATS

  • Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against West Ham (W2 D2), their longest unbeaten streak against the Hammers in the competition.
  • West Ham, who were beaten 2-1 at Selhurst Park last season, have never lost back-to-back away league matches against Crystal Palace.
  • Crystal Palace have won just four of their last 22 home Premier League London derbies (D6 L12), meanwhile West Ham have that identical record in their last 22 away London derbies in the competition – W4 D6 L12.
  • Only Fulham (1) have picked up fewer points in Premier League London derbies so far this season than West Ham (5 – W1 D2 L2). The Hammers have lost five of their last six away London derby matches, drawing the other.
  • Since beating West Brom 5-1 at the start of December, Crystal Palace have scored just five further goals in their eight Premier League matches (W1 D4 L3), failing to score on four occasions in this run.
  • West Ham are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games for the first time since December 2018, while manager David Moyes hasn’t done so in the competition since December 2013 with Manchester United.
  • Crystal Palace have won none of their last 19 Premier League games against teams starting the day in the top half (D6 L13). Since beating Man Utd in September, Palace’s four wins have been against the three newly promoted teams (Fulham, Leeds, West Brom) and bottom placed Sheffield United.
  • Crystal Palace’s Jordan Ayew has scored four Premier League goals against West Ham, all on different grounds – Villa Park with Aston Villa (December 2015), Liberty Stadium with Swansea (March 2018), London Stadium with Palace (October 2019 and Selhurst Park with Palace (December 2019).
  • West Ham manager David Moyes has won all four of his away league matches against Crystal Palace, winning with four different teams – Preston (2001), Everton (2004), Manchester United (2014) and Sunderland (2017).
  • Michail Antonio has scored the winning goal in West Ham’s last two Premier League victories – the last player to score the winner in three consecutive top-flight games for the Hammers was Bobby Zamora, doing so in March/April 2007 against Blackburn, Middlesbrough and Arsenal.

NEWCASTLE V LEEDS

6pm It doesn’t feel like so long ago that Leeds thrashed Newcastle 5-2, indeed it was a little over a month ago. I remember we landed a nice touch on Leeds that day as they play a game that’s suited to playing against Newcastle. I still feel the same today, and the 1.97 looks excellent value. Leeds are having a mini-crisis this time around however, and perhaps stakes should be reduced. They only created an xG of 0.35 against Brighton ten days ago, which was one of their worst performances all season. I wouldn’t pay much attention to the FA Cup loss against Crawley given all the changes, and they were so bad against Spurs when losing 3-0. xG had them losing, but not 3-0.

The reason I like this match-up this Leeds like to play an open game and with that in mind they always give away chances. Newcastle are unlikely to create much however, and that allows Leeds to play the perfect game. We saw a similar situation when Leeds played West Brom recently when they ran out 5-0 winners. Newcastle have had a tough fixture list recently but they have been poor too. They were very poor against Arsenal twice and they were brushed aside by Villa at the weekend. Leeds will create a lot more than Newcastle and they can out-score them again. If they came into the game in a little bit better form, they would be close to a max bet.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Leeds to beat Newcastle at 1.97 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewlee

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle United last hosted Leeds United for a league match in April 2017 in the Championship, drawing 1-1 with Chris Wood netting a 90th minute equaliser for the Whites.
  • Leeds won 5-2 against Newcastle in December in the reverse Premier League meeting, last completing a league double over the Magpies in the 1975-76 campaign under Jimmy Armfield, which was also the last time they won back-to-back league games against the Magpies.
  • Newcastle United are looking to avoid losing both home and away Premier League games against a newly promoted club in a season for only the third time, previously doing so against Charlton Athletic in 2000-01 and Watford in 2015-16.
  • Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 Premier League home games (W3 D4 L6), with that coming in a goalless draw against Liverpool. The Magpies had kept four consecutive clean sheets at St James’ Park prior to this run.
  • Leeds have lost their last three games in all competitions by an aggregate score of 0-7. They last lost four in a row back in November 2017, while they last lost as many consecutively without scoring in April 2010.
  • Leeds United are the only Premier League team yet to score in all competitions in 2021 – the only previous Premier League side to fail to score in their first four matches in a year was Cardiff City in 2019, while the last top-flight team to fail to score and lose their first four matches in a year was Ipswich Town in 1970.
  • Newcastle have managed just 9.1 shots per game in home Premier League games this season (82 in 9 games) – since 2003/04, their previous lowest total at St James’ Park was 11.8, in 2017-18.
  • Leeds managed just seven shots in their last match against Brighton, only having fewer in three matches under Marcelo Bielsa in all competitions, most recently against Liverpool on the opening day of this season (6). It was also the first time Patrick Bamford had completed 90 minutes in a match for Bielsa and failed to have a shot at goal.
  • Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has never lost a home league match against Leeds in his managerial career (P7 W5 D2), facing no side more without losing at home in the league (also seven games vs Bristol City and Stoke City).
  • In his first eight Premier League games this season, Leeds’ Patrick Bamford scored seven goals from 29 shots (24% conversion rate), averaging a goal every 96 minutes. Since then, he’s scored three goals from 36 shots (8% conversion), averaging a goal every 292 minutes.

SOUTHAMPTON V ARSENAL

8.15pm It’s funny how the fixture list can throw up these situations, but Southampton meet Arsenal again after beating them here in the FA Cup the weekend. We landed a nice lay of Arsenal on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and I don’t see a reason why we can’t do the same again tonight. Indeed, they are a little shorter in the market today. The 2.34 looks an excellent value lay – Southampton are a rock solid side and Arsenal have been nothing but average this season. Arsenal went into the game at the weekend off the back of two impressive wins, but we saw how poor Newcastle were against Villa and it seems like every time Arsenal face a difficult task they come up short. They can look good against the weaker sides, but that’s it.

Southampton have been excellent this season. Before beating Arsenal here at the weekend, they managed to beat Liverpool, albeit a little lucky, but they are two points ahead of Arsenal with a game in hand too. I just can’t have Arsenal as short as 2.34 to beat a side like Southampton away from home. How can you trust Arsenal given the way they have played this season – they just don’t turn up often enough to take these prices. I know the away feeling isn’t the same these days without crowds, but they always tend to struggle in these types of fixture. The loss at the weekend wasn’t a surprise, and Southampton can get another result.

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Southampton at 2.34 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsthars

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton have won one of their last 10 Premier League matches against Arsenal (D4 L5), a 3-2 home win in December 2018.
  • Arsenal are looking to record back-to-back away Premier League wins against Southampton for the first time since winning in March and August 1997 under Arsène Wenger.
  • All seven of Southampton’s wins against Arsenal in the Premier League have been at home, with only Fulham vs Everton (9) winning more games against an opponent with all wins coming at home in the Premier League.
  • Arsenal are looking to win three consecutive away Premier League games for the first time since October 2018, while they last did so without conceding back in May 2013.
  • Southampton have kept six home Premier League clean sheets this season, as many as they did in 2018/19 and 2019/20 combined; the Saints last kept more at St. Mary’s in 2016/17 (8).
  • Following a run of seven league games without a win in November/December, Arsenal have won four of their last five (D1), shipping just one goal in that run.
  • After a run of scoring in 12 consecutive Premier League games, Southampton have failed to score in four of their last five in the competition. Saints are looking to avoid consecutive Premier League defeats for the first time since their opening two games of this campaign.
  • Arsenal have kept four consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League, last keeping five in a row in the competition back in January 2006.
  • Southampton’s Theo Walcott scored in their 1-1 draw vs Arsenal earlier this season – the only three players to score home and away against the Gunners in a Premier League season having previously played for them in the competition are Kevin Campbell (2000/01), Nicolas Anelka (2002/03 & 2006/07) and Robin van Persie (2012/13).
  • Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored twice in Arsenal’s last league game against Newcastle, as many as he’d netted in his previous 15 Premier League games. The Gabonese striker has scored more Premier League braces without ever netting a hat-trick in the competition’s history (13).

WEST BROM V MANCHESTER CITY

8.15pm We finish the day with Man City traveling to take on West Brom with the market already close to giving City the win! They are the shortest price of any side midweek as they are trading 1.21 at the time of writing. Even shorter than Manchester United at home to Sheffield United! Although you’d probably trust City more to get the job done! They made hard work of beating Cheltenham Town at the weekend in the FA Cup, but they got the win in the end and they come into this clash in excellent form. They are really hitting form at the right time, and look a good thing to lift the title again.

If they win here they will go top and put the pressure back on United to win tomorrow night. You can see by looking at the xG figures that City are bang on it at the moment. They created an xG of 3.72 against Aston Villa, beat Crystal Palace 4-0, had an xG of 2.41 against Brighton and they have been scoring plenty of the domestic Cups – they bossed United at Old Trafford. I like them to cover the handicap, -2 goals on the Asian Handicap (stakes void if they win by exactly two) is worth backing at 1.85.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -2 goals Asian Handicap to beat West Brom at 1.85 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbaman

MATCH STATS

  • West Bromwich Albion are winless in their last 18 Premier League matches against Manchester City (D2 L16) since a 2-1 win in December 2008 under Tony Mowbray.
  • Manchester City have won their last six away Premier League games against West Brom, their longest ever away top-flight winning streak against an opponent.
  • West Brom have only had a longer top-flight winless run versus Liverpool (19 games between 1981 and 2010) than their current 18-game winless streak against Man City.
  • In their 18 winless games since last beating Man City in December 2008, West Brom have led for a combined total of just 26 minutes and 3 seconds, taking the lead in October 2012 (ahead 12m 56s) and April 2016 (13m 7s) before going on to lose both games.
  • Since losing 2-5 against Leicester in their second game of the season, Manchester City have conceded just seven goals in 16 Premier League games, keeping 10 clean sheets in the process.
  • West Brom have conceded 24 goals in nine Premier League home games this season, more than any other side in the division. However, Man City have scored fewer away goals than any other side currently in the top half (10).
  • Victory for Manchester City will see them finish top of the Premier League table for the first time this season. They will be the ninth different side to end a day top this term, the most within a single top-flight campaign since 1986-87 (also 9).
  • West Bromwich Albion have lost their last four home Premier League games, last losing five in a row back in December 2004. All four of those defeats have been by a margin of three or more goals, making them the first side in top-flight history to lose four in a row at home by a margin of 3+ goals.
  • West Brom’s Sam Allardyce has only lost four consecutive home Premier League games once previously, doing so in December 2004 with Bolton Wanderers. Allardyce could become the first manager since Chris Ramsey at QPR in March 2015 to lose his first four home Premier League games in charge of a club.
  • In his league managerial career with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Man City, the only time Pep Guardiola has failed to beat a newly promoted team either home or away in a season was against Middlesbrough in 2016-17, drawing both games.

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