We are set for a brilliant weekend of sport with busy markets galore on BETDAQ. Centre stage are Six Nations matches, the Carling Cup Final – Cardiff (6.2 on BETDAQ to win the trophy) v Liverpool (1.17) – and the North London derby.
Some excellent racing too in England and Ireland. Of particular interest will be Triumph Hurdle favourite Minsk’s hurdles debut at Fairyhouse and the Adonis at Kempton could also throw up a worthy contender.
The Racing Plus Chase is a very poor renewal but there will be plenty of Cheltenham clues elsewhere. The Pendil Novices’ Chase is a fascinating clash between Cristal Bonus and Minella Class, while Grumeti will be well fancied and a short price in the Dovecote but I think the ground is against him.
Last week there was some sensational racing that really whet the appetite for the Cheltenham Festival, which is only 17 days away. The star of the show was Sprinter Sacre, who flew round Newbury like an aeroplane. He’ll be many punters’ Festival banker now and is down to 2.38 to win the Racing Post Arkle. People are bound to question whether he gets up the hill and plug the chances of Peddlers Cross (4.8) et al in what looks a vintage renewal of the Arkle. However, Sprinter Sacre looks like a freak to me and banker material.
Riverside Theatre was also an impressive winner over at Ascot but I don’t fancy his chances though as he’s a horse that is best caught fresh and lacks the all-important Cheltenham course form. Granted good ground Noble Prince remains my nap of the meeting in this contest.
The eye-catcher of the weekend was Bob’s Worth in the Reynoldstown Chase. However, in a week where Paul Nicholls has excelled again keeping punters informed of his horses’ well-being, why did Nicky Henderson wait until after the race to tell us that Bob’s Worth had only had his first gallop since Boxing Day the previous weekend? I did my money on the day but in the circumstances, Bob’s Worth race a cracking race to be staying on in second behind Invictus and looks tailor-made for the demands of the RSA. He’ll be much better going left-handed, has excellent course form but will need to brush up his jumping and has the small matter of Grands Crus in his path.
I will be presenting the game at the Emirates – Arsenal (2.54) v Tottenham (2.88) – on Sunday alongside Glenn Hoddle and Ian Wright on what is a huge day for the latter’s old club as their season threatens to implode just as it did this time last year.
Arsenal are out of both domestic cup competitions, the Premier League title race (17 points behind leaders Manchester City) and face an unprecedented task of overturning a 4-0 first leg deficit in the Champions League tie against AC Milan on March 6th.
This is the earliest in a season (before beginning of March) that Arsenal have effectively been out of contention in all competitions under Arsene Wenger. They last had nothing left to play for this early in a season in 1995-96 under Bruce Rioch.
The 150th North London Derby in the League could be the best thing for Arsene Wenger but it could also be the worst. Victory for Arsenal would restore some pride and keep them on track for a top four finish, defeat would increase the calls for Arsene Wenger to go.
Why has it all gone wrong for Arsenal? Two reasons stand out for me. First, this Arsenal team can dispense with lesser opposition but doesn’t seem able to stand up against the big boys. The eight they conceded at Old Trafford and four last week at the San Siro stand out. Arsenal have lost all four Premier League meetings against the three teams above them so far this season. Second, is their defending. Arsenal have used 16 different back four combinations in 25 PL games this season – they have used five different combinations in central defence. None has managed to gel and defend like the Arsenal of old. Any punters backing Arsenal at 2.54 on Betdaq will be in for a rough ride.
I can therefore see plenty of punters backing over 2.5 goals at 1.76 despite Tottenham’s excellent recent defending – they have kept ten PL clean sheets and not conceded for three hours and 10 minutes since the 3-1 win against Wigan in January.
However, when the top teams have met this season the goals have flowed. Incredibly, there have been 38 goals in the eight PL meetings between the top four teams so far this season – an average of 4.75-per-game. In contrast, there were only 23 goals in total in the 12 PL meetings between the top four teams last season. Let’s hope we get lots more goals on Super Sunday.
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