FOUR NAPS OUT OF FIVE AND DAQMAN GETS 2-7 FAVOURITE BEATEN: One hot favourite was ‘a lay not a lay-down’, said Daqman yesterday and, sure enough, Sammarr (3rd 2-7 SP) was a huge flop at long odds-on. Another hot favourite, Allmankind (WON 4-7), was not only his nap and a Fortune Cookie but he recommended a bet at 11.0 for the Arkle in BETDAQ Sportsbook. Allmankind won 17 lengths and 22 lengths to become his fourth winning nap out of five.
✔️ WON 4-7 ALLMANKIND Monday nap
✔️ WON 6-4 CARIBENO Sunday nap
✔️ WON 5-2 TRUE HERO Friday nap
✔️ WON 7-2 BEFORE MIDNIGHT Thursday nap, BETDAQ 7.8 taken
LINCOLN AND NATIONAL WEIGHTS: SOME ‘ASTONISHING RESULTS’: The Grand National weights are out today amid controversy. When the dust settles, Daqman will give his verdict tomorrow. Meanwhile he compares the ratings for the top National runners with winning marks in the decade. He does the same for the Lincoln Handicap with astonishing results.
BREAKING NEWS:
GRAND NATIONAL WEIGHTS ANNOUNCED
AINTREE: WHEN QUALITY IS A PROBLEM
➡️ LAST 10 WINNERS RATED 153, 156, 157, 137, 143, 160, 148, 148, 150, 159
⭕ 5.15 Aintree, Saturday, April 10 (Grand National) It looked a top-heavy Grand National facing the handicapper, who announces his weights today.
The quality horses had high ratings, compared with previous winning marks listed above for winners over the last decade up to 2019 (abandoned last year because of the restrictions).
If favours were done for one, there would be complaints from all within this lofty quality range of existing ratings:
Bristol De Mai 169, Presenting Percy 168, Tiger Roll 168, Easysland 167, Santini 167, The Storyteller 165 and Chris’s Dream 164.
How has the handicapper got round this? Which horses are rated within the parameters of the last 10 winning weights? Which of those are value in the markets? Daqman gives his verdict tomorrow.
ED WALKER TON-UP LINCOLN TRAINER
➡️ LAST 10 WINNERS RATED 98, 104, 95, 90, 102, 100, 100, 100, 99, 100
⭕ 3.10 Doncaster, March 27 (Lincoln Handicap) Results of the first big Flat handicap by rating are extraordinary for their consistency!
Four of the last five winners were all rated 100 and, taking the average of the eight highest in the 10 years, you also have 100.
So which trainers have been clever enough to place their horses so they are spot on the right mark to win the £56,000 prize in March, according to the weights announced this week?
The answer seems to be Newmarket trainer Ed Walker who has two potential runners off a rating of 100.
100 ALMODOVAR (Ed Walker): Second 9f Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp (2018). Aged nine now but dropped 15lb after three AW runs for Ed Walker this winter.
100 BRUNCH (Michael Dods): Back-to-back wins at York last summer (one of them over a mile) hiked his rating 12lb and took him up from class 4 to class 2
100 CAP FRANCAIS (Ed Walker): Mile winner at Haydock (class 3) in June. Should be fit for Doncaster after two runs (one Group 2) at Meydan this year.
100 FLEETING PRINCE (Charles Hills): Not won since breaking his maiden (6f) but beaten only half a length, fourth, at Doncaster (7f). Third in Dubai Listed.
100 HAQEEQY (John Gosden) Winner of three out of four last year, the last one here at Doncaster at this class-2 level, though all success so far has been over 7f.
HOW WAS THE HANDICAPPER SO KIND
Now they have to listen! Even the handicapper was sceptical and Allmankind lined up in the Kingmaker at Warwick yesterday, with only the odd pound between him and his two main rivals in the ratings.
In fact, there was 17 and 39 difference, respectively, at the winning post, as Allmankind put in an exhibition round against Sky Pirate and Cheddleton.
If trainer Dan Skelton was right – he was quite happy to take on Shishkin and Energumene in the Arkle – then ‘buying money’ with the nap and Fortune Cookie on Allmankind was not the gift of 4-7 but more the very limited risk of 1-7, a winner barring accident.
Accident there might have been at the second last. Such disrespect for the obstacle – he went through it – would have been disaster, or potentially so, for a lesser animal.
Allmankind didn’t flinch but strode on majestically to the line and in to 7-1 with bookmakers for the Arkle, making our 11.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook a tasty bonus.
NOD TO DON
⭕ 2.35 Carlisle This is part of the Staying Chase Series and put the emphasis very much on ‘staying’ today with the card needing to pass a morning inspection and heavy ground facing the 14 runners for this 3m 2f marathon.
Sigurd is up a full stone but that’s what happens when you win your last race by 39 lengths in a canter! It might not have been the strongest race last time out at Catterick but it did come on heavy ground and there’s every chance he can remain competitive off this loftier mark on ground he loves.
However the safer play might be the Venetia Williams trained Don Herbager who was also a heavy ground winner last time out and showed no signs of stopping over three miles at Exeter. Conditions were so attritional that day that seven of his nine rivals pulled up and he will get similar deep ground here.
Ross Chapman has just the one ride today but is entitled to have high hopes of a place here with Real Armani who has some reasonable placed efforts but remains 0-14 and his heavy ground form is not completely proven.
One that could run well at a big price on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE is the Rose Dobbin trained Smuggler’s Stash who is one of two course and distance winners and the trainer has a superb 3 from 4 strike rate here at the Cumbrian track.
PYRAMID TO PEAK
⭕ 2.45 Catterick It’s also heavy ground at Catterick and this handicap hurdle looks best left to Pyramid Place for the Milton Bradley / Paddy Brennan axis who have enjoyed a 3-11 strike-rate when teaming up this season.
One of those wins came with Pyramid Place last time out at Taunton where he stayed on strongly to win on soft ground and he should be progressive enough at this stage of his career to cope with the rise in weights.
He is preferred to Maskada who will find this tougher after her win in a mares race at Newbury last time out.
ANSWER IS EQUATE
⭕ 6.10 Newcastle Just the six runners for this Ladbrokes-sponsored sprint but it still looks mighty competitive.
Equate is lightly raced and can continue the good recent spell of form for trainer Bryan Smart who is three winners from his last seven runners.
Equate starts life in handicap company tonight. From first three starts he was a turf winner at Beverley and showed plenty of promiser on his all-weather debut here in January.
He is preferred to It Just Takes Time who drops back in trip but was staying on at the end of six furlongs last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.5pts win DON HERBAGER (2.35 Carlisle)
BET 6.0pts win (nap) PYRAMID PLACE (2.45 Catterick)
BET 3.7pts win EQUATE (6.10 Newcastle)
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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