THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s Premier League matches with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 6pm with BURNLEY v FULHAM followed by EVERTON v MAN CITY at 8.15pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BURNLEY V FULHAM
6pm All eyes might be on the Champions League this evening but we have two very interesting Premier League fixtures as we get some games in hand out of the way. We start with a massive game at the bottom of the table as Burnley host Fulham. Both these sides had big wins at the weekend with Burnley beating Crystal Palace 3-0 and Fulham giving Everton a surprise 2-0 beating. That win for Burnley was very important as without that things could have got very close between themselves and Fulham. To their credit Fulham are giving it a very good go trying to stay up after a poor start to the season. They are still seven points behind Newcastle in 17th and eight points behind Burnley in 16th but a win here would likely see a little bit of pressure put on.
As I have said before, seven points is a huge gap because of what needs to happen for them to get back in touch, and then actually go past. We saw Watford have a very good spell last season to get back in touch but they couldn’t continue their run enough to go past. I feel the same will happen to Fulham. Both sides are actually playing very good football looking at their xG figures. Burnley might have only drew 1-1 with Brighton recently but they created an xG of 2.11 in one of these best performances of the season. Fulham had an xG of 2.37 against Everton the weekend too which was very impressive. It all comes down to the odds on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and I can only see a very close game here between two sides playing well. The draw is worth a small bet at 3.25 for me.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburflm
MATCH STATS
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last 30 home meetings with Fulham in all competitions (W25 D5), their longest ever unbeaten run against an opponent at Turf Moor in their history. Their last such defeat was back in April 1951 (0-2).
- Only against Liverpool (30 between 1934-2011) have Fulham had as long a winless away run against an opponent in all competitions than their current run of 30 without a win at Burnley.
- Fulham have lost just one of their four Premier League meetings with Burnley (W2 D1), though it was in this exact fixture the last time the sides met in January 2019 (1-2).
- Burnley have won just one of their last seven Premier League matches against promoted sides (D3 L3) having won five in a row before that. The Clarets have failed to score in either such game this season, drawing 0-0 with West Brom and losing 0-1 to Leeds.
- Fulham are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time since April 2019 when they won three in a row, while they last won back-to-back away games in the top-flight in August 2013.
- There have been just 22 goals scored in Burnley’s home Premier League games this season (9 for, 13 against), the fewest total netted at a Premier League stadium in 2020/21.
- Fulham have won 61% of their points this season in away games (11 of 18) – the only sides with a larger share of points won on the road in the Premier League this season are Everton (62%) and Brighton (62%).
- Fulham have only won one of their 18 Premier League away games on Wednesday (D6 L11), failing to win each of their last 16 such matches since beating Derby in January 2002 (1-0).
- Burnley striker Jay Rodriguez has been involved in six goals in his last three starts against Fulham in all competitions (4 goals, 2 assists), scoring twice and assisting another in the Clarets’ 3-0 win over the London side in the FA Cup this season.
- Following his brace last time against Everton, Josh Maja is looking to become the first Fulham player to score in each of his first two starts in the Premier League since Pavel Pogrebnyak February 2012.
EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY
8.15pm We finish the evening with Everton hosting Man City, and I’m all over Man City here at 1.38. I’d have them closer to 1.3 and I know some punters don’t like backing short odds but I have no issues at prices of 1.35+ when they are too big. Everton suffered a big loss against Fulham at the weekend. They have been three points behind Liverpool in fourth position for a while now but they just can’t go past them. This is one of their games in hand but they’re unlikely to get anything from it so that just leaves one game in hand that they need to win to get level. Really and truly they should be past Liverpool already. Their top four chances were always unlikely but I feel they have blown their chances in recent weeks. Chelsea are right back in the mix now too.
Man City haven’t had any problems however as have ran away with the title in recent weeks. Man United dropped further points at the weekend and now they are seven points clear and they will go ten points clear with a win here. Anyone who is a fan of xG saw this run coming looking at their figures and we have been able to land some nice bets on them. They put in another steller performance at the weekend with an easy 3-0 win over Spurs; giving up an xG of just 0.43. They managed an xG of over 3 against Liverpool in an easy away win and they can simply out score this Everton side. City are in fantastic form and this is the time to back them – I can see Guardiola trying to put the Premier League to bed quickly so he can focus on the Champions League.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Manchester City to beat Everton at 1.38 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevemnc
MATCH STATS
- Everton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Manchester City (D4 L9), winning 4-0 in January 2017 at Goodison Park.
- Manchester City have won each of their last five Premier League games against Everton, netting at least twice each time. It’s their longest ever winning run against the Toffees in the top-flight.
- Everton have lost their last two home Premier League games, last losing three in a row back in March 2016 under Roberto Martinez, while manager Carlo Ancelotti hasn’t lost three home league games in a row since November 2006 when he was AC Milan boss.
- Manchester City have won their nine Premier League matches in 2021 – they could become the first team in top-flight history to win their opening 10 matches in a calendar year, breaking the record of nine wins set previously by Bolton Wanderers in 1906 and Manchester United in 2009.
- Everton have won just three of their 41 Premier League matches against teams starting the day top of the league (D9 L29) and are winless in their last 12 such matches (D4 L8). However, their last win against a side top of the table was against Man City in January 2012 at Goodison Park.
- Man City have conceded just six goals in their last 23 games in all competitions since losing 2-0 at Spurs in November, and never more than once in this run. The last top-flight team to go 24 matches without conceding more than once in all competitions were Liverpool between November 1994 and March 1995.
- Among the 137 teams Carlo Ancelotti has faced more than once in the league in his managerial career, his worst losing percentage is in games against Man City, losing four of his five games against them (80%).
- Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored more Premier League goals against Everton (7) than he has versus any other side in the competition. The Brazilian has netted in each of his last five games against the Toffees in the competition – no-one has ever scored in six consecutive Premier League appearances against them (Les Ferdinand and Ian Wright also 5).
- Man City’s Ilkay Gündogan has scored 11 goals in his last 12 Premier League matches, as many as in his previous 86 appearances in the competition. He has scored a brace in his last two matches and could be the first City player to score 2+ goals in three consecutive Premier League appearances.
- Raheem Sterling has scored in each of his last four away appearances for Man City in all competitions – the last City player to score in five in a row was Sergio Agüero between April and September 2019.
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