THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games which include MANCHESTER CITY v MANCHESTER UNITED at 4.30pm – all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST BROM V NEWCASTLE
12pm It’s another massive Super Sunday in the Premier League and while all eyes will be on the Manchester Derby later, we do have some cracking fixtures today. We start with a massive game towards the bottom of the table as West Brom host Newcastle. With Fulham having to play Liverpool later and Newcastle starting the day three points ahead of Fulham, this is an excellent chance for them to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone. They should fancy their chances of beating a poor West Brom side, and I’m surprised to see West Brom as favourites here. At best I would have the sides very close together in the market or possibly Newcastle as favourites, but the 2.56 looks very short on West Brom.
Long-term readers will know I’m not a fan of Newcastle, however they arrive into this fixture in good form. They have actually played good football since beating Everton 2-0, but they have had a tough fixture list – they had to play Chelsea and Man United, and then were very unlucky not to lose 2-1 to Crystal Palace; xG finished 2.43 to 0.76 to Newcastle! You could say they are playing their best football of the season while West Brom were very lucky to beat Brighton the other day. They aren’t playing very bad football at the moment but from a value point of view I think the odds are all wrong on BETDAQ Betting Exchange here. I can’t have West Brom as short as 2.56 and I’m very happy to lay them.
The Striker Says:
Four point lay (liability) West Brom to beat Newcastle at 2.56 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbanew
MATCH STATS
- West Brom have won seven points from their last four Premier League home games against Newcastle (W2 D1 L1), one more than they had from their first seven against them in the competition (W1 D3 L3).
- Newcastle are looking to complete their first Premier League double over West Brom since the 2008-09 season, when both sides were eventually relegated to the Championship.
- Newcastle lost their last Premier League match against a side in the relegation zone, going down 0-1 at Sheffield United. They’ve not lost consecutive games against teams in the bottom three within the same season since March 2013 (vs Reading and Wigan).
- West Brom have won none of their eight Premier League games played on Sundays this season, drawing two and losing six. Their last such victory in the competition was back in April 2018 at Manchester United (1-0).
- Since picking up nine points in a run of five games in November/December (W3 D0 L2), Newcastle have won just nine points from their subsequent 15 Premier League matches (W2 D3 L10).
- Newcastle have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League away games, winning the other two. All three of the Magpies’ victories on the road this season have been by a 2-0 scoreline and have been goalless at half-time.
- West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has won 13 Premier League matches against Newcastle United (D4 L7), two more than he has against any other opponent.
- Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón has scored three goals in his two appearances against West Brom in all competitions, giving the Magpies the lead after just 20 seconds in the reverse league fixture at St James’ Park this season.
- In their 1-1 draw with Wolves, 13 different Newcastle players attempted an effort at goal, the most for a team in a Premier League match since April 2018 (Arsenal vs Stoke, 13).
- West Brom’s Matt Phillips has been directly involved in five goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Newcastle (2 goals, 3 assists), assisting Darnell Furlong’s goal earlier this season.
LIVERPOOL V FULHAM
2pm It’s been a while since we saw Liverpool as big as 1.4 at home to beat a side in the bottom three, but they come into this fixture off the back of five straight losses at Anfield. That’s a remarkable stat given they went so long unbeaten here in the Premier League, and they have fallen drastically in form since around November. Despite the drop in form, the 1.45 does make appeal to me. Fulham have had some good momentum getting back in touch in the battle to stay up, but they were totally outclassed by Spurs midweek and while Liverpool have been poor they were able to breeze past Sheffield United recently. I feel Liverpool will outclass Fulham here.
Of course, with every home loss the pressure grows on the team and Klopp. I can’t see them sacking him, but now they look like missing out on a Top Four finish and you never know what football boards do these days! It was a very tight game with Chelsea here and they were just outbattled really. Looking at the xG figures, Fulham will give Liverpool chances and it’s just a case of whether they can take them here. Fulham haven’t been creating a huge amount of chances, they have grinded out their results apart from the Everton game and Liverpool are too big to turn down at 1.45. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably low however given their current run.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Fulham at 1.45 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivful
MATCH STATS
- Liverpool have lost just one of their 23 top-flight home games against Fulham (W16 D6), with that lost coming in May 2012 under Kenny Dalglish (0-1).
- Fulham haven’t avoided defeat in both league games against Liverpool in a season since beating them twice in the 2011-12 campaign.
- Fulham have won just two of their 26 away league games against reigning top-flight champions (D3 L21), beating Ipswich 1-0 in March 1963 and Manchester United 3-1 in October 2003.
- Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 Premier League home games against Fulham, shipping just one goal in each of the other three meetings.
- Fulham are looking to become the first London side to win away at both Everton and Liverpool in the same Premier League season since West Ham United in 2015-16.
- Fulham are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League away games (W1 D6) – their longest run without defeat on the road in their top-flight history. The Cottagers have also kept three clean sheets in their last five Premier League away games, more than they had in their previous 45 on the road in the competition (2).
- Liverpool have never lost a home Premier League match against a newly promoted side under Jürgen Klopp (P15 W14 D1). Klopp’s last home league defeat against a promoted team was in December 2013 as Borussia Dortmund manager, losing 2-1 to Hertha BSC.
- Two English managers have won away league games at Anfield this season, with Graham Potter and Sean Dyche winning with Brighton and Burnley respectively. The last Premier League season to three away wins by Englishmen against Liverpool was 1993-94: Dave Bassett (Sheff Utd), Kevin Keegan (Newcastle) and John Deehan (Norwich).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 15 goals in his 11 home Premier League games against newly promoted opposition (9 goals, 6 assists).
- During his Premier League playing career, Fulham manager Scott Parker only played at Old Trafford (9 games) more often without winning than Anfield (8). This will be his first league match as manager there, with only two of the last 38 English managers winning their first away game at Anfield – Ian Holloway in 2010 with Blackpool and Paul Clement in 2017 with Swansea.
MANCHESTER CITY V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm The highlight fixture of the weekend – the Manchester Derby! This is still a “top of the table clash” as City sit in first and United are second – just there is now 14 points between them! City have been incredible recently, and fans of xG would have saw this run coming as they have been creating some incredible numbers. They might have been grinding out games around Christmas time by a goal, but they were creating xG figures of 3+. The title race is over, but they can really kill it off with a win here. United have dropped a lot of points recently but because nobody has caught up they still have second position. They were very poor midweek against Crystal Palace, and City are a Max Bet for me here at the odds.
It’s hard to see how United can stop City from scoring given how many goals they have conceded this season and while they can comeback from a goal or two down against the average sides – you just can’t do that against the top teams. Sometimes United have pretty boring games with the top sides – we saw another boring 0-0 with Chelsea recently – but I fully expect City to dominate this game. The 1.53 is close to ten ticks too big for me and it can’t be anything else only a rare Max Bet. United’s xG figures from their last two away games read 0.81 and 0.39 – if City score early we could see a big win. I wouldn’t put anyone off some fancy prices on handicaps either. We landed a nice 4.1 shot on City midweek, and Any Other Home Win is 6.8 again here.
The Striker Says:
Five point win Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 1.53 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmncmun
MATCH STATS
- Man City have lost three of their last five home league games against Manchester United (D1 L1), including a 1-2 defeat last season. They’ve not lost consecutive home league games against Man Utd since April 2010.
- Manchester United are looking to win three consecutive away games in all competitions against Manchester City for the first time since a run of four between November 1993 and November 2000.
- Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in both of their meetings with Manchester United this season (0-0 Premier League, 2-0 League Cup). The last team to record three shutouts against the Red Devils within a single season was Arsenal in 1998-99.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in 28 games in all competitions – if they avoid defeat here they will set a new club record for games without defeat. The Citizens have also won each of their last 21 matches, the third ever longest run in all competitions among teams in the big five European leagues.
- Manchester United have drawn their last three matches goalless in all competitions – they have never drawn four in a row goalless, while the last Premier League side to do so was Spurs back in February 2001.
- Manchester City haven’t trailed for a single minute in any of their last 19 Premier League games – if they don’t fall behind in this game it will be a new record in the competition’s history (Arsenal also 19 between Dec 1998-May 1999).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in 21 away Premier League matches (W13 D8) – in top-flight history, only Arsenal have had a longer away unbeaten run, going 23 without defeat between August 2001 and September 2002 and 27 without defeat between April 2003 and September 2004.
- Ole Gunnar Solskjær could become the first manager in Manchester United’s history to win each of his first three away meetings in all competitions with Manchester City.
- Manchester United’s Anthony Martial has scored away in the Premier League against Man City in both 2018-19 and 2019-20. Only Wayne Rooney (4) and Eric Cantona (3) have scored in more away Manchester derbies for the Red Devils in the Premier League, with only Cantona doing so in three consecutive appearances.
- Man City’s Sergio Agüero has scored nine goals in 16 Manchester derbies in all competitions. However, eight of those nine goals came in his first eight meetings with the Red Devils, with the Argentine netting just one in his previous eight against them.
TOTTENHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.15pm We finish the day with another big favourite as Spurs are trading 1.51 to beat Crystal Palace. My feelings towards this game are very similar to the Liverpool game above in the sense that Spurs aren’t a side you can fully trust at the moment, however the 1.51 to beat a side like Crystal Palace is too big to turn down. Spurs come into this game with good momentum too as they have won their last three. They scored eight goals in two games, and while they only beat Fulham 1-0 midweek their xG figures was impressive and they could have easily scored more – they deserved to. Palace have been very poor this season, and it seems to be that their best chance is a boring draw.
That being said, they achieved that midweek against Manchester United in a very boring 0-0. They will likely opt to employ the same tactics here, however the 1.51 on Spurs is too big to turn down – I’m just happy to keep stakes in check as Spurs have been pretty poor this season. Palace create very little going forward however, and looking at the xG figures Spurs come into the game in good form. They should get the job done here. Liverpool, Manchester City and Spurs would make a pretty good BETDAQ Multiple today in my opinion!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace at 1.51 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotcrl
MATCH STATS
- Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W9 D2), their longest ongoing run against any side currently in the division.
- Since a 1-0 win at White Hart Lane in November 1997, Crystal Palace are winless in their last eight away league games against Spurs (D2 L6), failing to score in the last seven and losing each of the last five.
- Since Crystal Palace’s return to the Premier League in 2013, Tottenham have kept 11 clean sheets in 15 top-flight meetings with the Eagles – more than any side has against another in the division in that time.
- Crystal Palace are winless in their last five Premier League London derbies, though four of these have ended level. The Eagles last had a longer run without a victory in league London derbies in the 2017-18 campaign (7).
- Following their 2-1 win at Brighton last time out, Crystal Palace are looking to win consecutive away league games for the first time since June 2020. The Eagles’ first victory in that run was against Brighton.
- Since winning 5-1 at West Brom in December, Crystal Palace have scored just five goals in their subsequent seven Premier League away games. The Eagles have averaged just 4.8 shots per game in their last four away league games, compared to 12.1 in their first nine this season.
- Spurs’ Harry Kane has scored five goals in 13 Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace, with all of these goals coming at Selhurst Park. Only Jamie Vardy and Michael Owen (both 6 vs West Bromwich Albion) have scored more Premier League goals against an opponent with all of them coming in away games.
- Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored more Sunday goals than any other Premier League player this season, netting 12 in 16 games. Only six players have scored more Sunday goals in a single Premier League campaign, with Wayne Rooney holding the record (17 in 2011-12).
- Tottenham’s Son Heung-Min has been directly involved in six goals in seven Premier League starts against Crystal Palace, scoring five times and assisting once. He only has more Premier League goals against Southampton (8) than he does against Palace (5).
- Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has won just one of his 18 Premier League matches against Spurs, with his win ratio of 5.6% the worst among all teams he’s faced at least five times in the competition. His sole win was in November 2008 with Fulham at Craven Cottage.
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