CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: SPOTTING THE LOSING FAVOURITES: It was high drama when Goshen fell at the last with the Triumph Hurdle at his mercy. Some have never forgiven him; some see him as redeemed by his Wincanton win the last day. But how safe is a ‘certainty’ at Cheltenham; how many star names have flopped at the festival?
STARTING TOMORROW: See how they won, race by race, one week on.
CHELTENHAM TOP OF THE FLOPS
Goshen doesn’t seem to like the place. But try telling his fans that: present them with his Cheltenham record; show them what a loser he is when the chips are down and he’s hot favourite. And it will have no effect on them whatsoever.
Goshen will be a blind bet for many punting in the Champion Hurdle who will point to his runaway Kingwell Hurdle win in February as proof positive that he’s back and he’s a big-time player.
FACT: Goshen came to the last in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle nearly 10 lengths up when he unseated rider (5-2 favourite).
FACT: Goshen was then favourite twice on the Flat (at 5-2 on and evens) and lost both.
FACT: Goshen returned to Cheltenham in December but made it four consecutive losing races as favourite when, at 6-4, he was last of 10.
FACT: Wincanton was his sole success in the last 12 months and the only time he was NOT favourite!
In the last 10 years only 79 favourites have won from 273 races at the Cheltenham Festival – that’s below average at around 29% – and there have been other shocks like the Goshen non-Triumph.
And, please note, there’s a strong recent trend for hot big-name horses to flop more than once at the festival. Two of the unlucky seven below, Faugheen and Kauto Star, were beaten three times at short prices:
ANNIE POWER-1 Second: 11-8 favourite, Ladbrokes World Hurdle 2014
ANNIE POWER-2 Fell last, four lengths clear: 2-1 on fav Mares Hurdle 2015
APPLE’S JADE-1 Third 2-1 on favourite, Mares Hurdle 2018
APPLE’S JADE-2 Lost place 3 out; 7-4 favourite, Champion Hurdle 2019
BENIE DES DIEUX-1 Leading when fell last; 11-10 on fav Mares Hurdle 2019
BENIE DES DIEUX-2 Beaten half length; 6-4 on fav Mares Hurdle 2020
DEFI DU SEUIL 5-2 on favourite, 13 lengths 4th of 5 Champion Chase, 2020
DOUVAN-1 Finished lame, 9-2 on favourite, Champion Chase 2017.
DOUVAN-2 Travelling strongly, fell four out, 9-2 third fav behind Altior 2018.
FAUGHEEN (3) Sixth, third, third (4-1, 4-1, 3-1 fav) different races 2018-20
KAUTO STAR (3) Fell, 3rd, PU (11-8 on fav, 5-1, 3-1) Gold Cups 2010-12
Tomorrow through to Friday I shall look at every race for stats and facts that will guide you to the winner. But I’ll also be searching for the short-priced losers along the way!
I’ll be asking how to spot the flops among favourites; what’s the difference between them?
How did I land SIXTEEN consecutive winning lays over the three Cheltenham festivals of 2008, 2009 and 2010?
4-1 ON FAVOURITE LOOKS ROCKY
⭕ 2.00 Southwell Is Rockstar Ronnie really the 4-1 ON ‘good thing’ of the morning market?
Ronnie is in the Skelton band so might be rated a solo act in a race like this and start even shorter this afternoon. But what did he beat at Kelso last month?
The runner-up has form figures of 000020 and next time he ran was sixth of nine (beaten 69 lengths).
The third horse home fell either side of that race (so F3F), when even the champion jockey, Brian Hughes, was unable to keep him off the floor.
In Ronnie’s previous race, when second, the winner had been beaten a total of 74 lengths in his first two starts over hurdles.
The third, a short-head behind Ronnie, has had eight starts and is 0-8, contriving to get himself beaten every time: 22203323.
What can beat Ronnie today? I shall have my pound on Wireless Operator, unexposed second favourite yet 7.2 against on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this morning.
He’s with a new trainer, Olly Murphy, and his jockey, Adrian Heskin, is on cloud nine after winning the Adonis at Kempton on Alan King’s Triumph hope, Tritonic.
What’s more, Murphy and Heskin are 100% when they team up at Southwell.
Have a small-stakes double-whammy (lay one, back the other) but I shall record only the win bet.
After all, I don’t want to spoil my lays record before Cheltenham even starts! I want to begin my lays assault then.
It’s a hard game but you don’t often get 4-1 ON with an obvious chance of biting the dust!
NAP UP?
⭕ 2.10 Wetherby Looks a match between Up For Parol and Barrichello.
Up For Parol is worth another chance after his Doncaster debut – he was backed in a quite a decent race, travelled well and only tired close home to finish fourth. He is entitled to improve for his rules debut and as a winning pointer there should be no problems in the stamina department.
He is much preferred to the consistent but frustrating Barrichello who now has a form sequence of 3-3222. The concern would be that many of those runs have come in modest contests and he doesn’t appear to be improving, although the drop back in trip should help.
Up For Parol looks the more progressive.
DOCTORS ORDERS
⭕ 2.35 Southwell Harry Whittington’s Juniper (selected yesterday) travelled like the winner, traded odds-on in running on BETDAQ but ended up dropping away quite tamely.
The current form of the yard remains strong though (4 winners from last 13 runners) and they have another strong chance today at Southwell with Docpickedme who looks by far the stable’s best chance from three runners on Monday.
The five-year-old won a point last March and has been highly tried in two starts since over hurdles at Aintree and Chepstow. He’s been beaten 16 and 17 lengths respectively but far from disgraced on either occasion and this looks a more realistic level.
Main danger is likely to come from Drakes Well – in contrast though the Bridgwater yard is now 18 runners without a win.
Drakes Well, an experienced pointer, came close to springing a 50/1 shock at Fontwell on his rules debut when beaten three parts of a length. That came on heavy ground and it will be a good deal less testing here.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Southwell (win 10)
BET 1.6pts win WIRELESS OPERATOR
2.10 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 7.1pts win (nap) UP FOR PAROL
2.35 Southwell (win 10)
BET 3.9pts win DOCPICKEDME
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
