DILIGENT DAQMAN EDGES UP TO 49 POINTS PROFIT FOR THE WEEK: Would you Adam and Eve it! Daqman’s naps hat-trick was lost when Adam Kirby came from the rear a short-head too late on Diligent Harry (2nd 2-1) to catch Ryan Moore in a Ladbrokes-sponsored sprint at Lingfield yesterday, following 1-1 and 6-4 winning naps on Monday and Tuesday. A 7-1 runner-up spot for Aasleagh Fawn (win and place) edged a profit on the day to take the earnings to 49 points in three days.
CHELTENHAM DAY 3: CHAMPIONSHIP RACES WITH NO DEDUCTIONS: Join Daqman today as he continues his search for winners at Cheltenham next week. He’s looking for stats and facts to reveal value bets at offers and prices you can afford, with NO DEDUCTIONS (yes, 0% commission) at Cheltenham all week.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Which are best and worst races for favourites? Where would you logically look for lays? Here are the stats and facts for every day at the festival.
Today Daqman moves on to the Stayers Hurdle day next Thursday. It’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and a special feature on favourites. And don’t forget there’s CHELTENHAM 0% COMMISSION ON BETDAQ
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites of 5-1 or shorter in Thursday races which show moderate results for the market leader – races 4 and 7 – lost 9 times out of 11.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, Thursday (Marsh Novices’ Chase) Eight of the last 10 winners were 6-4 to 4-1 at SP. Ages: 6 and 7 nine out of 10.
The Irish have won eight out of the 10: Willie Mullins (4). Ratings: 154, 152, 155, 144, 151, 157.
You need a previous festival runner over hurdles (10/10) who is a distance winner plus (10/10) and, for preference, has won a Graded chase or hurdle (9/10).
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Two favourites won in 10 years; six were double-figure SPs. Had six to 10 runs over hurdles (9/11).
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. Previous winners between 2m 4f and 2m 6f (9/11).
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites prices too big.
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase) Three favourites up in 10 years. Ages 7 and 8 (7/9). Course form essential: 12 out of 14 had previously won at Cheltenham or placed in Grade 1 there.
Twelve out of 14 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 12/14 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level.
Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 3.05 Cheltenham, Thursday (Stayers Hurdle) Four out of 10 to the favourite, but Willie Mullins (2) won with two at double-figure SPs. Ages 6 and 7 (6/7).
The last 14 winners all had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 10 of them as winners; 13 out of 14 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168. 146.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Always a hot favourite, with three from five losers since 2016: WON evens, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, WON 11-8, 7th 4-6.
⭕ 3.40 Cheltenham, Thursday (Stable Plate) Favourites: 3/9; outsiders 12-1 to 50-1 (5/9). Won from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (11/11).
Trainers: David Pipe (3 in 11 years). Ages: six to nine (9/10); weights 10st 13lb or less (8/10). Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 4.15 Cheltenham, Thursday (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Favourites three out of five. Ages: all four five-year-olds, one aged six.
Trainers: W Mullins (5/5). Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional, 141. All placed in Grade 1 or 2.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Willie Mullins has won every time but with SP ranging from 4-7 to 50-1. Hard to back, hard to lay.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Kim Muir) No favourite has won in the last eight years, and SPs range from 6-1 to 40-1.
Ages: 7 and 8 (seven out of eight). Weight: 11st 4lb to 11st 9lb (5/7). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141. Ran at the festival before (8/11).
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 fav UR (2016); 5-1 fav UR (2017), 4-1 fav 2nd (2018), 3-1 fav 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020)
ONE FAVORI THAT’S LIKELY TO WIN
⭕ 2.15 Wincanton The best-quality race (class 3) opens the programme. It gives Favori De Sivola the chance of completing a hat-trick interrupted by an unseat at Hereford three weeks back.
One result is a change of rider. Tom Scudamore takes over, just a few days after his 50th winner with that wonderful ride round Kelso on our Grand National fancy, Cloth Cap. I took 3.55 Favori on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Onefortheroadtom has won at this level but the rain has turned the ground against him on all known form.
Putdecashonthedash won at this meeting a year ago and returned to form at Taunton after trainer Keiran Burke ‘tinkered’ with a wind op the gelding had had in Ireland a few years ago.
Premiumaccess has failed to lift himself from novice class and you just can’t tell whether a Tizzard runner is going to give you full value at this time.
The handicapper keeps easing Forgot To Ask a pound or two and he always runs well but is finding it hard to make the breakthrough (form figures 3322); another who hasn’t won since his novice days.
MORE MAGIC FROM COBDEN-NICHOLLS
⭕ 4.00 Wincanton Harry Cobden, who has a 31% strike rate on his home turf at Wincanton, can surge into second spot in the jump-jockeys’ title race today.
Brian Hughes, who rides at Carlisle, is on 111 but has been closed down in recent days by the two Harrys, Skelton (106) – no rides today- and Cobden (105). The gap is 34 to the next highest score!
Though they may win, I can’t back Cobden’s two for Colin Tizzard, who is still very iffy: currently with a couple of winners then five out of seven fail to finish.
But his pair for Paul Nicholls Carry On The Magic (4.00) and Gala De Corton (5.30) fit the partnership’s pattern of recent winners.
Cobden made his 500th strike for Nicholls when Flash Collonges scored at Kelso five days ago, after a hat-trick of novice-hurdlers at Musselburgh, Taunton and Newbury.
Carry On The Magic (4.00) is in the same mould today, and the £160,000 Points buy carries a long-time Nicholls forecast that he could be very useful but has had his problems getting to the track. Better than evens on BETDAQ (2.2) this morning.
ARAFI IS UNEXPOSED AT THE MILE
⭕ 7.00 Newcastle Spring Romance has won at Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton and the grey daughter of Zebedee will be at Chelmsford on Saturday, bidding for a nine-day double.
That was the Hannon stable’s answer when I asked of Arafi: ‘How good is the one you beat five lengths the last day?”
Arafi was completing a hat-trick when slamming Spring Romance at Wolverhampton. She could have gone to Kempton four days later and carried only a penalty instead of waiting for a full 13lb ratings hike to take effect.
That takes her overall climb in the handicap to 24lb and it means she must make a two-grade leap from her class-5 treble straight into class 3 on the back of her holiday.
But the key to the move is that Arafi ‘has a touch of class’ (Hannon again) and is stepping up a furlong, so goes to Newcastle unexposed at the trip.
Angel of The Glen has already scored in class 3 and already won at a mile, but has no form on AW tracks. The dam’s line is American so the transition may not be a problem.
Made In Italy, third in the Italian Oaks, is just a class-6 winner in England, and Toronado Queen, though placed in classes 2, 3 and 4, has won only in class 5.
Angel Of The Glen’s six-months’ absence sways me to Arafi (BETDAQ 3.3 taken).
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 4pts win FAVORI DE SIVOLA
4.00 Wincanton (win 10 (nap))
BET 10pts win CARRY ON THE MAGIC
7.00 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win ARAFI
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