THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between LEEDS v CHELSEA, CRYSTAL PALACE v WEST BROM, EVERTON v BURNLEY, FULHAM v MAN CITY all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

LEEDS V CHELSEA

12.30pm Another intriguing Saturday in the Premier League! We have some fascinating markets today except for Man City later who are heavy favourites – it promises to be an excellent day with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We kick the day off with Leeds hosting Chelsea in what should be an excellent game. It’s fair to say that Leeds have been one of the best teams to watch as a neutral fan this season – most of their games have been end-to-end goal filled affairs. Even when they lost 1-0 to Wolves recently, they were very unlucky as they created an xG of 2.73. It will be interesting to see how they get on against Chelsea here who have been in excellent form since sacking Frank Lampard.

Chelsea have taken a huge step forward in the race for a Top Four finish in recent weeks with a 1-0 win over Liverpool and then a 2-0 win over Everton. West Ham are now the closest challengers, but Chelsea are in pole position and could actually go past Man United and Leicester if their form continues. Leeds play such an open game that their tactics should really suit Chelsea here, and I feel the 1.8 is the best bet of the day. It’s not quite a max bet because of how good Leeds have been going forward, but Chelsea should be able to deal with them as they have been very solid at the back. Chelsea can outscore Leeds and hopefully get the day off to a winning start.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Chelsea to beat Leeds at 1.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleeche

MATCH STATS

  • Leeds have lost just one of their last nine Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D3), with this the first such meeting since a 1-1 draw in December 2003.
  • Chelsea are looking to secure their first league double over Leeds since the 1988-89 campaign in the second tier, while the Blues last won home and away against Leeds in the same top-flight season back in 1936-37.
  • Chelsea won their last away game against Leeds, winning a League Cup tie 5-1 in December 2012 – they’ve never won consecutive away games against the Whites in all competitions before.
  • Of the 48 opponents Chelsea have faced away from home at least 15 times in all competitions, the Blues’ lowest win rate is against Leeds (14% – P49 W7 D14 L28).
  • Chelsea have lost away to a promoted club in each of the last three Premier League seasons (Newcastle 2017-18, Wolves 2018-19, Sheffield United 2019-20). They’ve never done so in four consecutive campaigns in the competition, already drawing at West Brom and winning at Fulham so far this season.
  • Leeds have lost consecutive Premier League games for the fifth time this season, though they’re yet to lose three in a row so far. They last lost three consecutive league games in November 2017.
  • Leeds have conceded a league-high 29 goals in the first half of Premier League games this season – four more than Chelsea have conceded in total this term. However, 61% of Chelsea’s league goals this season have come after half-time (27/44), with only Newcastle and Sheffield United netting a higher share in the second half.
  • Chelsea have won five of their six away games in all competitions under Thomas Tuchel so far (D1), having lost four of their last five under Frank Lampard (W1).
  • Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel is unbeaten in his nine Premier League games so far – only Maurizio Sarri (12) and Frank Clark (11) have had longer runs without defeat from the start of their Premier League careers.
  • Chelsea midfielder Jorginho has scored six Premier League goals this season, with all of them coming from the penalty spot. Only James Milner in 2016-17 (7) has scored more goals in a Premier League season with all of them being penalties.

CRYSTAL PALACE V WEST BROM

3pm This is an interesting game from a betting point of view as we have two very limited sides here. I’m been keen to get against both of them in recent weeks and we landed a nice lay on West Brom against Newcastle last weekend. We also landed a nice bet on Spurs against Crystal Palace, and it’s hard to see too many goals here as both have been poor going forward. Perhaps we’ll see a game full of mistakes however, and I’m not keen on lumping on unders. On the face of it, Crystal Palace look too short at 2.3 here – I expect a closer game than those odds suggest. I know West Brom have been poor, but so have Crystal Palace. I can understand why Palace are favourites, but I’d have them at least ten ticks bigger.

The bet that appeals to me is a small bet on the draw at 3.3. I can easily see a 0-0 here looking at the xG figures as both sides are poor going forward. Palace have struggled creating goals for two years now and obviously West Brom have big issues and will get relegated this season. Under 2.5 goals will be the interest of a lot of football punters today given how few goals we have had in West Brom’s recent games, but I think it’s fairly priced at 1.66 – at the same time I wouldn’t put anyone off putting it in their Acca’s! I can’t look past the draw here in what should be a very low quality game.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.3 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrywba

MATCH STATS

  • Crystal Palace have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with West Brom (D1), winning 5-1 at the Hawthorns in the reverse fixture.
  • West Brom have lost four of their six Premier League away games against Crystal Palace, winning the other two in April 2015 (2-0) and August 2016 (1-0).
  • Crystal Palace are looking to complete their first ever top-flight double over West Brom.
  • Crystal Palace have failed to score in their last three home league games, as many as they had in their previous 14 at Selhurst Park. The Eagles haven’t gone four home league games without a goal since their first four of the 2018-19 campaign.
  • After a run of eight league games between December and February in which they conceded at least twice, West Brom have shipped just two goals in their last five Premier League matches. However, the Baggies have also scored just twice in this run (W1 D3 L1).
  • West Brom (22.7) and Crystal Palace (23.5) have the two lowest expected goals (xG) totals in the Premier League so far this season, while the Baggies also have the highest xG against in the competition so far this term (49.1).
  • West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has faced former sides Everton (0-1) and Newcastle (0-0) in his last two Premier League games. This game will see him become just the second manager to play three consecutive Premier League games against former clubs after Roy Hodgson in August 2018 (West Brom, Fulham and Liverpool).
  • Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games against West Bromwich Albion, netting a brace in the reverse fixture at the Hawthorns.
  • Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke has scored five goals in 21 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than he managed in his previous three campaigns combined (6 in 71 games).
  • Matheus Pereira has been involved in eight Premier League goals this season (5 goals, 3 assists), at least twice as many as any other West Brom player. However, the Brazilian hasn’t scored or assisted in any of his last seven appearances for the Baggies.

EVERTON V BURNLEY

5.30pm Another interesting game! Everton suffered a big loss on Monday night against Chelsea in the race for a Top Four finish. That really puts them on the backfoot and they can’t afford after further setbacks. Burnley have been hard to beat lately, and we have a great game ahead. Burnley have managed two 1-1 draws with Leicester and Arsenal in recent weeks, however they were lucky to draw with Arsenal as they conceded an xG of 2.86. They also conceded an xG of 1.42 against West Brom so there are some worrying signs at the back. Everton have been pretty good this season – of course they have thrown in some poor performances and come up short against the top sides – but can we expect anything else?

I fully take on board Burnley have been grinding out results lately and that’s what they are good at. They might not put in the best performances but they do get results. That being said, Everton should outclass them here and I can’t look past the 1.93. For me Everton should be closer to 1.8 given the way they have played this season and I’m very happy with the 1.93. I’m happy to keep the stakes reasonably low given Burnley’s recent run but the xG figures all point to an Everton win here. They have been creating enough to beat this Burnley side.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Burnley at 1.93 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevebrn

MATCH STATS

  • Everton have won five of their six Premier League home games against Burnley (83%) – among teams they’ve faced at least five times at Goodison Park in the competition, they’ve only got a higher home win rate against Fulham (93% – 14/15).
  • Burnley won 1-0 at Liverpool in January – they’ve never won away league games against both Everton and Liverpool in the same season before.
  • Everton have lost four of their last six home league games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 22 at Goodison Park. They did win their last such match however, 1-0 against Southampton.
  • Five of Burnley’s last seven Premier League games have ended level (W1 D1), though all of these draws have come in home games. None of the Clarets’ last six away league games have been drawn (W2 L4).
  • Six of Burnley’s 20 Premier League goals this season have come in the opening 15 minutes of games, with no side netting a higher ratio in this time (30%). However, the Clarets have also conceded a league high 10 times in the opening 15 minutes this season.
  • No team has failed to score in more different Premier League away games than Burnley this season (8), with only Sheffield United (6) netting fewer goals on the road than the Clarets (8). Burnley have won their last three away league games in which they’ve found the net.
  • Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored two goals in three Premier League substitute appearances against Everton, but has failed to find the net in any of his five starts against the Toffees in the competition.
  • Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has lost his two Premier League home games against English managers (vs Steve Bruce’s Newcastle and Scott Parker’s Fulham). The Italian had only lost two of his first 17 such games in the competition (W12 D3).
  • Against no side has Everton’s Alex Iwobi been involved in more Premier League goals than he has vs Burnley (4 – 2 goals, 2 assists), with these four goal involvements accounting for 13% of his 31 in total in the competition.
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s 13 Premier League goals this season have been worth 14 points to Everton, more valuable than any other player in the competition so far this term. Indeed, it’s also the most points won by an Everton player in a single campaign in the competition.

FULHAM V MANCHESTER CITY

8pm We finish the day with Fulham hosting Man City after an excellent run of results. They have got themselves right back in the mix and now they have a realistic chance of staying up whereas a couple of weeks ago it looks like they were certain to go down. As we saw with Watford last season however, it can be difficult to keep that momentum going to actually go past the other sides. They have put in so much work to get back in touch, now they need a second wave to go past. And fixtures like this don’t help – indeed a thrashing from City could derail their progress; although we have to be realistic here, they can hardly be expected to beat City.

That win for Fulham against Liverpool last weekend was a complete bonus. But I can’t see anything other than a City win here – they are in excellent form. United stopped their winning run last weekend, but they bounced right back with a 5-2 win over Southampton, landing a nice 3.5 shot for us too. However for this game, I think we’ll see a lack of goals. Fulham have really kept games tight in recent weeks so I don’t see City running riot. I’m happy to keep stakes small because I don’t want to commit too much going against City scoring in this form, but under 2.5 goals at 2.12 appeals a lot. I can see City running out 1-0 or 2-0 winners and unders is worth a small investment.

The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulmci

MATCH STATS

  • Fulham are winless in their last 13 Premier League games against Man City (D3 L10) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They’ve lost the last eight in a row by an aggregate score of 23-3.
  • Manchester City have lost just one of their 13 Premier League away games against Fulham (W7 D5), going down 2-1 in November 2005 under Stuart Pearce.
  • Fulham have won just four of their 27 Premier League meetings with Man City, with just one of those wins coming at home. Manchester City are the only team the Cottagers have faced at least 10 times in the competition against whom they have more away wins (3) than home wins (1).
  • Manchester City have won their last six meetings with Fulham in all competitions by an aggregate score of 18-0. Only against Wigan (7 between 2010-2013) have they had a longer winning run without conceding a single goal.
  • Following their 1-0 win at Liverpool last time out, Fulham could become just the second side in Premier League history to beat the reigning champions and the league leaders (in either order) in consecutive matches, after Everton in February 2010 (vs Chelsea and Manchester United).
  • Fulham have won three of their last six Premier League games (D2 L1), more than they had in their previous 24 in the competition (W2 D9 L13). The Cottagers have also kept five clean sheets in their last seven league games, one more than in their first 21 this term.
  • Manchester City have won their last seven Premier League away games by an aggregate score of 19-3. Indeed, the Citizens have lost just once on the road in the Premier League all season (W9 D3).
  • Fulham have scored a league-low eight home goals in the Premier League this season. However, they’ve also conceded just 18 at home so far, with Craven Cottage being the lowest scoring ground in the Premier League in 2020-21 (26 goals).
  • Man City’s Phil Foden has been involved in six goals in his six away starts in the Premier League this season, scoring four and assisting two.
  • In a run going back to April 2018, Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in 16 goals in 16 Premier League starts in London (10 goals, 6 assists), netting the winner against Arsenal in the Citizens’ last game in the capital.

Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.

Bet via BETDAQ mobile below