LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews CELTA VIGO v LEVANTE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CELTA VIGO V LEVANTE
8pm Friday night football comes from La Liga as Celta Vigo take on Levante. You might feel that this isn’t the most glamorous La Liga fixture and you would be right, but I have a bet here that has really caught my eye on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s fair to say that these two are playing very average football at the moment. They both sit in mid-table and they are both finishing the season poorly. There’s only three points between them in the table, and I would expect a pretty even game.
I have to say I was a little surprised to see Celta Vigo odds on and that was a very tempting lay, but I can’t get away from under 2.5 goals here at 2.12 looking at the xG figures from both sides. If anything, Celta Vigo actually give away more chances so that’s why I was surprised to see them odds on and I wouldn’t put anyone off laying them – they look a pretty good value lay – it’s just I feel under 2.5 goals is a higher value bet in my opinion.
It’s easy to see why Levante are a mid-table side – they don’t create a lot of chances. When you look at their recent xG figures you see figures likes 0.28, 0.38, 0.27, 0.61 and 0.65. They’ve only created over 1 once in their last six, and that came against Villarreal in a 5-1 loss where Villarreal were probably happy to play an open game given the score. That’s why I’m happy Celta Vigo are the one to conceded the most chances, because Levante are unlikely to take advantage of that.
Levante always have to grind out games and they tend to keep games tight, apart from that 5-1 loss to Villarreal, they have had under 2.5 goals in five of their last six. Celta have seen more goals, but I feel this could be a very boring game. It’s all about the odds at the end of the day, and I’d have unders odds on looking at the figures. Celta aren’t exactly banging in the goals or creating chances for fun – they have recent xG figures like 0.75, 0.68 and 0.52 in their last three. I’d be happy to lay Celta, but I can’t get away from unders at the odds – it’s very close to a Max Bet, but not quite.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCelLev
