3-1 WINNER FROM NOWHERE PUTS DAQMAN ON 50% NAPS STRIKE: With Punchestown a law unto itself, Daqman searched hard for a nap among the five English meetings yesterday, and came up with a filly at Redcar who’d never been in the frame: Celestial Queen (WON 3-1) literally came from nowhere (in fact, 040 in three starts). Celestial Queen put Daqman on to a 50% strike rate (7-14) for best bets in the last two weeks. The standings are:
DAQMAN 11, PRICEWISE 6
LAYS LOGIC 5-6 (83%)
NAPS 7-14 (50%)
SUPERNAPS 3-4 (75%)
FLASHBACK – the case DAQMAN made for yesterday’s NAP
BETDAQ VALUE ALL THE WAY ON 2,000 GUINEAS DAY TOMORROW: Tomorrow is a Classic example of BETDAQ value before a race is run. It’s 2,000 Guineas day at Newmarket, but it’s also Super Saturday with 0% Commission on ALL Sports. Daqman will be hunting down the extra value in low, low overrounds. Friday headlines:
DETTORI GUINEAS BATTLEGROUND
PHIL TEED UP FOR TORRENS DRIVE
WE ALL NEED A CONTINGENCY PLAN
HONEYSUCKLE CHAMPION SUPERNAP
DETTORI GUINEAS BATTLEGROUND
It’s a Classic Ballydoyle move. Nothing but the best as Aidan O’Brien calls on Frankie Dettori to ride alongside Ryan Moore in Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas.
Moore is on the gamble of the race, Wembley, while Dettori will take over Battleground, winner of the Chesham and the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
The one-two in the National Stakes, Thunder Moon and Wembley, meet again after being the placed horses in the Dewhurst behind St Mark’s Basilica, who has been ruled out.
O’Brien has won four of the last six Guineas. Last year’s winning trainer, Andrew Balding, will saddle outsider Mystery Smiles.
Richard Hannon, the last to saddle a long-shot to victory (Night Of Thunder 40-1 in 2014) sends out Chindit, behind in the Dewhurst on soft ground but winner of his four other starts.
PHIL TEED UP FOR TORRENS DRIVE
⭕ 4.15 Punchestown This Grade A novice handicap chase (2m 5f) has been shared out in the last seven runnings by Willie Mullins 4 and Jessica Harrington 3 – the rest nowhere – although Philip Hobbs was the successful English raider in 2015.
Hobbs has brought two over to Punchestown this week, Dostal Phil in this one and, in the Pat Taaffe Chase tomorrow, Musical Slave who won a handicap-series final here at the 2019 meeting.
Dostal Phil stepped up from novice class to run third at Aintree in the Red Rum Chase earlier this month, and his breeding suggests that he will appreciate the extra half-mile today.
Simon Torrens (takes 3lb off) swerves A Wave Of The Sea on whom he won at Leopardstown in February.
Torrens’ allowance means Phil is getting 17lb from Willie Mullins’ Asterion Forlonge. Mullins won it off the same top weight with Kemboy (2018), the subsequent Punchestown Gold Cup winner, but I doubt his runner today is in that class.
Asterion Forlonge was favourite to land a hat-trick when he lined up in the 2010 Supreme Novices Hurdle but was 14-lengths fourth off Shishkin and he would be 18-lengths fourth to Monkfish over fences in February before third at both Cheltenham and Fairyhouse.
I prefer Mullins’ course winner, Antey, who jumps for fun and improved at today’s trip when second in a big field at Gowran Park last month.
Jessica Harrington’s Port Stanley, who ran up against the big names like Energumene and Easywork at 2m, looked nailed on for a handicap when upped to 2m 4f at Cork, just held in a big field, giving the winner 7lb.
BETDAQ value 5.9 Dostal Phil, 9.6 Antey
WE ALL NEED A CONTINGENCY PLAN
⭕ 4.50 Punchestown (Glencaraig Lady Mares Chase) It’s the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the star-studded field includes Crisp, Spanish Steps and three past and future winners of the race The Dikler, Royal Frolic and L’Escargot.
I was just a boy, of course, but I backed Glencaraig Lady (Frank Berry for Francis Flood) and the pleasure of that 6-1 winner was standing alone – or nearly so – from the crowd.
That way you get a far more satisfaction and a much better price, particularly in modern times in the search for value among traders on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
If you’d stood against the crowd and laid the favourite in this mares’ chase, you would have won every time in the six runnings of the race!
It’s an example of how so many winners at this meeting come from ‘nowhere’, like Willie Mullins’ Klassical Dream yesterday.
I chose Saldier over Klassical Dream because the winner had a history as a wild thing, unruly and wasting his energy early by defying restraint. Yesterday he and Flooring Porter competed rodeo style at the start. One got away with it; one didn’t.
Willie Mullins could have another ‘hidden horse’ in Contingency, a close second in a huge field over hurdles at this meeting in 2019. Has won two chases since.
BETDAQ value 25.0 Contingency
HONEYSUCKLE CHAMPION SUPERNAP
⭕ 5.25 Punchestown (Champion Hurdle) Willie Mullins has won seven of the last 10 – eight in all – including four in a row by Hurricane Fly.
But his hope, Sharjah, today faces two mares, Honeysuckle and Epatante, both Cheltenham champion hurdlers, who will try to emulate Willie’s Vroum Vroum Mag (2016).
Epatante last used her mares allowance to advantage in beating Sharjah for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle of 2020.
But the same pair were unable to make any impression on Honeysuckle in the big one at Cheltenham this year, after she’d beaten Abacadabras 10 lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore have already won with her 11 times in a row, and should take care of the same old same old opposition. I could get 8 for 10 in the BETDAQ orange to supernap stakes.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.15 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 4pts win DOSTAL PHIL
BET 2.25pts win ANTEY
4.50 Punchestown (win 50, place win 10)
BET 2pts win and place CONTINGENCY
5.25 Punchestown (supernap)
BET 20pts win HONEYSUCKLE
6.35 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 2pts win CAID DU BERLAIS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
