RACHAEL AND HER SUPER-CHAMP HONEYSUCKLE SPRINT TO THE LINE: Amid the crazy craic of Punchestown and the guessing game of the Classic trials, two horses didn’t let you down this week: the evergreen Stradivarius (Frankie Dettori) at Ascot and, yesterday in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, Honeysuckle’s astonishing sprint finish under Rachael Blackmore. Both Stradivarius and Honeysuckle were Daqman supernaps! Standings:
DAQMAN 12, PRICEWISE 6
LAYS LOGIC 5-6 (83%)
NAPS 8-15 (53%)
SUPERNAPS 4-5 (80%)
‘I TOLD YOU SO’ DAQMAN FORECAST FOR THE GUINEAS FAVOURITE: Daqman is famous for his ABC guides and his See How They Won stats on the big races. Today he finds that, more than a month on, his ante-post predictions for the 2,000 Guineas when the favourite Wembley was 9.0 are still so valid that he hardly needs to change a word. Headlines:
DAQMAN’S 9.0 SCORE WITH WEMBLEY
FRANKIE KNOWS THE FORM IN DUBAI
DARK HORSE CAN CATCH THEM LATE
CUP DRINKS ARE ON TOM COLLINS
I’M WAITING ON THE MARKET, SIR
DAQMAN’S 9.0 SCORE WITH WEMBLEY
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas) With the Aintree Grand National meeting and Punchestown’s five-day festival intervening, Daqman gave BETDAQ Tips an early insight into the Classics. On MARCH 30, he wrote:
“WEMBLEY (3yo, Aidan O’Brien) If High Definition is to swerve the Guineas, then – for me – Wembley and Battleground take pole position of the Ballydoyle contingent for Newmarket.”
I said last backend that, after he scythed through the field to almost cut down St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst, Wembley was one of my Fortune Cookies for 2021.
Battleground has ‘grown up’ doing the winter and looks a ‘tank’, says my man, but he agrees that – at the prices – Wembley is the pick, though much depends on the ground.
“If I were to put them in race-distance order on fastish ground, I would nominate a mile for Battleground, 10 furlongs for Wembley and a mile and a half for High Definition; an easier surface makes Wembley hard to beat in a Guineas and on top of the ground a Derby horse.”
BETDAQ: 2,000 GUINEAS: 6.0 Battleground, 9.0 Wembley; EPSOM DERBY: 5.0 High Definition, 17.0 Wembley’
DAQMAN says: Nothing has changed my view in the last 32 days. In fact, events have firmed up my opinion.. and firmed up some of those BETDAQ prices, too!
High Definition did indeed swerve the Guineas and so, too, has St Mark’s Basilica; and it’s for sure that Wembley and Battleground are in pole position.
High Definition is around 7-2 favourite for the Derby, with Wembley still at 16-1.
Here’s how I see the 1-2-3 and the rest of the field (alpha order) as they line up at Newmarket this afternoon:
1: WEMBLEY 6.2 (from 9.0) on BETDAQ
2: BATTLEGROUND 11.5 on BETDAQ
3: POETIC FLARE Best outsider at 18.5 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
Dewhurst (10th of 14) came too soon for him but stylish winner of the Leopardstown Guineas Trial. He has shown he travels well but still finds a change of gear.
Like Wembley, was well backed during the last week or so. The only Irish runner with a prep run.
4 ONE RULER: His Rowley Mile CD win (beat Van Gogh) and second in the Futurity were on soft-heavy but both sire (Dubawi) and dam’s sire (Shamardal) tend to instil sudden improvement. Had an impressive racecourse gallop on the track.
CHINDIT: Well down the field in the Dewhurst (soft) following a hat-trick. Impressed in the Greenham but might struggle out of the Dip here.
MASTER OF THE SEAS: Behind Thunder Moon in the National Stakes and won an ordinary Group 3 this year, the Craven Stakes.
MUTASAABEQ: Improver. Won two races on the Rowley Mile course but short on experience and racereaders will be looking closely at him with Ascot in mind.
THUNDER MOON: Well forward and beat Wembley in the National Stakes but third in the Dewhurst and sons of Zoffany are nearly horses as far as the major Classics are concerned (Albigna beaten favourite Irish 1,000; Ventura Storm won Italian Guineas)
FRANKIE KNOWS THE FORM IN DUBAI
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Saeed Bin Suroor has suddenly struck form for Godolphin with three winners in the last five days.
He and Frankie Dettori got close to the Godolphin winner at Meydan, Bright Melody, with the 98-rated Dubai Mirage.
Now here they are with Dubai Legacy (off 96) getting 8lb from Bright Melody. A course winner, stepping up to a trip he clearly needed when running on third as a 22-1 outsider in a 7f Meydan Listed in February. The winner was beaten only two lengths in a Group 1 next time.
Bell Rock disappointed in cheekpieces the last day; Starcat may improve for being gelded but hasn’t won since his maiden, always a bad sign. Canny Scot Mark Johnston muddies the waters with two front-runners.
BETDAQ value 11.0 Dubai Legacy
DARK HORSE CAN CATCH THEM LATE
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes) The favourite, Lazuli, is a Group-3 winner but beaten on both visits to the Rowley Mile.
Emaraaty Ana, third in the Abernant last month, has suffered four defeats in a row at Newmarket.
Tom Marquand rode a hat-trick yesterday to take his fortnight’s score to 11-33 and Arecibo (the only course-and-distance winner) could be the surprise packet for Robert Cowell, ace trainer of sprinters. But Cowell has three runners.
Safest bet may be Came From The Dark, who got up to beat Garrus at Newbury, second run after a gelding op. On the upgrade and could pick them off late on.
BETDAQ value 6.6 Came From The Dark
CUP DRINKS ARE ON TOM COLLINS
⭕ 2.40 Thirsk (Thirsk Hunt Cup) The stats suggest that you can’t win this with more than 9st 2lb and that a high draw is best.
So, with William Haggas in hot form (10 winners in a fortnight), I latched straight on to Tom Collins off 8st 12lb and out of gate 13.
The Dubawi colt, who has bags of stamina on the dam’s side, was gelded in January and switched from David Elsworth to Team Haggas last month, so I’m chancing my arm that he’ll improve for a change of scenery and is in such good trim that they decided they had to go for this.
One we know is in form is Nugget, short of room twice when trying to get to Astro King at Nottingham last month, and now a bit better off at the weights.
BETDAQ value 4.3 Nugget, 9.2 Tom Collins
I’M WAITING ON THE MARKET, SIR
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Jockey Club Stakes) Haggas also has a fine chance at Newmarket with the handsome Al Zaraqaan, a Golden Horn colt out of a Shamardal mare.
He is the stable’s Yorkshire Cup hope at the Dante meeting, but meets a tough nut here in Sir Ron Priestley, who was on a roll in 2019 until beaten in the St Leger. Will try to run them into the ground, dropped back in trip.
Ron’s another who made an excellent return at Nottingham last month, when he eased past Ocean Wind, who was not disgraced, second, to Stradivarius in the Sagaro Stakes on Wednesday.
The one they have to beat on form, rated 7lb in front of this field, is Pyledriver, who took last year’s ‘ Royal Ascot Derby’ King Edward V11 Stakes and then the Great Voltigeur, before finding the St Leger a bit too far, third. But he finished last on his only previous Newmarket run.
Only 1.4 points separated three horses in the BETDAQ market this morning so I decided not to bet early but wait for trading developments.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2pts win DUBAI LEGACY
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win CAME FROM THE DARK
2.40 Thirsk (win 10, win 20)
BET 3pts win NUGGET
BET 2.25pts win TOM COLLINS
3.40 Newmarket (win 50 nap, win 50 and place win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 10pts win WEMBLEY
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.75pts win and place POETIC FLARE
Stakes saver BET 1.5pts win BATTLEGROUND
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
