WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP: The PGA Tour makes its annual stop in Charlotte this week, where some of the biggest names in the sport will tee it up in a tournament that has become one of the most popular on the schedule over the past decade, the Wells Fargo Championship.
This event has it all: a perfect spot on the calendar, lovely Carolina springtime weather, a massive $8.1 million purse, and, most importantly, a great host course, Quail Hollow Country Club, a 60-year old layout that has been renovated extensively over the years and is now a championship-worthy test. Though it’s the permanent home of this tournament, you might recall that Quail Hollow played host to the 2017 PGA Championship, won by Justin Thomas, and despite some differences in the setup, the course still has a major championship feel– thick rough, firm and fast greens, and a difficult, dramatic stretch of finishing holes, the daunting “Green Mile”.
Indeed, there’s no faking it at Quail Hollow– it’s a ball-strikers layout that harshly penalizes mistakes, and at nearly 7,500 yards it’s one of the longest par-71s in professional golf. Length off the tee will be a key component to success this week– “bomb and gouge” is definitely in play– and the small, undulating Bermuda greens have given some players fits over the years. Scores are generally high in this event, with the winning number usually falling around 10-under, so this is a week where patience and a great short game will be at a premium. The ability to hit it 320 off the tee won’t hurt either, of course…
Max Homa triumphed here in 2019, and since this tournament was a casualty of the pandemic last year he’s your defending champ. His career has really been on the upswing in recent months, so it’s not surprising to see him listed near the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market, with only 10 players currently sporting shorter odds, though at 34.0 he’s a bit short for me. There’s some serious eye candy at the top of the market, as 4 of the world’s top 5 players are in attendance this week, but are any of them playing well enough at the moment to justify the price? To ask that question is to answer it, I suppose. We’ll be looking elsewhere… here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Webb Simpson (17.5)- Though Simpson has yet to win this season, he’s been playing some of the best golf of his career, racking up nine top-20 finishes in twelve starts, including five top-10s and a T12 at the Masters a few weeks back. His ball-striking continues to be elite, as he ranks 26th on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, but the difference this year has been his putting: he’s turned a weakness into a strength and now ranks 18th in strokes gained putting, which is almost difficult to believe if you know Simpson’s history with the flat stick. The Charlotte resident is a dues-paying member at Quail Hollow so he should know these greens better than anybody, and he has a great record at this event, finding the top-25 five times in his last nine appearances and finishing runner-up in 2015. He’s my top-ranked player on the board this week and is worth a bet, even at shorter than 20/1.
Stewart Cink (52.0)- If his name were Tom Johnson instead of Stewart Cink, and if you didn’t know he was 47 years old, I’ve got to believe that Mr. Johnson would be shorter than 52.0 based on current form and course history. After all, Cink’s recent success stretches beyond his victory at the RBC Heritage– prior to that he finished 12th at the Masters and 19th at the Honda Classic, two events held on lengthy courses that don’t bear much resemblance to Harbour Town. And lest we forget, the Heritage was technically Cink’s second victory of the season, as he began the Fall Series by winning the Safeway Open. So, if we’re just looking at facts and numbers… two wins this season, three straight top-20 finishes including a victory last time out, a history in this tournament that includes four top-25 finishes in his last five appearances… what’s not to like here? Cink is a terrific value this week at better than 50/1.
Joel Dahmen (102.0)- We haven’t heard much from Dahmen lately, but that’s been due to inactivity as opposed to poor play, as he’s only teed it up twice since his 1-shot victory in the Dominican Republic six weeks ago, and one of those occasions was the Zurich team event. But with a win under his belt, he’s essentially playing with house money for the next few weeks, which might be just the vibe the laid-back Dahmen needs to parlay a great week into a great season. He certainly should have some positive memories around Quail Hollow after finishing runner-up in this tournament in 2019, the last year it was held, and finishing 16th in 2018, his only other appearance here. When you’re looking at triple-digit longshots and trying to find angles that make sense, you’re not going to do much better than someone who is coming off a win two starts ago and has never finished out of the top-20 in the event he’s now playing. Don’t sleep on Dahmen this week.
