WHAT A STAR (16-1), WHAT A STEEL (6-4)! DAQMAN TWO FROM THREE No sooner had Daqman published his staking plans for the rest of the season yesterday than he struck with two winners out of three and a profit for the second day running.
Wednesday: profit 23.25
WON 16-1 BHARANI STAR Staked to win 21 points
WON 6-4 VALYRIAN STEEL SP bet (awarded race after interference)
Tuesday: profit 4.40
WON 9-4 GRANARY QUEEN (nap)
DAQMAN’s 16/1 strike on Wednesday ….
BIG VALUE OFFERS ON BETDAQ AGAIN AS DAQMAN NAPS A 7.6 OFFER: Daqman analyses the 14 probables for Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas in order of the official ratings. For today’s racing, Daqman finds four at value prices on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE and naps a 7.6 soft-ground horse at Sandown tonight.
IRISH GUINEAS ON THE RATINGS
⭕ 3.20 Curragh, Saturday (Irish 2,000 Guineas) GOING forecast: Soft. DRAW: 10 years of winners by stall: 3, 3, 3, 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 3, 2. RATINGS: winners by official rating: 119, 114, 110, 119, 122, 106, 122, 107, 112, 114. TRAINERS (overall): Aidan O’Brien (11), Kevin Prendergast (1).
118 POETIC FLARE (Jim Bolger) Hit a flat spot, ran on, beaten just over two lengths, sixth, in Sunday’s French 2,000 Guineas (very soft) after winning the Newmarket version on a sound surface.
117 LUCKY VEGA (Jessica Harrington) Middle Park runner-up as a juvenile, only half a length away, third, behind Poetic Flare in the Newmarket Guineas, staying on well enough.
116 THUNDER MOON (Joseph O’Brien) There’s no better colt to illustrate the topsy-turvy world of form from last year on to the Classic scene so far.
Thunder Moon beat Wembley in the National Stakes (7f good) but was beaten by St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley in the Dewhurst (soft) and, on his reappearance, was stone last of 14 to Poetic Flare in the Newmarket Guineas (firm); pushed along, no response.
117 WEMBLEY (Aidan O’Brien) Beaten threeparts of a length by St Mark’s Basilica, the subsequent French Guineas winner, when second of 14 in the Dewhurst (soft) but only 11th to Poetic Flare in the Newmarket Guineas on firm.
115 MAC SWINEY (Jim Bolger) Won both Futuritys at the Curragh and at Doncaster in 2020 but disappointed on his return in the Derby trial at Leopardstown; kept on fourth (good ground). The rain has come for him.
113 VAN GOGH (Aidan O’Brien) Won Saint-Cloud Criterium on heavy; no impression eighth in the Newmarket Guineas on firm.
111 BATTLEGROUND (Aidan O’Brien) Chesham winner (7f soft) last year and second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, good; ‘unsuited by the track’ when 13th in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, 9-2 favourite (firm).
111 MONAASIB (Kevin Prendergast) Runner-up to High Definition in the Beresford (1m; good to yielding) and a length-and-a-half third behind Poetic Flare in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial (good)
108 LA BARROSA (Charlie Appleby) 2-3 as a two-year-old, including a Group 3, only headed near the finish by Master Of The Seas in the Craven Stakes.
97 The Rosstafarian (Hugo Palmer); slow away, stayed on, fifth to Master Of The Seas and La Barrosa in the Craven Stakes.
93 Agrimony (Joseph Murphy) Lightly-raced Pivotal colt; big-field second at the Curragh before breaking his maiden at Gowran Park 17 days back.
91 Rebel Step (Andrew Slattery) Looks a good handicapper and nothing more
90 Emporio (Donnacha O’Brien) Maiden; second four times in five starts, including to Agrimony the last day.
86 San Martino (Aidan O’Brien) Well exposed; broke his maiden on heavy last summer before third to Rebel Step as beaten favourite in a handicap. Likely pacemaker.
A FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING..
⭕ 2.55 and 4.00 Market Rasen Outside the big tracks of Aintree and Cheltenham, his Midlands raids on Market Rasen (23% strike rate) and Uttoxeter (27%) are Dan Skelton’s biggest money-earners, with more than £600,000 gleaned at each.
Skelton has just had a spell of 4-7, still standing, one of them at 12-1, described in the analysis in the Racing Post as ‘having lost her way but dropped to her last winning mark.’
If either of his at Rasen today were to win, a similar epithet would apply, and we’ll have small bets on them in the hope that one wins; I won’t have a place bet in circumstances where they either bounce back or they don’t; I leave that to you.
Fair Mountain is 17lb lower than when, favourite, runner-up in a Listed on today’s course in July 2018.
BETDAQ value 8.6 Fair Mountain (2.55)
Very First Time has dropped to his last winning mark, which was in this class-4 grade (Doncaster; January 2020). He’s tried Listed, class 2 and class 3 since.
BETDAQ value 10.0 Very First Time (4.00)
NANDO’S CLASS IS ON PARADE
⭕ 6.55 Sandown (Heron Stakes) Four horses in this have won their last two starts but Highland Avenue (on 110), Mostahdaf (101)), Mithras (98) and Bullace (93) are officially separated in the ratings by up to 17lb, if the handicapper is correct.
Team Gosden goes for a hat-trick in the race but makes life difficult for punters by running two of those which are trying to land a treble in their own right, Mithras and Mostahdaf.
Bullace is progressive and the well-bred Highland Avenue (Dubawi out of a Shamardal mare) won the Feilden, and has to give 3lb all round.
On the ratings, that lets in Nando Parrado, winner of the Coventry at Royal Ascot last June, then twice second, in the Morny to the flying Campanelle and in the Lagardere on heavy.
A good run back in the Greenham confirmed his class and he goes to the top of the ratings here because of Highland Avenue’s penalty, though that one will have to perform really well as a talking horse with Group-1 aspirations.
BETDAQ value 8.2 Nando Parrado
SOFT WILL SUIT URBAN VIOLET
⭕ 7.55 Sandown It’s usually another month and more before we get stuck into the three-year-olds with their allowances against older horses.
But this fillies’ handicap (1m 1f) is an exception, with nine out of 10 in the decade going to the Classic generation; just the one (in 2019) claimed by an older mare.
I can’t back Sayifyouwill, trying a new trip and with Amanda Perrett right out of form. George Scott (Reverential) is missing strike badly with horses placed 334242 in the last fortnight.
Richard Hughes (1-17) saddles a class-6 AW winner who has failed even to place on turf.
So I’m going for mud-lover Urban Violet on her handicap debut. Mick Channon had a well-backed winner at Yarmouth yesterday and has booked Silvestre De Sousa.
BETDAQ value 7.6 Urban Violet
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 Market Rasen (win 10)
BET 1.3pts win FAIR MOUNTAIN
4.00 Market Rasen (win 10)
BET 1pt win VERY FIRST TIME
6.55 Sandown (win 10)
BET 5pts win HIGHLAND AVENUE
BET 1.3pts win NANDO PARRADO
7.55 Sandown (win 20, nap)
BET 3pts win URBAN VIOLET
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
