SUNDAY’S PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the Premier League fixtures on Sunday including CHELSEA v LIVERPOOL at 4.30pm. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRENTFORD V ASTON VILLA
2pm We might be still losing Premier League fixtures to Covid19, but we have a busy Sunday afternoon ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. All eyes will be on Chelsea v Liverpool in the main TV slot today at 4-30pm, but we have three very interesting markets starting at 2pm. We actually have a very interesting day ahead from a betting point of view, we don’t have an odds on favourite today which is quite rare. We start the day with Brentford hosting Aston Villa, and I’m a little surprised to see Villa trading as big favourites here. We have a pretty open market, but I wouldn’t have Villa as short as 2.42 here. As I said prior to the Brentford v Man City game here, Brentford are a very impressive side at home and Villa will have to perform very well to get all three points here. I know Villa have been playing well since Gerrard took over and he has given them a huge boost in confidence, but they are simply too short in the betting here in my opinion.
Let’s take a look at the Brentford home form this season. On the face of things, they have pretty average results. They have been beaten here by Norwich and Brighton for example, however their performance level tells a different story. They lost here on the 29th December to Manchester City, but they kept them to an xG of 1.09 which is an achievement against City. Other than that, they have put together some very impressive xG figures here. Even in the 1-0 loss to Chelsea, they finished the game with an xG of 2.16 in a game they bossed. They managed a 3-3 draw with Liverpool too, again finishing with a higher xG and they were exceptionally unlucky to lose to Norwich, finishing that game with an xG of 2.92 in a 2-1 loss. They seem to be more comfortable in front of their own fans, and as I said above Villa will have to play very well to win here. Villa are going well under Gerrard, but the 2.42 is very much worth laying here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBreast
MATCH STATS
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last seven league games against Aston Villa (W3 D4), with all three of their victories coming in home games.
● After winning their first three away league games against Brentford (between 1935 and 1947), Aston Villa have lost their last three visits to the Bees in league competition (between 2017 and 2019).
● Aston Villa have won four of their last five Premier League away games against promoted sides (L1), more than they had in their previous 22 such games in the competition (W3 D8 L11).
● Aston Villa won 2-1 against Crystal Palace in their last Premier League game in London. Only once in their last eight campaigns in the competition (since 2011-12) have the Villans won consecutive games in the capital, winning at Fulham and Arsenal last season.
● Brentford won their first league game in both 2020 (4-0 v Bristol City) and 2021 (1-0 v Luton), last doing so in three consecutive calendar years between 1990 and 1992.
● Aston Villa have lost their first league game in three of the last six calendar years (2016, 2017 and 2021), more than they had between 1995 and 2015 combined (W9 D10 L2).
● Aston Villa haven’t drawn any of their last 15 Premier League games since a 1-1 draw with Brentford in the reverse fixture back in August. It’s the Villans’ longest run without a league draw since a run of 16 games between January and May 1998.
● Brentford have lost five home Premier League games this season; only fellow promoted clubs Norwich (7) and Watford (6) have suffered more defeats on home soil in the 2021-22 competition.
● None of Aston Villa’s nine Premier League away games this season has finished level (W3 L6), with two of their three victories on the road coming in their three such games under Steven Gerrard.
● Emiliano Buendía has either scored (3) or assisted (1) a goal in all four of his league games against Brentford, with the Argentine netting his first goal for Aston Villa in the reverse fixture back in August.
EVERTON V BRIGHTON
2pm It’s been a while, but Everton hope to get back into Premier League action as they host Brighton. Everton haven’t played since drawing 1-1 with Chelsea on the 16th of December due to Covid19. With that break comes a lot of questions – how will their fitness levels be going into this game, how much have they trained etc. I have generally kept stakes low in situations like this over the Christmas period, and this is definitely a game for small stakes. Rafa Benitez was probably glad of the break in play as he was coming under immense pressure as Everton manager after the 4-1 loss to Liverpool. Since then Everton have managed to beat Arsenal and draw with Chelsea, but they put in a very poor performance in between in a 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace. It’s hard to get a full read on this Everton side, but they are pretty average this season and 15th position probably reflects how good they are even if their fans feel that’s way below their level. The xG table doesn’t move them too much, only up two places which is marginal.
Perhaps it’s a sign of the times for Everton that Brighton are marginal favourites here. Brighton claimed yet another stoppage time result against Chelsea on the 29th December, they are making a great habit of scoring massive goals late in games this season! Although Brighton haven’t been winning many games lately, indeed their broke their run without a win with a 2-0 win over Brentford on Boxing Day, they are playing much better football than Everton. It’s hard to know what type of performance we’ll get from Everton here with the break due to Covid19, and on balance I feel the best option here is a small bet on Brighton at the odds. They are playing better than Everton this season, and the 2.78 is worth a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton to beat Everton at 2.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEvebri
MATCH STATS
● Everton are looking to secure their first league double over Brighton since 1980-81, following their 2-0 victory at the Amex Stadium back in August.
● Brighton have never won away against Everton in all competitions (D2 L7), losing all four of their Premier League visits to Goodison Park.
● Everton have lost their first league game in each of the last four calendar years, last having a longer such run of defeats between 1957 and 1963 (run of 7).
● Brighton have lost their first league game in just one of the last 12 calendar years (0-1 vs Wolves in 2016), with all four of their games in the Premier League ending in a draw.
● Brighton have won just two of their 17 Premier League games in the month of January (D7 L8). Of teams to have played at least 10 games in the month, only Hull City (11%) have a lower win rate than the Seagulls (12%).
● Everton have scored a league-high 76% of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (16/21), with no side netting fewer overall goals before half-time than the Toffees this term (5).
● Since the start of October, Everton have won the joint-fewest points in the Premier League (6), winning just one of 11 matches in this time (W1 D3 L7). It’s the first time the Toffees have won as few as one match across October, November and December in a top-flight league season in their history.
● Everton have won just 19 points after 17 Premier League matches this season (W5 D4 L8), 13 points fewer than they did at this stage last season (32). It’s their biggest drop in points between seasons at this stage since 2013-14 (34) to 2014-15 (21).
● Brighton have won more points thanks to goals scored in the 90th minute or later than any other Premier League side this season (5), including Danny Welbeck’s late leveller against Chelsea last time out.
● Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in three of his last four Premier League appearances against Brighton. Only against Newcastle (5) has he scored more goals in the competition than he has against the Seagulls (3).
LEEDS V BURNLEY
2pm We finish the 2pm games with an absolutely huge game towards the bottom of the table. I think it’s fair to say that this will be Leeds biggest game of the season to date. If they lose, Burnley will just be two points behind them with a game in hand, and if Watford win their game in hand they will go past Leeds on goal difference too. Leeds are in a very dangerous situation, but they can take the pressure off with a win here. If Leeds do win here, we’ll definitely have a bottom four of Watford, Burnley, Newcastle and Norwich but if Burnley win it becomes a bottom five and Leeds are slap bang in a relegation fight. There’s a lot on the line here, and it will be interesting to see how the teams perform. Burnley have been grinding out a few draws lately, but they couldn’t stop Manchester United the other night. Leeds have had a tough fixture list going into the New Year, they had to play Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal. They conceded 14 goals in three games, and while they will welcome the drop in class here, they still have so many issues at the back.
Leeds will be looking at this game thinking it’s an excellent chance to get three points, and why wouldn’t they given the form of Burnley this season. However, I don’t feel Leeds should be as short as 2.1. Leeds have been very poor this season, and where they are in the table is a fair reflection of their form. The xG table keeps the same bottom five, and given the amount of chances Leeds have been conceding this season I wouldn’t be confident enough to take the 2.1 here. As I said above, Burnley have been grinding out a good few draws recently. With Leeds, it’s unlikely we’ll see a boring 0-0 given they like to play such an open game, but the best value play here looks to be the draw at 3.65. Leeds just haven’t played well enough to justify odds of 2.1 here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeebur
MATCH STATS
● Everton are looking to secure their first league double over Brighton since 1980-81, following their 2-0 victory at the Amex Stadium back in August.
● Brighton have never won away against Everton in all competitions (D2 L7), losing all four of their Premier League visits to Goodison Park.
● Everton have lost their first league game in each of the last four calendar years, last having a longer such run of defeats between 1957 and 1963 (run of 7).
● Brighton have lost their first league game in just one of the last 12 calendar years (0-1 vs Wolves in 2016), with all four of their games in the Premier League ending in a draw.
● Brighton have won just two of their 17 Premier League games in the month of January (D7 L8). Of teams to have played at least 10 games in the month, only Hull City (11%) have a lower win rate than the Seagulls (12%).
● Everton have scored a league-high 76% of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (16/21), with no side netting fewer overall goals before half-time than the Toffees this term (5).
● Since the start of October, Everton have won the joint-fewest points in the Premier League (6), winning just one of 11 matches in this time (W1 D3 L7). It’s the first time the Toffees have won as few as one match across October, November and December in a top-flight league season in their history.
● Everton have won just 19 points after 17 Premier League matches this season (W5 D4 L8), 13 points fewer than they did at this stage last season (32). It’s their biggest drop in points between seasons at this stage since 2013-14 (34) to 2014-15 (21).
● Brighton have won more points thanks to goals scored in the 90th minute or later than any other Premier League side this season (5), including Danny Welbeck’s late leveller against Chelsea last time out.
● Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in three of his last four Premier League appearances against Brighton. Only against Newcastle (5) has he scored more goals in the competition than he has against the Seagulls (3).
CHELSEA V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm We finish Sunday in the Premier League with a cracker as Chelsea host Liverpool. Both these sides have dropped points in recent weeks and watched Manchester City build a sizable lead at the top of the Premier League. Guardiola is at pains to say the title race isn’t over yet, but it’s pretty close to being over and for the loser here, it’s definitely over. Before the weekends fixtures, Liverpool had a game in hand over Manchester City but they were nine points behind. They were very unlucky to lose to Leicester on the 28th, finishing the game with an xG of 2.5 when losing 1-0. Liverpool have been playing superb football in general this season, and they have been unlucky with their dropped points more often than not. The only game they have been really outplayed in this season was the 2-2 draw at Spurs. When these two met earlier in the season we saw a 1-1 draw, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Liverpool absolutely dominated the game with an xG of 3.35 and were very unlucky not to win.
While Liverpool come into the game on the back of a defeat, they haven’t changed their performance level. They should have beaten Leicester, and would have if they took their chances. This seems an ideal time to back Liverpool because Chelsea haven’t been firing lately. We saw Lukaku saying he’s unhappy in the pressure mid-week and that’s something Chelsea don’t need at the moment. They have dropped a lot of points recently, and their performance level has definitely dropped. I know they have had issues with Covid19, and they have been unlucky with their requests for games to be postponed requested but the fact remains they aren’t creating a lot of chances at the moment. Liverpool arrive here in peak form, against an under-form Chelsea side, and the 2.56 looks Max Bet material.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Chelsea at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCheliv
MATCH STATS
● After losing four consecutive Premier League games against Liverpool between 2019 and 2020, Chelsea are unbeaten in their last two against the Reds (W1 D1), though both of these games have come at Anfield.
● Liverpool have won their last two Premier League away games against Chelsea – only one visiting team has won three consecutively at Stamford Bridge in the competition, with Blackburn Rovers doing so between 1993-94 and 1995-96.
● The away side won just 12.5% of the first 32 Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool (W4 D7 L21). Since then, the visiting team has won 41% of the 27 games between the sides (W11 D8 L8).
● Liverpool are winless in their three Premier League games in London this season (D2 L1), with the Reds conceding as many goals in these games as they had in their previous 12 visits to the capital in the competition (8).
● Since a 4-1 win at Manchester United in March 2009, Liverpool are winless in six games against reigning European champions in all competitions (D3 L3). All three of their draws in that time have come against Chelsea.
● Chelsea haven’t won their opening league game in any of the last five calendar years (D3 L2) since beating Crystal Palace 3-0 in 2016. Only once have they had a longer run of winless such games in their league history (10 between 1929 and 1938).
● When playing their first league game of a calendar year away from home, Liverpool have won just one of their last nine such games (D4 L4), going down 1-0 at Southampton in their first game of 2021.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored three goals in his nine Premier League games against Chelsea, though they’ve all come at Anfield. Among players to have previously played for the Blues in the competition, only Kevin De Bruyne (4) has scored more goals against them than the Egyptian.
● Chelsea midfielder Mason Mount has been involved in 12 Premier League goals this season (7 goals, 5 assists) – the most of any English player in the competition, and his joint-best return in a single Premier League campaign (also 12 in 2019-20).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 13 goals in his last 13 Premier League games in London (8 goals, 5 assists). Meanwhile, no Liverpool player has scored more Premier League goals in the capital than the Egyptian (13, level with Steven Gerrard).
