MONDAY SERIE A: Our football tipster The Ultra previews AC Milan v Spezia and Fioentina v Genoa both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.

AC MILAN V SPEZIA

5.30pm We have a very busy week in Europe this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we kick it off with action from Serie A for Monday night football! We start the evening with AC Milan hosting Spezia in an important game for both sides. AC Milan are fighting it out at the top of the table with Inter Milan and it seems to be turning into a two horse race with Napoli falling out of the race with their recent results. Napoli started the weekend five points behind AC Milan and also play this evening, so they aren’t totally out of it but it looks like AC Milan will be the only major danger to Inter not lifting the title again this season. There’s no other way of saying this, but if they are even going to challenge Inter then they have to win games like this. Spezia are in a relegation battle, and although they won a massive game last weekend against Genoa, you have to remember Genoa are in the bottom three and there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here. Nevertheless, it’s so close at the bottom of the table every game is massive for Spezia now.

The market is expecting a straightforward home win here, with AC Milan trading as short as 1.32 at the time of writing. To be honest it’s hard to see past Milan winning here – Spezia are a very limited side and Milan have been rock solid this season. When you look at their xG figures you can see that they aren’t as good as Inter, but in terms of the opposition today, they are leagues apart. That being said, Spezia produced a shock 1-0 win away to Napoli prior to the Christmas break, so that might make you think twice about lumping on Milan! They were exceptionally lucky to win that game though, they conceded an xG of 1.76 in their 1-0 win and it was just one of those days for Napoli when they were on a bad run. Spezia consistently concede plenty of chances when you look at their figures and Milan can cover the handicap here. They have been scoring plenty of goals lately – they’ve netted ten goals in their last three games and they can cover the 1.5 goal handicap here. I can’t see past that at 1.88 as my best bet.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan -1.5 goals to beat Spezia at 1.88 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMilSpe

FIORENTINA V GENOA

7.45pm Next we have Fiorentina hosting Genoa in another big game for both sides. As I mentioned in the game above, Genoa are slap bang in a relegation battle and time is running out quickly for them. The bottom two are a little detached from the rest and as the weeks go by their chances of staying up get smaller. They started the weekend four points away from Cagliari who sit above them in 18th, even bridging that gap will be a challenge let alone actually going past another two sides. To make matters a little worse, the team one point below them in the table have a game in hand on them. The pressure is on Genoa is every game now, but their performances just haven’t been good enough this season. The xG table leaves them in the bottom three, so they pretty much deserve to be where they are – the relegation zone is a fair reflection of their level. Fiorentina are heavy odds on favourites, and they should get the job done here.

While every game is big for Genoa at the moment, the same applies to Fiorentina but for different reasons. They are really in with a chance of Europa League football when you look at the table. Lazio are in 6th position, but Fiorentina are three points behind them with two games in hand. Roma and Jose Mourinho will obviously have something to say about that, but Fiorentina have a good chance and they will also be hoping for an extra spot should things work out with the winner of the Coppa Italia already getting into Europe so that opens an extra spot. Winning fixtures like this is obviously a must if they want to keep the pressure on Lazio and Roma, and they’ll have to performance much better than their recent game when they lost 4-0 to Torino. I’m not quite sure where that performance came from, because they had been playing good football heading into that game. They had drawn two games, but they deserved to win looking at the xG figures. For example, in the draw with Sassuolo xG finished 3.15 to 1.0 to Fiorentina. Genoa give away a host of chances, and with home advantage Fiorentina can record an impressive win here. The 2.22 -1.5 goals on the handicap is too big to ignore.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Fiorentina -1.5 goals to beat Genoa at 2.22 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQFioGen