PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The Striker’s headline fixture of the day is ARSENAL v LEICESTER at 4.30pm.
CHELSEA V NEWCASTLE
2pm We have a very busy Sunday in the Premier League this week with six fixtures to enjoy! Unfortunately five of them kick off at the same time, and it’s going to be a busy afternoon on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Obviously we have a tricky situation at the moment with a lot of teams involved in Europe, and we also had four fixtures on Thursday night in the Premier League. A lot of sides playing today also played on Thursday night, and we start the day with two of those as Chelsea host Newcastle. The turnaround in form from Newcastle has been incredible since the January transfer window, but this will be their biggest test by far this year. I’m sure Newcastle will attack this fixture with confidence and we should have a very good game here to be honest. Chelsea have a lot going on off the field at the moment and they will obviously face a lot of questions in the media. They have lost their sponsor this week, and I have to say their manager is handling the situation superbly. The big question is though, can they hold onto him during the summer? Can they hold onto their players? The future is very uncertain.
The market is expecting a comfortable Chelsea win here and to be fair to the players they have been fantastic on the pitch since the club was in the news for all the wrong reasons. They have had an easy fixture list since losing the Carabao Cup Final however, only having to play Luton Town, Burnley and Norwich. We all know that Newcastle aren’t close to the level of Chelsea, but this might just be more of a test than they have been put under over the last two weeks. I’m very interested to see how Newcastle get on here too because obviously their good run has come against mid-to-low table sides. I think Chelsea will win, but the 1.34 does feel a little short and I think we’ll see bigger odds at some stage in-running. Newcastle have been creating plenty of chances recently and I can see a very end-to-end and enjoyable game of football here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.77 and that is a nice bet to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChenew
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against Newcastle (L2), including the last three in a row. They last won more consecutively against the Magpies in the league between April 1957 and September 1958 (6).
● Newcastle have won just one of their last 27 away league games against Chelsea (D7 L19), winning 2-0 in May 2012 under Alan Pardew.
● Chelsea have won each of their last eight Premier League home games against Newcastle. The Blues have only had four longer winning home runs against an opponent in their league history, most recently a run of nine against Bolton between 1976 and 2003.
● Newcastle have lost 23 of their last 24 Premier League away games against sides starting the day in the top three of the table, with the exception being a 4-2 victory at Leicester City in May 2021.
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 34 Premier League home games played in March (W29 D5), since a 4-2 loss against Sunderland in 2001. Only in August (38 between 1993 and 2015) have the Blues had a longer unbeaten run in the competition at Stamford Bridge in a specific month.
● No team has lost more Premier League away games in London than Newcastle United (82). However, the Magpies won on their last visit to the capital 2-0 at Brentford, last winning consecutive trips to London within a top-flight season back in 2013-14 (three in a row against Tottenham, Crystal Palace and West Ham).
● Chelsea are unbeaten in all seven of their Premier League games played on Sundays this season (W4 D3), having lost three of their seven such games last season (W2 D2).
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home games (W4 D5), since a 1-0 loss against Manchester City in September. However, the Blues have kept just two clean sheets in this nine game run (22%), having kept a shutout in nine of their first 13 home league games under Thomas Tuchel (69%).
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has won three of his five Premier League away games against Chelsea (L2). Of all visiting managers to have taken charge of at least three Premier League games at Stamford Bridge, Howe has the best win rate (60%).
● No Chelsea player has scored more goals at Stamford Bridge in all competitions this season than Kai Havertz (5). However, just one of the German’s five home goals this term has come in the Premier League, during a 1-1 draw with Burnley in November.
EVERTON V WOLVES
2pm This is a fascinating game. I have to say this is probably the standout game for me today from a betting view of view. I was really surprised to see Everton trading as short as 2.38 when I clicked into the market, and I just can’t have them trading that price. They have been terrible this season and make no mistake about it, they are in a relegation battle. Obviously Leeds and Burnley are more likely to go down, but the term “too good to go down” is wearing thinner and thinner each week for Everton. We haven’t seen a noticeable bump in form since Frank Lampard came in either which is a very bad sign – you could have said the players just weren’t giving 100% under Rafa Benitez but that doesn’t seem to be the case. They are just very limited, and there’s huge issues at the back. They didn’t play too badly here in their last Premier League home game to only lose 1-0 to Man City, but they were terrible on Monday night away to Spurs when losing 5-0. When you look at the table now their 3-0 win here over Leeds was absolutely massive, and although they do seem more comfortable at home compared to away, I still feel they are far too short here at the odds.
Wolves absolutely bossed Watford on Thursday, and while this will be a tougher test I still feel they will make the game a lot closer than odds of 2.38 suggest on Everton. If you wanted my main worry, it would be that Wolves have only scored on average one goal per Premier League game this season. They don’t do anything flashy and hammer teams, apart from that performance on Thursday, but they will have to work hard. The reason why I think they’ll have success here if Everton have been so limited at the back they will give them plenty of chances. Add that to the fact that Wolves are conceding on average less than one goal per game in the Premier League this season and I really struggle to see why Everton are this short. I feel the odds are so wrong here it justifies a Max Lay at 2.38.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Everton to beat Wolves at 2.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEvewol
MATCH STATS
● Everton have lost just one of their last 10 home league games against Wolves (W6 D3), going down 3-1 in February 2019 under Marco Silva.
● Following their 2-1 victory at Molineux in November, Wolves are looking to complete the league double over Everton for the first time since 1972-73.
● Since the start of 2021, when Everton lost 2-1 at home to West Ham, no team has lost more Premier League home games than the Toffees (13).
● Wolves have lost their last two Premier League away games, as many defeats as they’d suffered in their previous 11 league games on the road (W7 D2).
● Only Tottenham Hotspur (98) have lost more Premier League games on Sundays than Everton (94), while of the eight teams to have played at least 200 Sunday games in the competition, the Toffees have the lowest win rate on this day (34% – 79 wins from 230 games).
● Everton have lost their last three Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 8-0. They last had a longer run of consecutive league defeats without scoring a single goal between August and October 2005 (6).
● Each of Wolves’ last three Premier League away goals have come within the opening 20 minutes of the game; just two of their previous 11 goals on the road in the competition had even come before half-time.
● Collectively, Everton’s players have made eight errors leading to a goal in the Premier League this season, more than any other side in the competition this term. Since the 2007-08 season (when we have this data available), only in 2014-15 (15) and 2015-16 (10) have the Toffees made more such errors.
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has scored in all five of his Premier League appearances against Everton, netting five goals in total. In the competition’s history, only Mohamed Salah has a better 100% record of scoring against an opponent (6/6 against Bournemouth).
● Everton’s Alex Iwobi has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games against Wolves. The Nigerian has netted more against Wolves than he has any other opponent in the competition (3), accounting for 21% of his 14 total strikes in the Premier League.
LEEDS V NORWICH
2pm There’s must win games, and then there is this one for Leeds! Playing Norwich with home advantage, this is an absolutely must win game for Leeds. A draw won’t be good enough when you look at the table and their fixture list to come. They still have to play Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal plus the games against Wolves, Southampton, Brighton and Brentford won’t be easy. They basically have to beat Norwich and Watford, and hope to pick up some points in the other games. Although Everton are one point behind them, they have three games in hand and Burnley also have two games hand as they sit two points behind. Given the games in hand that Everton have, you’d have to say that the 18th spot will come down to between Leeds and Burnley. Brentford have played the same amount of games as Leeds, but they sat four points ahead of Leeds after beating Norwich last weekend. Norwich have been very poor this season and sit nailed to the bottom of the table again after briefly getting out of the danger zone.
Both sides come into this game on a long losing run, so while it’s easy to look at this fixture and say Leeds are the better side, it’s hard to commit to backing them as short as 1.63. I couldn’t argue that they should be shorter, but given how poor Norwich have been I don’t want to lay Leeds either – I feel the price is fair value to be honest. Both sides have so many issues at the back here it’s hard not to see plenty of goals. Norwich have nothing to play for at this stage of the season, and there’s no reason why they won’t attack teams and go into games with open tactics. Leeds always play an open game and give away a host of chances, so over 2.5 goals stands out as the best bet here at 1.72. Both sides have had plenty of goals in their recent games – even in the Leeds 1-0 loss to Leicester we could have easily saw over 2.5 goals that day and this should be no different.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeenor
MATCH STATS
● Leeds are looking to complete the league double over Norwich for the first time since 1980-81, following their 2-1 win at Carrow Road earlier this season.
● Norwich won their last away league game against Leeds, 3-1 in February 2019 in the Championship. They’ve never won consecutive league visits to Elland Road before.
● This is the first time Leeds are hosting Norwich in a Premier League match since May 1995 – the Whites won 2-1, with Carlton Palmer’s 90th minute winner condemning the Canaries to relegation.
● Norwich have won six of their last nine league games in Yorkshire (D2 L1), as many as they had in their previous 32 visits to the county (D9 L17). However, their only defeat in this current run was in their only Premier League match in that time (0-1 vs Sheffield United).
● Since their return to the top-flight last season, Leeds have won six of their seven Premier League games against promoted sides, with the exception being a 2-2 draw with Brentford in December. Their last such defeat came against Portsmouth in April 2004 (1-2).
● After winning six points from their first three away Premier League games in March in 1993 (W2 L1), Norwich have taken just five points from their last 57 available on the road in this month in the competition (W1 D2 L16).
● Norwich have won just 14% of their Premier League games played on a Sunday (6/42), the lowest win rate of any of the 29 sides to have played at least 40 games on this day in the competition.
● Leeds lost their last Premier League game against a side in the relegation zone (1-0 at home to Newcastle in January), ending a run of 12 such games without defeat for the Whites (W10 D2). They last lost consecutive top-flight games against sides in the bottom three in December 2003.
● Norwich have scored fewer away goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (7). However, they’ve netted four in their last three Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 17 on the road in the competition.
● Patrick Bamford has been involved in seven goals in five Premier League appearances against promoted sides for Leeds, scoring four and assisting three.
SOUTHAMPTON V WATFORD
2pm This game might get a little lost today given how important the other games kicking off at this time are, but Southampton look good value to win. Southampton will say they were unlucky on Thursday to lose to Newcastle, but I suppose Newcastle have some excellent momentum at the moment and things are just going their way. This is an excellent opportunity to get back to winning ways for the Saints against this very average Watford side. They found themselves 3-0 down after just 21 minutes on Thursday against Wolves, and although they start this weekend within touch of Leeds, Everton and Burnley they have played more games which basically means they have very little chance of staying up. I know they can still stay up if everything goes their way, but it’s very unlikely and morale must be pretty low given their recent run. They were a little unlucky to lose 3-2 to Arsenal, but they were very lucky to draw 0-0 with Manchester United so they can’t really complain about their current run.
Southampton have been rock solid at home this season, and they have put the average sides to the sword here recently too. They recorded comfortable wins against Norwich and Everton here before knocking West Ham out of the FA Cup. Despite the loss to Newcastle on Thursday, they still created an xG of 2.05 and played pretty well. Considering Newcastle are in much better form than Watford at the moment, this should be a pretty smooth home win. I’m not going to get carried away with the staking but the 1.66 is very much worth backing. Leeds and Arsenal are trading around the same odds today, and I have to say Southampton are the best option in my opinion from the three. As I said, they are rock solid at home and playing good football at the moment – given the amount of goals Watford are conceding Southampton should get plenty of chances here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Southampton to beat Watford at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSouwat
MATCH STATS
● Southampton are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games against Watford, winning each of the last three in a row (D3). Indeed, Saints have lost just two of their 13 meetings with the Hornets overall in the competition (W6 D5).
● Watford have won just one of their last nine away games against Southampton in the top-flight (D2 L6), winning 2-0 in September 2017.
● The average time of the first goal in Premier League meetings between Southampton and Watford is the 16th minute, with the earliest goal in the competition’s history being scored in this fixture (Shane Long, 8 seconds in April 2019). Of all fixtures to have seen at least 30 goals scored in the Premier League, only Manchester United vs Sheffield United has an earlier average first goal (11 minutes).
● Southampton have lost just three of their last 39 Premier League home games against promoted clubs (W26 D10), with those losses coming against Cardiff in April 2014, Cardiff in February 2019 and Leeds in May 2021.
● On the five days of the week on which they’ve played at least 15 Premier League games, Southampton’s highest win rate in the competition is on Sundays (33.3% – 42 wins from 126 games). However, only on Mondays (52%) do Saints have a higher loss rate in the competition than they do on Sunday (41.3%).
● Watford have lost each of their last seven Premier League games on a Sunday, including all four such games this season. In Premier League history, only three sides have ever lost eight consecutive Sunday games – Birmingham City (2005-2007), Bournemouth (2015-2016) and Fulham (2018-2020).
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored four goals in his last five Premier League starts against Watford. Against no side has he scored more goals in the competition than his four against the Hornets.
● Watford manager Roy Hodgson has won just three of his 11 Premier League meetings with Southampton (D2 L6). Of all sides he’s faced at least 10 times in the competition, he’s only won fewer against Tottenham (W1 D6 L12).
● Southampton’s Che Adams has scored in five of his last six Premier League games against promoted sides, netting in all four such appearances this season. The only Southampton player to score in five consecutive Premier League games against promoted sides is Matt Le Tissier, who did so between December 1993 and October 1994.
● Watford keeper Ben Foster concedes a goal on average every 84 minutes in the Premier League against Southampton. Of all teams he’s faced at least 10 times in the competition, only against Aston Villa, Burnley and Sunderland (all 1 in 90) does he have better such rate.
WEST HAM V ASTON VILLA
2pm We finish the 2pm games with West Ham host Aston Villa. West Ham didn’t play too badly on Thursday night in the Europa League away to Sevilla – they lost 1-0 but are very much still in the tie given they have home advantage in the second leg. They were always going to be up against it given the draw but they have given themselves a chance at least. They have lost three games in a row now though, and only have one win from their last six in all competitions. That has been a bad run at the worst time given the race for the European spots, plus they’ve been knocked out of the FA Cup too. If next week goes badly against Sevilla their season could be close to over within a few weeks. However, although they sit out of the European spots at the moment there will be “extra” spots this season given Liverpool won the League Cup and it’s likely that one of the Top Three will win the FA Cup too which offers another spot, meaning 7th will likely get into Europe. West Ham will very likely take that 7th spot given the games in hand that Spurs have, and you could forgive the Hammers for focusing on the Europa League tie for the moment anyway.
That means Aston Villa could easily slip in another win here if West Ham have one eye on the Sevilla game next week, and that would put four wins together if they could do it. They benefited from a very poor Leeds performance on Thursday, although they did play very well in a 4-0 win against Southampton last weekend. When you look through the xG figures, you can see West Ham haven’t been playing their best football lately, and this might be an ideal time to get them on. Aston Villa also come in with confidence given their good run recently, and there’s a lot going in their favour here. I know we have a very open market, but I would have the market even more open! West Ham look a little short at 2.46 and I would have the sides closer together in the betting. To have the Villa win and the draw on our side is a nice position to be, and I’m happy with the West Ham lay at 2.46.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Aston Villa at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWhuast
MATCH STATS
● West Ham have won each of their last three league games against Aston Villa, their longest winning run against them since a run of six between 1964 and 1967.
● Aston Villa are winless in their last six Premier League away games against West Ham (D3 L3), failing to score on four occasions in that run since a 2-1 victory in April 2011.
● The last five league matches between West Ham and Aston Villa have seen West Ham score, in this order: no goals, once, twice, three times and four times. Should West Ham score exactly five goals in this match, it will be the first time in English league history that a side has progressed from no goals to five goals in a specific fixture while adding one more goal in each match.
● Aston Villa have won just 21% of their Premier League games in London (W31 D46 L74). Of the 12 teams to have played at least 100 away games in the capital in the competition, only Southampton (20%) have a lower win rate than the Villans.
● West Ham have alternated between not winning (D2 L2) and winning (W4) in their last eight Premier League home games, beating Wolves 1-0 last time out at the London Stadium. They last won back-to-back home league games in October/November, which were also their only two victories in games immediately following a European match this term.
● Aston Villa have lost five of their six Sunday matches in the Premier League this season, with the exception being a 2-1 home win against Leicester in December. The Villans have lost all three such matches away from home this term.
● West Ham are one of just two sides – along with Liverpool – to have scored in 100% of their Premier League home games this season. Overall, the Hammers have scored in their last 15 Premier League home games, last having a longer such run in the top-flight between October 1985 and January 1987 (27 games).
● On his only previous appearance at the London Stadium in the Premier League, Aston Villa’s Philippe Coutinho scored twice and assisted another in a 4-0 victory for Liverpool in May 2017.
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has failed to score in his last eight Premier League appearances, last having a longer such run between November 2019 and February 2020 (9 games).
● Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has faced West Ham more often than any other side without scoring in the Premier League (9 games). He’s also been on the losing side in eight of his nine appearances against the Hammers in the competition (D1).
ARSENAL V LEICESTER
4.30pm Although we have some very interesting games kicking off at 2pm, this is the highlight fixture of the day as Arsenal host Leicester. This should be a good game, as both sides arrive into it in good form. Arsenal have really benefited from Manchester United’s poor run recently, and now they are in pole position for that fourth spot. Finishing back in the Top Four would be an incredible achievement given they completely missed out on European football last season. I know their fans will always feel they are a big club and should be challenging for the title, but they basically turned into a mid-table side for a few seasons. Arteta has done a wonderful job to be honest, and although Arsenal are still unreliable they are better at collecting points than Manchester United and Spurs. Having Champions League football next season will be a big boost and something to build on given we don’t know what might happen to Chelsea going forward. This is a big game for Arsenal to keep their winning run going, especially with Manchester United and Spurs having had to play each other on Saturday.
Leicester have been very disappointing overall this season, but they have put together a decent run at the moment. They are putting sides to the sword in the Europa Conference League which must be a nice confidence boost – they are better than most sides and they must have a very good chance of winning. They didn’t played too good against Leeds last weekend though, and they were very lucky to win. However that’s the swings of luck in the Premier League as they didn’t deserve to lose against Wolves recently. I feel when you put everything together the 1.58 on Arsenal is the right price – it’s hard to argue that they should be shorter, and to be honest they should win given the levels of both sides this season. I can see a very open game here though and I think these two will gel together to produce a superb game. Both Teams To Score makes a lot of appeal at 1.77, along with over 2.5 goals at 1.68 but given that’s a little shorter, I’m happy to opt for Both Teams To Score in an enjoyable game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArslei
MATCH STATS
● Arsenal are looking to complete the league double over Leicester for the first time since 2015-16, following their 2-0 victory at the King Power Stadium earlier this season.
● Leicester won this exact fixture 1-0 last season, ending a 23-game winless run away at Arsenal in league competition. They’ve never won back-to-back away league games against the Gunners before.
● Only against Manchester United (65) have Leicester conceded more Premier League goals than they have against Arsenal (63). Four different Arsenal players have netted a hat-trick against the Foxes, with no team having more against an opponent in the competition (Dennis Bergkamp, Nicolas Anelka, Thierry Henry and Alexis Sánchez).
● Arsenal have taken 25 points from their last 30 available to them in the Premier League (W8 D1 L1). No side has earned more points over their last 10 Premier League games than the Gunners (level with Manchester City).
● Arsenal have won their last four Premier League games, each by a margin of just one goal. The last team to win five consecutive Premier League games all by a single goal were Birmingham City in November/December 2009.
● Leicester’s last two Premier League games have seen them beat Burnley 2-0 and Leeds United 1-0. The Foxes haven’t won three consecutive league games without conceding since a run of four in November 2019, the third game of which was a 2-0 victory against Arsenal.
● No side has kept fewer away clean sheets in the Premier League than Leicester City this season, though their solitary shutout on the road did come in their last such game (2-0 vs Burnley). However, Leicester have also only failed to score in one away Premier League game this term, with only Man Utd (0) failing in fewer.
● Bukayo Saka has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other Arsenal player this season (13 – 8 goals, 5 assists). Indeed, the young Englishman has registered nine goal involvements in his last 10 top-flight appearances (6 goals, 3 assists).
● Alexandre Lacazette has provided more assists than any other Arsenal player in the Premier League this season (7). His two assists at Watford last time out took him to 100 goal involvements in all competitions in his Arsenal career (70 goals, 30 assists in 196 games).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal, with only Wayne Rooney (12) netting more against the Gunners in the competition’s history. Vardy is also the joint-highest goalscorer in away Premier League games against Arsenal (5, level with Teddy Sheringham).
