DAQMAN PUTS ON ANOTHER SHOW: Daqman’s trio yesterday finished 311, including a double at Newcastle, with a winning nap and BETDAQ value at 6.5 taken about a 100-30 winner.
WON 11-8 GIAVELLOTTO (nap)
WON 10-3 SHOW MAKER (from 6.5 on BETDAQ)
HERE’S AN OUTSIDER FOR AINTREE: Daqman’s countdown to the Nationals finds a 41.0 outsider for Aintree today, as the clock ticks towards the final 40 for next week’s race. Meanwhile, the Scottish version at Ayr on Saturday has its full complement of 30, with one to spare. Look out for our horse-by-horse guide.
BOBBY LOOKS BIG AT 40-1
⭕ SCOTTISH NATIONAL
All aboard! All who want to run will run. Just 31 are declared for the Scottish Grand National, which is limited to 30 runners at Ayr on Saturday.
There are several with alternative targets, and a field of 25 is being forecast. There were 29 runners in 2018 after a full-house 30 the year before.
Last year’s winner, Mighty Thunder, and the class horse Bristol De Mai are both out. Of the ditherers, Fortescue is also engaged in the Aintree National but currently needs eight horses to come out if he is to get in there.
El Paso Wood, One More Fleurie, Nestor Park and Via Dolorosa could wait for the Topham Trophy (Aintree April 8); Go Another One and Hill Sixteen for the Aintree National but Hill Sixteen won’t get in; Go Another One might (he’s number 45 on the card; Hill Sixteen is 58).
History Of Fashion, Rightplacerightime, Stormy Judge and Streets Of Doyen are acceptors for Ayr but also engaged in the Irish National (Fairyhouse, April 18)
⭕ AINTREE NATIONAL
Ante-post. Good Boy Bobby looks far too big on BETDAQ for Aintree on Saturday week, and we take the 41.0 to win 100 points.
‘Bobby’ (number 20 on the card) and FORTUNE COOKIE Mount Ida (right up there on 11) are both guaranteed to get in.
But another FORTUNE COOKIE, Commodore needs nine defectors from the field to get into the line-up, which is why he is 50.0.
11 Mount Ida (8-11-4 Gordon Elliott) A FORTUNE COOKIE with Daqman bets already to win 100 points. Has two ways of running. Took the 2021 Kim Muir at Cheltenham, after all hope seemed lost at 999-1 on BETDAQ exchange.
She got left behind in the same race this year and made no progress. But BETDAQ Sportsbook 34.0>21.0.
20 Good Boy Bobby (9-10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies). The stable has won at Aintree with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002), and they know a National horse when they have one.
‘He’s gutsy, progressive and exciting.’ That was their verdict after ‘Bobby’ won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in December. Ante-post 2.5pts win BETDAQ Sportsbook 41.0
40 (runners limit) Now here’s where you have to hope that some come out in front you. Up to eight or nine for me, because I think Fortescue and Commodore the really unlucky ones if they are elminated.
For a real nerve-jangler, I shall stand tip-toes on the edge of the abyss and have the 33-1 Fortescue and 50-1 Commodore to small stakes just in case they get in. Both could halve in price if they do.
The cut-off point
41 Deise Aba (9-10-8 Harry Fry)
42 Blaklion (13-10-7 Dan Skelton)
43 Poker Party (10-10-7 Henry De Bromhead)
44 Death Duty (11-10-6 Gordon Elliott)
45 Go Another One (10-10-6) John McConnell
46 Domaine De L’Isle (9-10-6 Sean Curran)
47 Eclair Sur (8-10-5 Emma Lavelle)
48 Fortescue (8-10-5 Henry Daly) BETDAQ Sportsbook 34.0
49 Commodore (10-10-4 Venetia Williams) Another FORTUNE COOKIE. Wind ops since impressive in winning a 3m 2f Grade-3 chase at Cheltenham in December, jumping superbly. BETDAQ Sportsbook 50.0.
50 School Boy Hours (9-10-4 Noel Meade) Don’t bother to do your homework on this one, though you never know how many will drop out, if the ground is extreme (hard or heavy).
AMADORIO FOR WINNING UK START
⭕ 2.30 Uttoxeter Arizona Cardinal sets the form standard here but doesn’t really make much appeal at around even money on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE in early morning trading.
His only win to date came on heavy ground at Warwick (it’s forecast good today) and I think the penalty he receives from that win might make him vulnerable on quicker ground that he has yet to be fully proven on. On the positive front his trainer Stuart Edmunds is on a grand run of form with three winners from his last nine runners.
Second favourite is Prince Des Fichaux, ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies who is getting ever closer to his 500th career win.
Prince Des Fichaux chased home a 1/5 favourite on debut at Hereford in a four runner affair and my suspicion is that form is highly questionable.
Dancing With Deco is another penalised heavy ground winner who struggled next time out under the penalty and possibly for the change to faster ground too.
With so many doubts about the market leaders it might pay to support the Fergal O’Brien trained Amadorio for small stakes. He makes his UK debut for Fergal O’Brien but showed ability in his native France and for reasons stated above this is a weak contest.
NAP SENSE FOR TOUCHY FEELY
⭕ 5.20 Uttoxeter Touchy Feely was greener than the grass she was running on at Newbury on her debut but still had enough natural talent to finish second in a similar event – arguably her greenness costing her the race. She (and 6th placed Jasmiwa) are the first of the top six home to race again so it’s difficult to get a gauge on the form but in general terms Newbury bumpers tend to be well above average.
With normal improvement she should know plenty more about the game and being a racehorse today and is taken to account for the Alan King trained debutant Passing Reflection and Jasmiwa (again).
NAJEEBA FOR WINNING HANDICAP START
⭕ 7.00 Wolverhampton Najeeba has improved on each of her two starts since finishing down the field on debut at Kempton. She was a winner at Newcastle back in October in a race where both the second and third have won since.
Her starting handicap mark of 68 looks more than fair and she can halt the winning run of Red Flyer who is now on a career high mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 1.4pts win AMADORIO (2.30 Uttoxeter)
BET 9.1pts win (nap) TOUCHY FEELY (5.20 Uttoxeter)
BET 5.9pts win NAJEEBA (7.00 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
