PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with EVERTON v MANCHESTER UNITED.
EVERTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
12.30pm We have a massive weekend in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! I’m sure Manchester City v Liverpool will take all the headlines on Sunday, but we start the weekend with another massive talking game as Everton host Manchester United. We had a huge game on Wednesday night at the bottom of the Premier League between Burnley and Everton – Burnley came from 2-1 down at half-time to win 3-2 and pile the pressure on Everton. Burnley are only one point behind Everton now and both sides have played the same number of games. I think for the first time now, Everton going down has become a real possibility – before this week it was always a case of “they are too good to go down, they’ll pick up points somewhere.” They face a struggling Manchester United side here though, and you never know – this could indeed be the game where they pick up some much needed points. United have been in the news a lot this week as they search for their new manager, and some of the leaks coming out just highlight what a bad situation they have with the squad there.
We’ve seen leaks like “the players aren’t sure if Ten Hag is a good fit” which is remarkable. When you put that together with all the leaks when Rangnick came in too about moaning about the training times etc you can really see that United have a terrible squad at the moment. They really need a summer clear out. It’s not like they are getting Champions League football with this system, so why not just try something different? I would employ Ten Hag and whoever isn’t happy can leave, simple as that. Even allowing for the Everton woes, if you take all competitions both sides have only won once in their last six games. I do feel United should win here – Everton have been so poor this season – but you wouldn’t be rushing to back this United side at odds on. I think we’ll have a collection of errors here from both sides, and over 2.5 goals looks the smart play at 1.89. Everton have been so bad at the back all season it’s hard to see how they stop United, but United have given away a lot of sloppy goals too. I wouldn’t rule out another game with five or more goals involving Everton!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveMun
MATCH STATS
● Everton have won just one of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Manchester United (D6 L6), beating them 4-0 in April 2019 under Marco Silva.
● Manchester United won this exact fixture 3-1 last season – they’ve not won consecutive away league games against Everton since a run of three between August 2005 and September 2007.
● Manchester United have won 37 Premier League games against Everton – only the Red Devils themselves (38 vs Spurs) have beaten a single opponent more often in the competition’s history.
● Manchester United have scored at least once in each of their last 16 away games in the Premier League (29 goals in total), their longest run of away games without failing to score in the competition since November 2008 (18) – the 17th game in that run was also at Goodison Park, a 1-1 draw.
● Only the three promoted sides have lost more Premier League home games than Everton this season (7). However, the Toffees are looking for consecutive home league wins for the first time since September.
● Since beating Leeds United 5-1 on the opening weekend of the season, Manchester United are winless in their four Premier League games in the early Saturday kick-off slot (D2 L2).
● Since Ralf Rangnick’s first Premier League match in charge of Manchester United on December 5th, only Man City and Liverpool (one each) have lost fewer Premier League games than the Red Devils (2 in 16 games). By contrast, Man Utd lost seven of their final 16 league games under Ole Gunnar Solskjær.
● Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has been directly involved in six goals in his four Premier League appearances against Everton (4 goals, 2 assists), including four in two at Goodison Park (3 goals, 1 assist). The last Man Utd player to score in three consecutive away league games against Everton was Ruud van Nistelrooy (between December 2001 and February 2004).
● No Everton player has scored more home Premier League goals this season than Richarlison (3), though he’s not netted at Goodison Park in the league since December.
● Fred has been directly involved in six goals in 13 Premier League appearances under Ralf Rangnick for Man Utd, with only Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo (seven each) involved in more. He was only involved in five goals in his first 87 league appearances under Jose Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjær and Michael Carrick (3 goals, 2 assists).
ARSENAL V BRIGHTON
3pm We have three games kicking off at 3pm, and I have to say they are three fascinating games! We’re going to have some big opinions in the markets on these games, and they are very important games too. We start with Arsenal hosting Brighton, in what you have to say is a “must win” game for Arsenal to bounce back after losing 3-0 to Crystal Palace on Monday night. That result has thrown the Top Four race wide open again and now Arsenal find themselves starting the weekend sitting in fifth. They have the same amount of points as Spurs and a game in hand so they won’t be hitting the panic button yet, but we saw with Spurs a couple of weeks ago – games in hand are easy to say “three points coming” but it’s a lot more hard work in reality. You have to say we’re in for a treat this season, we have huge battles at the top of the table, for Top Four and for relegation! Brighton will be a tough test for Arsenal this afternoon, but they extended their run without a win last weekend with a 0-0 draw against Norwich. That was obviously very disappointing, but they didn’t play badly. When you look at the xG figures they finished the game with an xG of 2.86 and should have won 3-0 to be honest but you don’t win games if you don’t take their chances.
Although it’s been eleven games with only one win from Brighton, and no win in their last seven, they haven’t been playing too badly. However, as I said last weekend against Norwich – the question really is do you want to be backing a side on a run like that. I avoided them against Norwich last weekend, but to be fair they should have won. Brighton’s recent games have been tight affairs, and under 2.5 goals has collected in four of their last five games. I felt we’d see under 2.5 goals in Arsenal’s last game too, but they conceded three! I think we’ll have a pretty cagey game here, but I just don’t trust Arsenal enough to back under 2.5 goals – Brighton are an attacking side at heart and Arsenal will open the game up. On balance, I feel the value play is the draw at 4.0. I feel Arsenal are a little short at 1.7 and that offers a little value in the market – this is a fascinating game, in which Arsenal need to bounce back, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them come up short. The draw is worth a small bet.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 4.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBri
MATCH STATS
● After a five-game winless streak against Brighton in the Premier League, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last three against the Seagulls (W2 D1), keeping a clean sheet every time.
● The 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture was Brighton’s first clean sheet in 10 league games against Arsenal, since a 1-0 win in September 1982. They’ve never recorded consecutive shutouts against the Gunners before.
● Each of Arsenal’s last six home Premier League defeats have come against teams starting the day above them in the league – they’ve not lost any of their last 14 home Premier League games against sides below them (W10 D4) since a 1-0 defeat to Burnley in December 2020.
● Brighton have drawn nine of their last 13 away Premier League matches in London (W1 L3), recovering points from losing positions in five of those draws, including each of their last three 1-1 draws with Crystal Palace, West Ham United and Chelsea.
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 28 Premier League games at 3pm on a Saturday (W23 D4), with that defeat coming at Brighton in June 2020. At home, the Gunners are unbeaten in 29 such games since a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa in August 2013 (W24 D5).
● Arsenal have lost two of their last three Premier League games (W1), having lost just one of their previous 11 (W9 D1). The Gunners are looking to avoid losing consecutive league matches for the first time since December, following their 3-0 loss at Crystal Palace last time out.
● Brighton have converted just 6.7% of their shots in the Premier League this season (26 goals from 392 shots), their worst ratio in a single Premier League campaign. In their goalless draw with Norwich last time out they had 31 efforts at goal without scoring, the most by a side in a Premier League game since Crystal Palace against Cardiff City in December 2018 (also 31 shots in a 0-0 draw).
● Since joining the Premier League in 2017-18, Brighton and Hove Albion have drawn more games nil-nil than any other team (21). In Premier League history, the only side to draw a higher share of their games goalless than Brighton (21/182, 11.5%) are Coventry City (41/354, 11.6%).
● Brighton have never won a Premier League game in April in 15 attempts (D8 L7). Only Hull City (16 in May) have played more games in a specific month without ever winning in the competition’s history.
● Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette hasn’t scored from open play in any of his last 16 appearances in all competitions, since opening the scoring against Southampton in December. It’s currently 22 hours and 28 minutes without an open play goal for the Frenchman (two penalty goals).
SOUTHAMPTON V CHELSEA
3pm We have a fascinating market here as Chelsea travel to take on Southampton. It’s been a terrible week for Chelsea – they shipped four goals last weekend against Brentford at home and then lost 3-1 to Real Madrid midweek in the Champions League. Given the changes to the away goal rule, all is not lost for Chelsea but they have a mountain to climb. Tuchel said the tie was over in the press confidence afterwards, which is an unusual thing to do but I can’t see Chelsea coming back from that – not in Madrid. Given that second leg is next week it would be easy for them to take their eye off the ball for this game, and I would definitely avoid backing them at 2.02. The only question for me is whether or not to lay them at the odds, and I feel they are worth a lay. This is going to be a very difficult afternoon for Chelsea as Southampton have been rock solid at home this season. I know they lost to Watford and Newcastle here recently, but they didn’t deserve to and finished the game with a higher xG figure both times.
Chelsea will say that they were a little unlucky to lose midweek and point towards the xG figure – but Karim Benzema was just in superb form and he tore them apart. To be honest this seems a good time to take on Chelsea – I know they have a lot going on off the pitch at the moment and although the players and manager have dealt with all that very well, they have had a very easy fixture list since the League Cup Final. You’d have to say that Real Madrid was their first real major test and they came up well short. This is another tricky away tie and I’m happy to lay the 2.02. The signs have been there for a while that they have been playing excellent football – they haven’t been creating a huge amount of chances and grinding out games. Southampton will make them grind a lot here, and they could well come away with a win, but I fully expect a closer game than odds of 2.02 suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Southampton at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouChe
MATCH STATS
● Southampton have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Chelsea (D3 L8), winning 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in December 2019.
● Chelsea have lost just one of their 13 Premier League games at St Mary’s Stadium against Southampton (W9 D3) and are unbeaten in their last eight visits since a 2-1 loss in March 2013.
● Southampton have lost their last two home Premier League matches, as many as in their previous 18 at St Mary’s (W8 D8). The Saints last lost three in a row at home in January/February 2021.
● Chelsea suffered a 4-1 home defeat against Brentford in their last Premier League game but have never suffered consecutive league defeats under Thomas Tuchel, last doing so in December 2020 under Frank Lampard. Tuchel has managed the most Premier League matches without losing consecutive games in the history of the competition (48).
● Chelsea have scored first in their last seven Premier League matches, their longest run since September – November 2019 (also seven), scoring first in the second half in five of their last seven games. However, in their 4-1 defeat to Brentford they became the first team in Premier League history to score first in the second half and lose by a three-goal margin.
● Chelsea have scored more goals from outside the box than any other Premier League side this season (9), with Antonio Rüdiger the seventh Blues player to score such a goal last time out against Brentford.
● Chelsea’s Premier League games this season have seen more penalty goals than any other side (12), with the Blues scoring seven and conceding five spot-kicks. It’s the first time in Premier League history that Chelsea have both scored and conceded 5+ penalty goals in a single campaign.
● Southampton defender Valentino Livramento – who was twice an unused sub in the Premier League for Chelsea last season – is looking to become only the fourth Saints player to make 25 Premier League appearances in a season as a teenager, along with Matt Oakley (28 in 1996-97), Luke Shaw (25 in 2012-13 and 35 in 2013-14) and James Ward-Prowse (34 in 2013-14). No Chelsea player has ever played 25 times as a teenager in a Premier League season.
● Since Thomas Tuchel’s first such match in February 2021, only Manchester City (21) have won more away Premier League games than Chelsea (16 in 24 games). Only three managers have won as many as 16 of their first 25 away matches in the competition: Pep Guardiola (18), Antonio Conte (18) and José Mourinho (19).
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse scored his 13th direct free-kick goal in the Premier League in their 1-1 draw at Leeds last time out, with only David Beckham (18) scoring more in Premier League history. Ward-Prowse scored and was sent off in the reverse fixture against Chelsea in October, with Rickie Lambert the last Southampton player to score home and away against them in a single league season in 2012-13.
WATFORD V LEEDS
3pm We finish the 3pm games with another massive game another Watford host Leeds. This is a huge game in the relegation battle when you look at the bottom five. Watford would have enjoyed seeing Burnley beat Everton during the week because that definitely opens up the relegation race – a win for Everton would have saw them move away. Watford have played one more game than Everton, but they are only three points behind – goal difference is going to be a major issue for Watford but you have to feel that this is their chance now to get back into the mix to stay up – let’s see can they take it. That win for Burnley probably also drags Leeds back into the relegation mix when you look at games in hand. As we all know, it’s very easy to add the points up for games in hand, but actually getting them is another thing. Burnley would have to win both their games in hand just to match Leeds and that is very unlikely – you just wouldn’t class Leeds as safe yet. In that sense, this is a massive game for both sides.
A win would likely see Leeds in a great position to stay up, while a win for Watford would really open things up. Everton are under huge pressure at the start of the day! It’s no surprise that this is the most open market of the day with Leeds marginal favourites at 2.68. Although you’d think home advantage would indeed be an advantage and that Watford would be please this fixture arrives here, they have been terrible at home this season. They sit rock bottom of the home form table with just seven points from fourteen games. In my opinion this game comes at a great time for Leeds and they are very much worth backing at 2.68. They have put together three games unbeaten and they have created some good xG figures too. They finished with 3.0 v Norwich, 3.29 v Wolves and 1.66 v Southampton. They are playing nice football and now is a good time to back them – they can beat this average Watford side who have been woeful at home – I feel everything lines up for a Max Bet here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Leeds to beat Watford at 2.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WatLee
MATCH STATS
● Watford have won their last two home league games against Leeds, most recently a 4-1 victory in August 2014. The Hornets had only won one of their first eight against the Whites at Vicarage Road (D3 L4).
● Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Watford since the 1999-00 season, which was also the last campaign the sides met in the Premier League.
● Watford have lost their last eight home Premier League matches, with Wolves the last side to have a longer home losing streak, losing nine in a row between January and April 2012. The Hornets have only lost nine consecutive home league games once before, between December 1971 and March 1972.
● Since returning to the Premier League last season, Leeds United have picked up 22 points in their eight Premier League matches against promoted clubs (W7 D1), with their 2.75 points per game average the highest of any side in such matches in that time. They are also the only Premier League team not to lose a single game against a promoted side since the start of last season.
● Watford have lost 11 home Premier League games this season, the most of any side. It is only the third time they’ve lost 11 home league games in a season (also 1971-72 and 1987-88), while only three teams have survived Premier League relegation after losing 11 at home in a season: Hull City in 2008-09, Sunderland in 2013-14 and Crystal Palace in 2016-17.
● Leeds have taken seven points from their last three Premier League matches (W2 D1), as many as in their previous 13 games combined (W2 D1 L10). The Whites haven’t gone four games without defeat since winning their last four matches last season.
● Watford manager Roy Hodgson’s two home games against Leeds have produced a total of 12 goals; he beat them 4-1 with Crystal Palace last season and lost 4-3 with Blackburn in September 1997 – a game that saw all seven goals scored in the opening 33 minutes.
● Having been directly involved in 13 goals in his first 16 Premier League appearances (8 goals, 5 assists), Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis has scored just once (with no assists) in his last 12 in the competition.
● Kalvin Phillips made his first Leeds United appearance since December, as a substitute in their 1-1 draw with Southampton. In the Premier League this season, Leeds have conceded just 14 goals with Phillips on the pitch (one every 80 minutes) compared with 54 goals without him on the pitch (one every 36 minutes).
● Jack Harrison has scored six Premier League goals for Leeds in 2022, twice as many as any of his teammates have managed (Rodrigo and Daniel James, 3). He’s scored in his last two appearances and is looking to find the net in three in a row for the first time in the Premier League.
ASTON VILLA V TOTTENHAM
5.30pm We finish a brilliant Saturday with Aston Villa hosting Spurs. When at the stage of the season now where every game is a must win game for Spurs in the race for that fourth position. They will have the luxury of knowing what they need to do here after the Arsenal game kicking off at 3pm – it’s already been a brilliant week for Spurs though with that Arsenal loss to Crystal Palace, and it’s going to be a very close finish. Arsenal have some tough fixtures ahead too as they have to play Chelsea, Manchester United but the North London Derby might just settle the Top Four race in the middle of May. Spurs have a reasonably easy run-in apart from having to play Liverpool and on paper you’d say Spurs would be slight favourites, even though Arsenal have a game in hand – it’s going to be a fantastic race! Spurs will start this game odds against, but I feel that the 2.28 is a very good value price. I know backing Spurs at times should come with a wealth warning, so I am happy to limit stakes in that sense, but this Villa side look there for the taking.
Villa have been very up-and-down lately. They’ve gone on winless runs, put three wins together and put three losses together. They didn’t play too badly against Wolves last weekend, they actually created one of their highest xG figures of the season in the loss but they have come up short time and time again this season. They have benefited hugely for the boost of morale Steven Gerrard gave them when he came in, but in the cold light of day you wouldn’t say that he’s improved them massively. Their xG figures certainly didn’t change much, but he has given them a good spirit. I wouldn’t be surprised if they hung around the relegation race next season, but ultimately they are too good to go down. I know Spurs are a very unreliable side, but Conte will know how important this game is t take their chance after the Arsenal loss to Crystal Palace and I’m happy to have a small investment at 2.28.
The Striker Says:
One point win Tottenham to beat Aston Villa at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstTot
MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have won just two of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (D3 L15), both away from home in April 2015 and May 2021. Their last victory against them at Villa Park was in January 2008.
● Tottenham have won their last six Premier League away games against Aston Villa. Only against the Villans themselves have they had a longer winning away run in their league history (7 between 1950 and 1956).
● Aston Villa have lost their last three Premier League matches, losing each game by a one-goal margin. Indeed, the Villans have lost 12 matches by one goal this season, more than any other side.
● Tottenham Hotspur have scored 21 goals in their last six Premier League matches (W5 L1), scoring four or more goals in three of those games (4-0 vs Leeds, 5-0 vs Everton, 5-1 vs Newcastle). It’s the first time Spurs have scored 21 times in the space of six top-flight games since a run between April and September 1965.
● Aston Villa have won just four of their last 30 Premier League matches in April (D9 L17) and have lost nine of their last 11 games in the month (W1 D1) – their one win was a 3-1 home victory over Fulham last year.
● Spurs have scored 43 goals in their 20 Premier League matches under Antonio Conte (W12 D3 L5); in Premier League history, the only managers to see their teams score more goals in their first 20 games in charge at a club are Carlo Ancelotti at Chelsea in 2009 (45 goals) and Manuel Pellegrini at Manchester City in 2013-14 (57 goals).
● Steven Gerrard has lost nine of his 19 Premier League matches as Aston Villa manager (W7 D2), after only losing 11 of his 118 league matches as Rangers manager between 2018 and 2021. He has lost his last three Premier League games with Villa, only ending on the losing side in four in a row as a player once – a run of five in November and December 2002 at Liverpool.
● Harry Kane has scored in all three of his away Premier League appearances against Aston Villa for Spurs, scoring in 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2020-21. The only player to score in four consecutive away Premier League appearances against Villa is Romelu Lukaku (2013-2021).
● Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has scored in and lost eight Premier League matches since the start of last season, the most of any player. In Premier League history, only Gareth Barry (12) and Christian Benteke (9) have scored in and lost more Villa matches.
● Son Heung-Min has scored and assisted in 20 Premier League matches for Spurs – since his debut, only Mohamed Salah (23 games) has done so more often. He has been directly involved in 15 goals in his last 16 Premier League appearances (10 goals, 5 assists).
