BANK HOLIDAY OF BIG OUTSIDERS: Daqman’s stats on the Irish Grand National produce only five horses which tick all the boxes; all are outsiders. All in all, between Fairyhouse and Plumpton via Redcar and Kempton, Daqman has bets at 39.0, 28.0, 24.0, 21.0, 15.0, 8.2, 5.1 on Bank Holiday racing. Headlines:
ELLIOTT’S 10 IN NATIONAL
TIME TO GET UP AND BET
CHEERS! TRY JACK DANIEL
BE BOLD: BET BALLINSKER
TOMORROW: The season’s first Derby trial at Epsom.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Breaking news on Monday – Constitution Hill misses his date with Honseysuckle at Punchestown and will now take a holiday before next season according to trainer Nicky Henderson.
ELLIOTT’S 10 IN NATIONAL
How to ‘win’ a horse race. Put a stable squad in it and kill off the opposition’s speed with one of them, sent a furlong clear at full pelt.
Hors Piste at 20-1 did that yesterday as one of Willie Mullins’ EIGHT (all running on their merits, of course), and Willie won the mares’ novice-hurdle final at Fairyhouse with another animal from the yard that was hooded, called Brandy Love.
Aidan O’Brien did it in the 2019 Irish Derby when he ran five in an eight-horse race. There was stunned silence when his ‘pacemaker’, Sovereign, stayed in front and won it at 33-1. No matter; winner and beaten-favourite in second were both in the same ownership!
Sovereign never won another race and I wouldn’t back Brandy Love or Hors Piste in future with your money, unless I myself am hooded and can’t see what I am doing!
This American-style racing doesn’t work in the Grand National at Aintree so, when Gordon Elliott, ran SEVEN earlier this month, his front-runner, Coko Beach, couldn’t last the trip and nearest for the stable was Delta Work, third.
But I recall he had a squad of THIRTEEN (yes, 13) in the 2018 Irish Grand National. He won it with 20-1 shot General Principle, who has ‘raced’ 16 times since (placed once), sliding 23lb down the handicap and pulling up seven times, including in his last three races.
Today, Gordon has a mere TEN runners in the National, and I’m stuck with one of them, because another rule of racing says that, if you follow a horse, it wins as soon as you give up on it.
In fact, Gordon sounds bullish about Mount Ida today, as she is traveling her preferred way round again. BETDAQ 24.0.
I’ll also choose others from the stats below, which are extremely strong for this race. I’ll hope my stable of four can produce the winner, if I leave it to others to provide a madcap pacemaker!
TIME TO GET UP AND BET
⭕ 5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National) STATS award full marks to just five runners in today’s Irish National, based on these qualifications:
A WEIGHT: Carrying less than 11st (19-20)
B AGE: 18 out of 21 single-figure age; none aged 11 or more since 1997
C DISTANCE: Won chase over at least 3m (20 out of 21)
D COURSE: Raced at Fairyhouse before (14 out of 21)
ABCD FULL TIME SCORE (Henry De Bromhead – Rachael Blackmore) Lightly raced and unexposed, just come to himself. Has raced twice at Fairyhouse and won both; firstly, his maiden hurdle last Spring, then he went clear in a 3m chase the last day, with Smoking Gun third, staying on. All winning form is soft-heavy.
ABCD SCHOOL BOY HOURS (Noel Meade – Sean Flanagan) Placed here as a novice and in novice-chase final at Navan. Stepped up around 10lb to bag the big 3m Leopardstown chase over Christmas (good/yielding; led final strides). Worse off today with Enjoy D’Allen (kept on after the last). Unlucky in the Kim Muir, making headway when stumbled four out and eased. Pulled up early at Aintree when Minella Times landed on his back! BETDAQ 28.0.
ABCD SMOKING GUN (Gordon Elliott – Kevin Sexton) Bought for this National and tested early for it, winning 3m 5f Porterstown here on good ground in November. Again ran well on the course, narrow third, giving weight to the winner, Full Time Score (3m soft), before down the field in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham (soft), after showing up well for some way. BETDAQ 39.0.
ABCD TIME TO GET UP (Jonjo O’Neill – Robbie Power) Placed in last two runnings of Midlands Grand National: winner (2021 goodish ground) and third in March on soft, after third on heavy in the Haydock Park Grand National trial. Today’s ground suits ideally if there’s not too much rain. BETDAQ 15.0.
ABCD VELVET ELLIS (Thomas Gibney – Darragh O’Keeffe) Smooth winner, jumping well, of first handicap in novice-chase final at Navan (3m soft) in March, giving weight to nine of his 10 opponents. Trainer took this National race with 33-1 chance in 2012, after winning the Ten Up Novices’ Chase at Navan. Needs rain.
CHEERS! TRY JACK DANIEL
⭕ 3.24 Redcar CD-winner, a son of Equiano, Jack Daniel, unexposed after just two races in his life, is with a hot early-bird yard.
Declan Carroll’s current form is 1010103 and the stable is +44 points at level stakes on the Redcar course. BETDAQ 9.6
⭕ 3.30 Kempton (Rosebery Handicap) The one stall has won this 50% of the time (4-8) since 2013, and Belloccio is a hidden horse.
Dual winner in France as a 2yo, kept Group company all last year until gelded, and still could be anything.
Farhan is up in the weights for winning the November Handicap but the AW horse in the race is Boss Power (3-3 on a man-made surface), with Ryan Moore booked.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 8.2 Boss Power, 21.0 Belloccio
BE BOLD: BET BALLINSKER
⭕ 4.02 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Chase) A cracking quintet. Amy Murphy won it with Mercian Prince in 2019 but he looks a bit long in the tooth now against some progressive youngsters.
Annual Invictus hasn’t climbed any higher after his novice success over CD in November, back to back with a Cheltenham win.
Golden Boy Grey has been hiked a stone since then and goes for his first handicap today after beating a decent yardstick, Thyme White, at Ascot. Should get the longer trip, having won over 2m 3f over hurdles on heavy a year or so back.
The grey Rose Sea Has is an old hand at handicapping, but Ballinsker (BETDAQ 5.1) won over today’s trip in commanding fashion at Chepstow, jumping well and racing strongly all the way.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.24 Redcar (win 20, nap)
BET 2.5pts win JACK DANIEL
3.30 Kempton (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win BOSS POWER
BET 1pt win BELLOCCIO
3.50 Fairyhouse (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win each
WHISKEY SOUR, HEAVEN HELP US
4.02 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win BALLINSKER
5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National)
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win MOUNT IDA
WIN-50 BULLS’-EYE BETS
BET 3.25pts win TIME TO GET UP
BET 1.75pts win SCHOOL BOY HOURS
BET 1.25pts win SMOKING GUN
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
