SAMBURU LANDS ANOTHER DAQMAN NAP: It’s been a trappy few days but Daqman has emerged with a 22-1 winner and two winning naps out of four, with one of his favourite big meetings starting at Sandown tomorrow.
Wednesday
WON 5-6 SAMBURU (nap)
Monday
WON 22-1 BELLOCCIO
Sunday
WON 8-11 THIRTYFOURSTITCHES (nap)
WON 4-5 LIFE OF DREAMS
JUST A HANDFUL OF HOPE FOR THE GOLD: Daqman likes to look at big races in two ways: where the winner usually comes from in the stats, and what his own views are on the day. Today he finds that just a handful of horses tick all the boxes for Saturday’s Sandown Gold Cup.
FIVE STATS ACES FOR GOLD
⚠️ HEADS UP: 15 were declared this morning for Saturday’s Sandown Gold Cup, including three for handicap-king Christian Williams: Win My Wings, Kitty’s Light and Cap Du Nord.
⭕ 3.32 Sandown, Saturday (Sandown Gold Cup) STATS: In the 21 years this century, 16 winners were of single-figure age; 17 carried 11st or less. Chase winners over 3m-plus are 100% in the decade.
Only the following tick all the boxes for the 3m 5f stamina test (£90,000 to the winner):
🏇 CAP DU NORD (Christian Williams) Rated 135. Beaten only five lengths, fifth, in this race last year. Third in the old Great Yorkshire at Doncaster in January and won a Grade-3 chase at Kempton in February. Trainer can do no wrong in big staying handicaps this season, but has three runners.
🏇 DOMAINE DE L’ISLE (Sean Curran) Rated 140. Won a quality chase at Cheltenham last April (3m 2f good) and fourth in the Becher over the National fences in December (soft). Blundered 15th (Chair) in the Grand National two weeks back.
🏇 EL PASO WOOD (David Pipe) Rated 125. Four in a row in France when avoiding the usual heavy surfaces there. Joined David Pipe off 136 and won Somerset National (Wincanton; 3m 2.5f, good to soft) in January and fourth in the Midlands Grand National (Uttoxeter, 4m 2f, soft).
🏇 FLEGMATIK (Dan Skelton) Rated 139. Seven-year-old on a hat-trick after striking form at Kempton in February with back-to-back wins up to 3m (good; good to soft). Put by for this as ‘potentially an extreme stayer who jumps like one.’
🏇 MUSICAL SLAVE (Philip Hobbs). Rated 137 (7lb well in here). Kept good company without success last year. Improved for wind surgery (form since January: 3311). Beat a small field at Sandown then won the stayers’ final at Haydock last weekend (3m 1.5f, good to soft, cheekpieces); traveled and jumped well.
CORAJE BEST OF THE FILLIES
⭕ 1.20 Beverley I didn’t think there was as much between Primrose Ridge and Coraje as the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE betting suggests so, you’ve guessed it, I’m going with the biggest priced runner.
The market leader Primrose Ridge let her supporters down at odds of 1/2 last time out at Redcar when she found Star Of Lady M too good. She didn’t look the easiest of rides either, swerving leaving the start and she’s drawn widest of all today in box 14 which isn’t ideal.
In contrast Coraje made a pleasing debut at Kempton when third to Ocean Cloud who has won again since. She should improve plenty for that run and can land this for the George Boughey yard.
The danger to both could of course be a debutant. The early trades were positive for Mersea – who is one of three newcomers for owner Nick Bradley and if the market can be believed the better fancied of the trio.
BLUE LIGHTS FLASHING
⭕ 4.35 Chelmsford Open Mind is Saeed bin Suroor’s first British runner this year and he can start with a winner to continue the excellent recent form of the Godolphin runners from the other axis of Charlie Appleby.
Open Mind always looked as though he would be a better horse this season and the new model has been gelded and sports cheekpieces for the first time. His best effort in three starts as a two-year-old came at Sandown when third to La Pulga and the form of that race has worked out well since with the winner and fourth winning and the runner-up Percolate running well in the States with a second at Del Mar.
The debutant Zero Carbon has a good pedigree but the form of the Richard Hughes stable is a slight concern whilst Dashing Rat brings plenty of turf experience to the table on his all-weather debut.
EARLY DERBY DAY
⭕ 6.37 Chelmsford A couple of non runners makes life easier for Baileys Derbyday who may well have needed the run here two weeks ago after returning from a 306 day break. In the circumstances he ran really well to finish third to Koeman and was competitive right until inside the final furlong.
This looks easier and he can put his fitness edge to his advantage against his three rivals who are returning after breaks of 89, 100 and 212 days.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.0pts win CORAJE (1.20 Beverley)
BET 9.1pts win (nap) OPEN MIND (4.35 Chelmsford)
BET 8.3pts win BAILEYS DERBYDAY (6.37 Chelmsford)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
