CELEBRATION DAY FOR CHAMPIONS: On the last day of the Jumps season, Daqman is expecting a Celebration double as Paul Nicholls is crowned champion trainer. Daqman has already declared in the match with Pricewise with the score 43-26 for the Jumps, so today’s Gold Cup bets count in their Flat challenge.
DAQMAN LAYS A GODOLPHIN LOSER: Daqman maintained his daily scoring yesterday, not with a winner but in daring to oppose a Godolphin favourite, Blue Trail (Lays Logic 3rd 16-5). The ‘boys in blue’ also suffered a setback when Goldspur, an even hotter favourite, was only third in the Sandown Classic Trial.
*Next week: Daqman’s countdown to the 2,000 Guineas.
Headlines:
ENRILO FOR GOLD REVENGE
THE WHIZZ IS BACK IN KID
NICHOLLS CELEBRATION DAY
KEEPING THE LAYERS AT BAY
ENRILO FOR GOLD REVENGE
⭕ 3.32 Sandown (Sandown Gold Cup) STATS: Age and weight: see Thursday Daqman in the Archive. Going good; good to soft in places (watered); possible showers; 3m 5f.
The two top trainers in this, Paul Nicholls (4) and Alan King (2) were first and second past the post last year on similar good ground with Enrilo (disqualified) and Potterman beating Christian Williams’ Kitty’s Light.
Since then Williams has been bagging the big handicaps, including with Cap Du Nord (Kempton Trophy) and Win My Wings (Scottish Grand National), with Kitty’s Light second in both. He runs all three today but all look a bit used up.
It would be a remarkable feat for ‘Wings’ to win the Eider and Scottish National, then this one, under a total rise of 22lb, and Kitty’s Light is up 10lb on last year’s race without winning; second five times and cheekpieces fitted today.
Cap Du Nord is the one who is now in the right place in the handicap and Sam Twiston-Davies takes over, but he’s also had four races this year.
When Domaine De Lisle won a quality chase at Cheltenham last April (3m 2f good), it was under Brian Hughes for the only time in the last two years. He would have a chance if he’s over his exertions in two races over the Grand National fences.
There are similar doubts about Musical Slave’s exertions. It’s only a week since he won the stayers’ final at Haydock. And I’m looking for horses fresh to the fray.
1: ENRILO Saved up for this with just one appearance in 2022, he will be looking to avenge last year’s disqualification. ‘He’s ready to run for his life,’ says Paul Nicholls.
2: HEWICK ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s good-ground chaser won over today’s trip in the Durham National in October. Only one run since, when deep ground was against him in the Midlands Grand National (4m 2f)in March.
Nevertheless he led for 20 fences until his race fell apart (hampered by a loose horse; blundered; and pulled up).
Clearly suited by today’s trip and ground and could play catch-me, giving you an exciting back–and-lay run.
3: FLEGMATIK Protektorat is the only top-grade winner this season for Dan Skelton, but the stable has still gleaned £2m and third place in the trainers’ table, with Harry third in the jockey’s list.
Flegmatik’s being saved for this is a big test of Dan’s horse sense, in that the improving seven-year-old doesn’t have the public form for this but the trainer reckons his jumping suggests he is a stayer in embryo.
It bears comparison with confidence in his own judgment by Ben Pauling to win the Highland National at Perth yesterday with Slipway, another seven-year-old, also untried at the trip.
Flegmatik wants genuinely good going but not ‘too lively’ so, if Harry Skelton finds out on Knappers Hill in the first that the going is not what they want, Flegmatik might not run. But this morning, the ground staff were claiming ‘good; good to soft in places.’
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 6.1 Enrilo, 11.5 Flegmatik, 17 Hewick
THE WHIZZ IS BACK IN KID
⭕ 1.50 Sandown (Novices Hurdle Championship Final) Whizz Kid (BETDAQ 7.0 this morning) stepped up from back-to-back novice wins to run a close fourth for the conditionals title at the Aintree Grand National meeting, his effort spoiled by lack of fluency. He’s well treated and will have had some corrective schooling.
Doctor Parnassus (also 7.8) tried to cross an even bigger gap, after his double at juvenile and novice level. He was sent to tackle Vauban and company in the Grade-1 Triumph Hurdle and ran as well as could be expected.
⭕ 2.05 Haydock A southern raider with a low draw is the gist of the stats for this. Usually you would add ‘must be able to win over this specialist distance of 7f’: but 10 of them already have!
Oo De Lally, out of last year’s winning stall, has won five times over 7f. He won first time out last year, and has been gelded and had wind surgery.
BETDAQ value 12.0 Oo De Lally
NICHOLLS CELEBRATION DAY
⭕ 3.00 Sandown (Celebration Chase) As he has done with Flegmatik, Dan Skelton has swerved the big meets at Cheltenham and Aintree with Nube Negra, for this final-flourish end-of-term celebration.
You could see him winning this on his six-lengths defeat of Politologue at Cheltenham in November when the horse (at 20-1) who stopped Altior (even money) in the Desert Orchid Chase the year before seemed to go top of the podium as a potential champion two–miler chaser.
But within three weeks Nube Negra had himself been belittled by Politologue’s stablemate, Greaneteen, in the Tingle Creek here at Sandown.
Greaneteen then hated the soft ground when taking on Shishkin at Christmas, but is so good on a sound surface that he, too, had slammed Altior in today’s chase at Sandown a year ago today.
Today’s celebrations belong with champion trainer Paul Nicholls and Greaneteen in the perfect setting of Sandown on goodish ground again today. ‘He’s been trained for the race all year.’
KEEPING THE LAYERS AT BAY
⭕ 4.56 Leicester With the Clive Cox team bursting into form (3-7), it could be an evening to applaud his Lambourn yard, starting with one which was an overnight punt. The hood should help Applaud Now to settle. BETDAQ 7.1.
⭕ 6.05 Doncaster From the same stable, Spirit Of The Bay can continue her sequence as a 20lb improver with four wins last summer and into the autumn on all types of ground.
Kept on well on her return at Kempton last month, and a bit better than evens in the BETDAQ win market.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Sandown (win 12)
BET 1,75pts win DOCTOR PARNASSUS
BET 2pts win WHIZZ KID
2.05 Haydock (win 12)
BET 1pt win OO DE LALLY
3.00 Sandown (win 10)
BET 6pts win GREANETEEN
3.32 Sandown (win 50 each)
BULL’S-BET 10pts win ENRILO
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win FLEGMATIK
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win HEWICK
4.56 Leicester (win 12)
BET 2pts win APPLAUD NOW
6.05 Doncaster (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win SPIRIT OF THE BAY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
