SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top games including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V RB LEIPZIG
7pm We continue the final domestic weekend of the season in Europe on Saturday, and we have some cracking action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today! In terms of drama, we don’t have any huge games in the domestic leagues, but we do have Juventus and PSG in action in Italy and France. We start with the biggest game of the day however as Freiburg meet RB Leipzig in the Final of the German Cup. The Bundesliga finished last weekend, with RB Leipzig securing Champions League football in fourth and Freiburg missing out of fifth with a final day loss against Bayer Leverkusen, but they still get a Europa League spot in sixth regardless of the result here. In the end there was only three points between the sides in the table, and Freiburg could have easily finished a lot closer given they lost their final two games. After finishing in 10th in 2020/21, 8th in 2019/20 and 13th in 2018/19 this season has been a huge success for Freiburg. They started the season very well, and beating Dortmund in their second game must have given them a huge confidence boost. When they had home advantage they held RB Leipzig to a 1-1 draw in a very even game, and then when RB Leipzig had home advantage they also managed a 1-1 draw in another very even game.
Although the Bundesliga is a very open league with plenty of goals each week, I feel we’ll have a very cagey Cup Final here. When the sides met in the Bundesliga we had two pretty cagey games – when RB Leipzig had home advantage the xG finished 0.67 to 0.41 in a game without any major clear cut chances. As you would expect RB Leipzig are favourites, but they aren’t odds on. Indeed, it’s hard to make the case that they should be odds on here and I feel the 2.06 is still on the short side. Freiburg have been fantastic this season, and they have obviously had success against RB Leipzig. It is tempting to lay Leipzig at 2.06 but I feel under 2.5 goals really stands out at 1.92. RB Leipzig have been very solid at the back this season, they have only conceded an xG of 1.3 on average in the Bundesliga this season and Freiburg aren’t too far away from that at 1.4. I know there’s a lot of attacking talent on the pitch, and I’m happy to not go overboard with the staking in that sense, but nothing I’ve seen from the Bundesliga clashes puts me off unders here, and I feel we’ll have a very cagey Cup Final.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreRbl
FIORENTINA V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We go to Serie A next as Fiorentina host Juventus. All the action in Serie A will be tomorrow with AC Milan and Inter Milan both chasing the title, but this is a nice fixture to sit back and enjoy on a Saturday evening. We landed a nice lay on Juventus on Monday against Lazio and it will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from them here too. As I said in my preview of that game, it isn’t the first time that they have eased off once their job has been done. The last time they won Serie A early they lost three of their last four games. They can’t be caught in the top four race, and they come into this game with a loss and a draw from their last two games. Once again I would be very worried about them from a motivation point of view and it’s no surprise at all to see Fiorentina as favourites here given the last two performances from Juventus. However, serious consideration must be given to Fiorentina price here. In my opinion the 2.04 feels way too short for a side who have lost four of their last five games. They had a huge chance to take the advantage in the race for the fifth spot but fluffed their lines on Monday when losing 4-1 to Sampdoria. They were a little unlucky looking at the xG figures, but over all they have just been giving away too many sloppy goals at the moment. Obviously the win over Roma was massive because it kept them in the fight for fifth, but to be honest there should even be a fight – Fiorentina should be home and dry.
Perhaps the key to the Sampdoria loss was that it came away from home – Fiorentina have been a completely different side at home this season compared to away. At home they are sitting third in the table with actually one more point than Juventus. The away form table is a different story as they sit in the bottom half. As I said above, it’s no surprise to see Fiorentina as the favourites I just wasn’t expecting them to be this short. I couldn’t put anyone off the Fiorentina lay, however the motivation levels of Juventus has to be a major worry and don’t forget they lost the Coppa Italia in between the Genoa and Lazio game – they drew in 90 minutes but lost in extra time. I feel the best option here is to look past the match odds market and focus on the goals market. Juventus have seen a lot of goals in their recent games and I can’t see why they would sit back here – this is a meaningless game for them after all. It’s in Fiorentina’s interests to keep the game tight but they have been conceding a host of chances recently. Over 2.5 goals looks the value call here at 1.7.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioJuv
PSG V METZ
8pm We move over to France to finish the action on Saturday as we have the final day of Ligue 1! PSG won the title long ago, but they do finish the season with more questions than answers. They exited the Champions League early in dramatic fashion, crumbling under pressure away to Real Madrid after getting themselves into a very strong position. It seems like you can change the personal, but PSG still don’t cope with the Champions League pressure. We saw the same happen with Manchester City though – it takes a lot to win your first Champions League I suppose. Mauricio Pochettino has hit out at domestic criticism of “not winning easily enough” which is really the only criticism PSG can get when they are 15 points clear going into the final day. The reality is there isn’t a team even close to the level of PSG domestically, and they will always be judged on their performance in the Champions League. The problem with that is when they come under pressure in those intense moments, they almost aren’t used to it because they never experience them domestically. Not only that, but it looks like PSG could get even stronger in the summer transfer window. They could end up signing Paul Pogba and Cristiano Ronaldo could end up in Paris at some stage too. Not many other clubs would take him given his age, and the money on offer would be too big to turn down for him. It will be interesting to see what the plans are with Ronaldo when Erik Ten Hag takes charge at Manchester United.
One wonders if PSG even needs more stars. They are a side of stars, not a team. In my opinion they haven’t been that impressive this season despite the fact they have won the league so easily. At times their performances have been disjointed, they are missing some hard workers, and they seem like a side of individuals – which is largely true. Messi looks to be going through the motions here, and he has had a very poor season. All that being said, they should win here but this is a huge game for Metz. For PSG they will just want to finish the season with a with a win in front of their own fans but Mets are fighting for their lives. They currently sit in the relegation playoff spot, but St-Etienne have the same number of points as them sitting in the bottom two. St-Etienne are away to Nantes today, but they have a better chance of picking up points than Metz here! The market can’t see past a PSG win here with the home side trading as short as 1.19. PSG have drawn three of their last four, while Metz are finishing the season strongly unbeaten in three. I don’t see this being as easy as the market expects for PSG, and I like a small bet on Metz +2.5 goals at 1.73. I wouldn’t be surprised to actually see them get a result, but let’s be honest there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Metz +2.5 goals to beat PSG at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgMet
