SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top end of season games including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V SAMPDORIA
5pm What a treat we have in store on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this Sunday. It’s the final day of Serie A and La Liga, and we have some blockbuster fixtures to enjoy. We start the action in Serie A with Inter Milan and AC Milan still battling for the title. I have to say it’s been an incredibly dramatic title race in Italy this season – by far the best around Europe. I know the Premier League was close too, but Manchester City were always edging Liverpool – Inter actually had the chance to go past AC Milan with a game in hand but they blew it. The goalkeeper made an error he will never forget in that game. As you can imagine, both fixtures kick off at the same time and we start the action with Inter Milan hosting Sampdoria. The market can’t see past an easy home win here, with Inter trading as short as 1.15 at the time of writing. That is very much a “need to win” price, but Sampdoria have nothing to play for here and they have been bang average this season too. They have been hanging around the relegation battle but wins in two of their last three games have pushed them away from danger. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here, and it would be a surprise to see anything other than an Inter win.
With the lead only two points at the top of Serie A, goal difference can easily come into things. AC Milan are away to Sassuolo which is obviously a tougher fixture than this one. The goal difference works in Inter Milan’s favour too, so a draw for AC Milan would see Inter lift the title again. Although Inter don’t have to bang in the goals here, they just have to win, I can see them scoring a few here. They have been creating chances for fun recently and scoring plenty. Their recent xG figures have been 2.34, 4.75, 2.39, 2.20, 1.47 and 2.69. Just when they needed to, they have been playing some quality football. Sampdoria try to keep things tight, but they have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per Serie A game this season. Given their scoring is 1.2 per game, you can see why they are close to the bottom. Although I like Inter to cover some handicaps here, I do feel that they can keep a clean sheet too. The market is expecting goals from Inter, but Both Teams Not To Score looks a very appealing bet at 1.86 to start a cracking day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntSam
SASSUOLO V AC MILAN
5pm Next we have Sassuolo hosting AC Milan, and I can’t imagine the nerves that the AC Milan fans will go through here! The clubs has been through so much over the last few years. They are the third most successful club in Italy, but it has been a famine over the last few years. They have won two titles since 1998/99, the last of which was in 2010/11. They have been down the table, and we’re even a top four side in 2019/20. Their progress over the last two years has been incredible, and with Ronaldo leaving Juventus this summer and Lukaku leaving Inter the chance was there for AC Milan if they could perform. They have really delivered this season, and now they are one win away from a huge title win. They will have to keep their nerve here, and this is a lot tougher than the game Inter Milan have too. Goal difference is in Inter’s favour as well, so this is a must win game for AC Milan – a draw simply won’t be good enough. Although AC Milan have been under immense pressure for a while now, they have put five wins together just at the right time. It looked like they had handed the title to Inter when they recorded back-to-back 0-0’s against Bologna and Torino. However, lady luck was on AC Milan’s side when Bologna took points off Inter Milan in Inter’s game in hand! Sassuolo are your average mid-table Serie A side and AC Milan should really be winning this fixture, I have to say though the odds at 1.49 feel very short. That’s definitely a “need to win” price.
The good news for AC Milan fans is that Sassuolo have actually been better away from home compared to at home this season. This is obviously their final game and will balance out the fixtures, but at the moment they have two more points away from home. Most average sides like Sassuolo will reply on being strong at home, and in fairness to them they were very unlucky to lose to Juventus here recently. From an AC Milan point of view, you’d have to be worried about Sassuolo creating an xG of over double what Juventus managed here at the end of April. They have been creating some decent xG figures recently too – 2.27, 1.70 and 1.58 in their last three – although they did concede six against Napoli. They seem to be playing a very open game now with nothing to achieve and I can’t see them sitting back here – a draw means nothing to them after all. I do feel the 1.49 on AC Milan is too short but the value is in the goals market here. AC Milan have been in superb form, and I can see Sassuolo playing an open game too so Both Teams To Score looks the value call at 1.64. Can Sassuolo score first and really cause some drama? I can’t wait to find out!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SasAcm
ALAVES V CADIZ
7pm Next we move to La Liga where all the drama is at the bottom of the table instead of the top in Serie A. We have three huge games at 7pm and I’m going to focus on Alaves hosting Cadiz. Unfortunately Alaves are already relegated as they sit rock bottom, and also Levante as they simply couldn’t battle back from being so far behind early in the season. At the start of the day, Cadiz sit in the bottom three but have the same amount of points at Mallorca because of the head-to-head, they are only one point behind Granada and three behind Elche but Elche are safe. There’s a lot that can happen obviously between Cadiz, Mallorca and Granada. All three clubs are favourites to win, understandable given how much the market loves the “need to win” factor but Granada are at home while Cadiz and Mallorca are away. Cadiz are marginally odds on here, while Granada trade 1.49 and Mallorca are 2.34 away to Osasuna. I have to say from the three prices, Cadiz stands out as the best bet at 1.9. They have been finishing the season in superb form, and although Espanyol and Osasuna have nothing to play for, I wouldn’t back Granada or Mallorca at those prices.
There is good news and bad news for Cadiz fans. The bad news is that Alaves are sitting bottom of the table because of their away form – they have only managed six points away on season but at home they have been much better. They’ve actually won their last three home games against Espanyol, Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano too. That being said, Cadiz are playing their best football of the season at the moment. Their xG figures have been impressive lately and they have had a reasonably tough fixture list too – they’ve had to play Barcelona, Sevilla, Real Sociedad and Real Madrid within their last six games. When you compare to two sides it is Cadiz that are in better form, but it’s hard to get away from the fact that Alaves have been rock solid at home this season. I think the 1.9 on Cadiz is a “need to win” price and there is value in laying it. Any other time in the season and they wouldn’t be odds on here, I’m not going to go mad with the stakes but the 1.9 does feel too short. I still feel it’s the best option of those in the relegation battle today however, but it’s still too short!
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Cadiz to beat Alaves at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaCad
BARCELONA V VILLARREAL
9pm We stay in La Liga to finish the day with Barcelona hosting Villarreal. Barcelona bring down the curtain on a disappointing season, and attention now turns to next season already. Real Madrid won the title very easily this season, and at one stage it even looked like Barcelona might not finish in the top four. After all that drama, they will finish second this season and they won the latest El Clasico 4-0. Hopes will be high for next season under Xavi given the way they have finished the season, but I still feel there a long way away from Real Madrid. It will be interesting to see what happens with Barcelona during the transfer window, obviously their financial situation is in a very poor state, but they have still managed to sign players. Villarreal have finished the season with plenty of losses – if you include their Champions League Semi-Final they have lost four of their last six games. Barcelona were very poor in their last game and had to settle for a 0-0 draw against Getafe – they only created an xG of 0.21 in a game where they didn’t look that bothered. Their attitude might be different here in their final game of the season in front of their own fans. Nevertheless, Barcelona are trading odds against here and I’m sure they will be a tempting bet at 2.08 for plenty of football punters.
With Barcelona certain of second place and not being able to be caught, and Villarreal can’t catch Real Sociedad in sixth either. This is a meaningless fixture then, and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. Villarreal have been playing a very open game recently – their last away fixture they beat Rayo Vallecano 5-1 and they could have conceded a goal or two more. Although their recent game finished 1-1 against Sevilla, that game was extremely open too – Villarreal finished with an xG of 2.89! Barcelona won’t sit back in their final home game, so we should see plenty of goals here. There’s three fixtures kicking off at this time as well as three at 7pm, and I feel this will be the most entertaining game of the 9pm games. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.47 and that looks worth an investment to finish the La Liga season.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarVil
