DERBY COUNTDOWN HORSE BY HORSE: Daqman’s famous ABC guide today checks out Saturday’s Derby runners on rating, form, stamina and experience. Where do Desert Crown and Stone Age figure in his calculations?
DETTORI HAS ONE RIDE AT KEMPTON: A Ballydoyle-potential top two-year-old at the Curragh, a Frankie Dettori sole ride seemingly thrown in at Kempton Park tonight. These are two of Daqman’s four bets for today.
EASY-AS-ABC DERBY GUIDE
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Saturday (Cazoo Derby in memory of Lester Piggott):
A RATING 109 or higher (8 out of 10)
B FORM won Group race (8 out of 10)
C STAMINA on the racecourse or in the breeding lines.
D TRAINER Aidan O’Brien 8, Sir Michael Stoute 5, John Gosden 2, Charlie Appleby 2.
E EXPERIENCE Two to four races only (8/11)
ABCDE DESERT CROWN
By Nathaniel, who made 37lb progress in three months from a class-5 maiden to winner of the King George.
Desert Crown made a procession of the Dante Stakes, going well clear of Royal Patronage in Classic style, being compared to Golden Horn in the same race before he won the Derby off 118; Desert Crown is officially 117.
ABCD CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
Son of Galileo stepped forward a stone from his maiden win in April to take the Chester Vase unchallenged from a previous easy winner.
ABCD ROYAL PATRONAGE
Completed a hat-trick when beating Coroebus in the Royal Lodge Stakes in September but six-lengths eighth to the same horse in the 2,000 Guineas (led, weakened). Tried coming from off the pace and did it smoothly in the Dante Stakes but no answer to magnificent run from Desert Crown.
ABCD STONE AGE
The Galileo colt improved dramatically on two-year-old form (4-5 places without winning) with a runaway maiden win before dominating the Leopardstown Derby Trial in impressive style.
ABCE PIZ BADILE
(named after the Shovel Peak mountain in the Alps). Won the Ballysax with a gritty performance, short-heading Buckaroo, who won easily next time but was well behind in the Irish 2,000 Guineas (found to have a cut leg). Buckaroo misses Saturday’s race.
ABCE WESTOVER
Frankel colt out of a Lear Fan mare, has gradually stepped up the ladder, the last day all out to win the Sandown Classic Trial, still looking green.
CDE NAHANNI
Another Frankel, completed hat-trick in his fourth race – all of them this year – the Epsom Blue Riband Trial (1m 2f), beating Grand Alliance.
ACD NATIONS PRIDE
Supplemented on Monday after a racecourse gallop at Epsom last week, having beaten Hoo Ya Mal seven lengths in the Newmarket Stakes (1m 2f) in April.
ACE EYDON
Frankel is his dam’s sire. Comfortably beat Masekela (kept on, second) and Sonny Liston (4th) in the 1m 1f Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, but got unbalanced in the dip on the same course, when fourth (Royal Patronage 8th) in the 2,000 Guineas.
ADE STAR OF INDIA
Galileo’s son was fifth in the Craven Stakes (Hoo Ya Mal third, kept on) between his maiden and his Chester success stepped up in trip for the Dee Stakes, when Sonny Liston (kept on) was third
CDE WALK OF STARS
Son Of Dubawi with plenty of stamina in his pedigree, won at Newbury before running second in the Lingfield Derby Trial to a stablemate who is being aimed at the Eclipse.
CE SONNY LISTON
Fourth to Eydon and Masekela in the Feilden (took keen hold, weakened) and third in the Dee Stakes (keen hold again, raced wide) to Star of India. By Lawman out of a Galileo mare, he is brother to Banksea.
CE WEST WIND BLOWS
Teofilo colt, two out of two, on the last day beating a maiden nearly seven lengths after that one finished 10 lengths behind Westover.
C EL HABEEB
Raced only once, 125-1 when fifth in a Listed at Newmarket in the middle of May.
C HOO YA MAL
Craven Stakes third to Irish 2,000 winner, Native Trail, a length or so in front of Star of India; kept on. Stayed well when runner-up, seven lengths behind Nations Pride, again at HQ the end of April.
C MASEKELA
Always in top-class races last year; fifth in the Chesham, short-headed by Native Trail on the July Course; won the Washington Singer, and fourth to Royal Patronage in the Royal Lodge. On his return, runner-up (no chance with winner, Eydon) in the Feilden; Sonny Liston fourth.
– GLORY DAZE
Broke his maiden at The Curragh in April before no match for Stone Age in the Leopardstown Derby Trial but kept on well.
– GRAND ALLIANCE
Churchill colt improved rapidly this Spring from novice to handicap to half-length second to Nahanni in the Blue Riband Derby Trial at Epsom (1m 2f); just held.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.78 Desert Crown, 5.7 Stone Age, 9 Changingoftheguard, 10 Nations Pride, 12.5 Piz Badile, 15 Star of India, 19 Walk of Stars, 21 Eydon, Westover, 23 West Wind Blows, 26 NahannI, Royal Patronage, 41 Sonny Liston, 62 Masekela, 76 Grand Alliance, 96 Glory Daze, 100 El Habeeb, Hoo Ya Mal.
CAROLINE IS BETTER CLASS
⭕ 4.35 Nottingham Can Royal Aviation take a climb in grade, prompted by 9lb extra, and land a hat-trick after beating losers (placed horses have all failed since) at Kempton and Windsor? It seems worth a try at getting him beaten.
Kitsune Power and Ermin Street have similar low-level form but the one I think we can upgrade is Lady Caroline.
The grey Teofilo filly had her first run for Hugo Palmer in a very much stronger race at Newbury – we’re talking four grades higher than today – and has not been seen since.
She had previously won at Chester from a dual winner and was second to Kawida, who was third in the Group-3 Prix Cleopatre to Sunday’s Saint-Alary runner-up, Place Du Carrousel.
We assume she is fit to win today. She surely wouldn’t be prepping in class-4 handicap.
BETDAQ value 7.2 Lady Caroline
CHESHAM LIKELY FOR RODIN
⭕ 5.10 The Curragh Is Auguste Rodin by The Thinker? No, The Thinker won the 1987 Cheltenham Gold Cup. But the word is that this son of Galileo’s Fillies-Mile winner, Rhododendron, will be give the top juveniles something to think about.
His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, goes for a hat-trick in the race he won last year with Point Lonsdale and the one before that (2019) with Lope Y Fernandez.
Both went for the Chesham at Royal Ascot. Point Lonsdale won it but Lope Y Fernandez met Pinatubo, who was unbeatable at the time.
BETDAQ value 2.27 Auguste Rodin
JOY ON FRANKIE’S SOLE START
⭕ 8.00 Kempton Unusual these days to see Frankie Dettori make an appearance midweek at the lesser meetings. He rides Kings Joy in this and two tomorrow night at Chelmsford.
Kings Joy looks hugely underrated after her third at Ascot in April behind Grande Dame, subsequently beaten only a head in the Michael Seely at the Dante Meeting, and Mukaddamah, afterwards third to Oaks hope Nashwa in the Fillies’ Trial at Newbury.
Both are now on 100, while Kings Joy is not even top weight – on 85 – in a race in which another Oaks candidate figures in the form.
Richard Hannon had been in the doldrums for weeks with 1-44 his most recent strike rate until he suddenly hit 5-7 in the last couple of days in May, with a double at Windsor and three out of five at Newbury.
Losers while out of form can become winners when your luck turns, so I’m having a pound on Siamsa.
She went clear when breaking her maiden at HQ in September before being outclassed in a Listed won by the subsequent Fred Darling runner-up.
Siamsa was also well held behind Oaks runners Kawida and With The Moonlight, again at Newmarket.
BETDAQ value 3.05 Kings Joy, 16.5 Siamsa
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.35 Nottingham (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win LADY CAROLINE
5.10 The Curragh (win 10, nap)
BET 7.5pts win AUGUSTE RODIN
8.00 Kempton (win 20)
BET 10pts win KINGS JOY
BET 1.25pts win SIAMSA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
