NATIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Thursday’s Nations League matches between NORTHERN IRELAND v GREECE and SPAIN V PORTUGAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NORTHERN IRELAND V GREECE
7.45pm We eased our way into the International action on Wednesday, however we have a very busy fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Thursday evening! Although we have a busy evening ahead, Northern Ireland v Greece and Spain v Portugal look the highlight games. It’s always nice to focus on the Home Nations anyway, and we start the evening with Northern Ireland hosting Greece. Northern Ireland find themselves down in Group C2 this time around after getting relegation from the B Groups in 2020/21. They were very poor in the last round of Nations League, not winning a game in a Group with Austria, Norway and Romania. They might find things a little easier in this Group though, however they have yet to win a Nations League game! They finished bottom of a B Group in 2018/19 again with no wins – they didn’t even manage to draw a game there. They are better than these results, but so far the Nations League just hasn’t worked out for them. Perhaps this is their chance to change that. Greece will be a very tough challenge though, and this game will give us a good idea where Northern Ireland stand at the moment. We have an open market, with Greece coming into the game as favourites. They had a very good Nations League campaign at this level last time out, just missing out on promotion behind Slovenia.
Greece will fancy their chances of topping this Group. They won’t be afraid of Kosovo and Cyprus, so you could say this is the fixture that will decide who finishes top – if Northern Ireland start to perform better in the Nations League! We all know Northern Ireland are a much better side at home – they tend to not travel too well, so getting a result will be very important here. Both sides had pretty tough World Cup Groups with Greece getting Spain and Sweden while Northern Ireland got Switzerland and Italy. Topping this Group will be very important, and I expect a very cagey game here. If you look at Greece’s results from World Cup qualifying, they managed a draw away to Spain, but also had to settle for a draw away to Kosovo too. Greece tend to have very cagey tactics, and I can’t see them going into this game in an open fashion either. That will suit Northern Ireland, as they tend to have to grind out results anyway. The market is expecting a low scorer here with under 2.5 goals trading 1.5, and I couldn’t put anyone off that but I much prefer the draw here at 3.1. This is going to be an exceptionally close game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Draw at 3.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NorGre
SPAIN V PORTUGAL
7.45pm Next we have a real glamour tie as Spain host Portugal in Group A2. Although the winner of this Group will very likely come from these two, don’t rule out Switzerland – they managed to top their World Cup qualifying Group with Italy in it! I’m sure Portugal were absolutely delighted to see North Macedonia beat Italy so they didn’t have to deal with them in the Playoffs! Spain come into the game as favourites, and while Portugal still remain a top side, their level has dropped off in recent years. They seemingly had their World Cup Group “won” with two games to go, but failed to beat an average Republic of Ireland side in their second last game, leaving them needing a draw to top the Group at home to Serbia. To incredible scenes, Serbia scored the 90th minute to go through. As I said, Portugal fans were glad to see North Macedonia instead of Italy after that setback! Portugal usually put the average sides to the sword, but they have struggled against the well organised teams and also the top teams recently. Spain are also not the force of old, but they are heading in the right direction again. They made it to the Final of the last Nations League and lead 1-0 for a brief time but France bounced back to win 2-1. Spain topped their World Cup Group without much drama, but they did lose away to Sweden along the way. Spain are rightfully favourites, but the 2.22 does feel a little short. It’s likely Portugal will have quite negatively tactics here, and Spain will have to work hard to break them down.
The big question from a betting point of view here is do you go with the lay on Spain or look to the goal markets. I can see a very cagey game here – Portugal are usually very cagey when the meet the big sides. Under 2.5 goals definitely makes a lot of appeal here at 1.76. I would have it a couple of ticks shorter. Spain weren’t banging in the goals for fun like years past in the World Cup qualifiers recently, and I can see them trying to grind out a 1-0 win here. I do feel that Portugal will make the game closer than odds of 2.22 suggest, so I couldn’t put anyone off from a value point of view but the unders stands out here in what should be a cagey game. I know Portugal do have the attacking stars, but they just don’t score that many these days. Their goal difference was only +11 in World Cup qualifying and they had some pretty weak teams in there too. I wouldn’t be surprise at all to see 0-0 here either, and couldn’t put anyone off a small bet in the Correct Score market but it’s under 2.5 goals for me.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaPor
