60.0 BETDAQ BET THIRD AT 8-1 FAVOURITE: The commiseration ‘hard luck’ applied in spades to our man Daqman yesterday when his 60.0 ante-post Grand National bet, Seabass, was third at 8-1 joint favourite after a headline ride from Katie Walsh.
20.0 ‘SUNNY’ TOUCHED OFF BY A NOSE: And the salt in the wound was defeat by a nose for his number-one National selection on the day, Sunnyhillboy (2nd 16-1), tipped at 20.0 on Betdaq in the morning. ‘Sunny’ traded at 1.03 in the run to the line.
FANTASTIC VALUE OVER THE BOOKIES: Daqman says: ‘Bad luck for me but a victory for punters: all must now appreciate the fantastic Betdaq value on a race in which the bookies went 152% at the ‘off’, massively and cynically overround to the innocent man-in-the-street’s annual punt.’
It’s Classic-trial week. Drop back three-and-a-half miles and remove the fences. Now you have the turf prepared for the next great equine tests in a totally different light, with tender young horses nurtured from birth for the Guineas and the Derby.
These are my ante-post bets in this column so far (no more photo-finishes please) before the clues start to make up the Classics jigsaws, starting today and going on to Newmarket and Newbury later in the week.
Ante-post: win-50 jackpot: 1.6pts win DIALA (31.0 for the 1,000 Guineas)
Ante-post: win-50 jackpot: 1.9pts win SWEDISH SAILOR (27.0, Epsom Derby)
They are probably way off the mark but, as you see, only a couple of points is needed to get yourself an nearly position, based at this stage mainly on hope but which could get you a 60.0 shot running at 8-1.
What you don’t do is back last year’s two-year-old form as if those winners have a divine right to win the 2012 Classics. They don’t. They won’t. That was last year; this is this year.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix de la Grotte): It sounds like an episode from Reginald Perrin but this is the best of today’s French trials, with last year’s winner, Golden Lilac, going on to a Classic double of Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas) and Prix de Diane (French Oaks).
The previous year, Andre Fabre’s Anna Salai, came from the Grotte to the Curragh and was beaten a head for the Irish 1,000 Guineas (sorry to say, that was another one of my photo-finish defeats).
Today’s trial has three unbeaten fillies, the Aga Khan’s Mandistana, Godolphin’s Woven Lace (Andre Fabre going for a hat-trick in this race) and the form-boosted Wildenstein-Lellouche runner, Beauty Parlour.
The English and Irish lines to the form are through Freddie Head’s Zantenda, unbeaten in two starts when she was stopped by Elusive Kate (John Gosden) and Fire Lily (David Wachman) in the Marcel Boussac..
Is there another Zarkava among today’s fillies? She won this race in 2008 (Aga Khan – Alain de Royer Dupre) and was never beaten, winning French Guineas, Oaks and Vermeille, and bowing out with the Arc de Triomphe.
2.55 Leopardstown (2,000 Guineas Trial): Akeed Wafi, who lives in the shadow of the Epsom Derby second favourite, stablemate Akeed Mofeed, has the chance of a headline here in his own right.
Furner’s Green and Vault are exposed but Jim Bolger has another Teofilo, Tiger At Heart, who wouldn’t have to be much to upset these: 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.10 Longchamp (Prix de Fontainebleau): The unbeaten Dabirsim had Sofast closing him down between Deauville (August, Prix Morny) and Longchamp (October, Prix Lagardere) as the trip was extended from 6f to 7f; today both are in unknown territory over a mile.
Irish eyes will be looking for a line to their Guineas horses from Dragon Pulse, switched from Jessica Harrington to Mikel Delzangles.
Dragon Pulse beat Jim Bolger’s Parish Hall in the Futurity at The Curragh but was beaten favourite, half a length down to the Ballydoyle colt Power in the National Stakes.
The best the Fontainebleau has produced in recent years is Silver Frost (2009), who followed his prep win in this with success in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas).
4.00 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial): There’s a vital collateral form cross-ref here that connects English, Irish and French fillies via Fire Lily (see Prix de la Grotte earlier).
Fire Lily was fourth in the Queen Mary and won the Anglesey at The Curragh before second in the Moyglare (to Newmarket 1,000 Guineas favourite Maybe) and again in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp.
Drifting right out on Betdaq like a lonely dog on a raft this morning is Rubina, and the Ballydoyle pair, Up (at 6.0) and After (27.0), are not much wanted.
4.35 Leopardstown (Ballysax Stakes): Only the Ballydoyle winners of this go on to glory: Galileo, High Chaparral, Yeats and Fame And Glory, taking two English and three Irish Derbys.
Ballydoyle sent Ernest Hemingway out to win 10 lengths at Dundalk on Friday when he must have been a couple of dozen places down the ranks from David Livingston, who beat Akeed Mofeed in the Beresford Stakes.
Yet again Jim Bolger throws the big question mark into the ring when he asks another Teofilo called Light Heavy to overcome a triple O’Brien presence.
Bolger is on a hat-trick in the Ballysax, and those who took the tough sort, Banimpire, out of the race last year will remember how he improved her to win five more major races, including the Ribblesdale.
The Ballysax looked a brave move for a filly but it paid off in spades. I’m not so sure Light Heavy is of that stature, since he has to wear a tongue-tie and cheekpieces today, and Call To Battle may be the stronger opponent to David Livingston.
The collateral link here is Furner’s Green, who runs in the 2,000 Guineas Trial. He was beaten half a length by Light Heavy at Leopardstown in March took a 10-lengths hammering from David Livingston in the Beresford in September. But, as I say, that was last year; this is this year: so keep your stakes down in all three-year-old races.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 2.7pts win TIGER AT HEART (2.55 Leopardstown)
BET 11pts win FIRE LILY (4.00 Leopardstown)
BET 10pts win MIC’S DELIGHT (4.10 Market Rasen)
BET 12pts win (nap) DAVID LIVINGSTONE (4.35 Leopardstown)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
