NATIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s matches between ARMENIA v SCOTLAND, ENGLAND v HUNGARY, NETHERLANDS v WALES and UKRAINE v REPUBLIC OF IRELAND all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARMENIA V SCOTLAND
5pm It’s the final day of what has been a long International break on Tuesday, and we go out with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Scotland, England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland are all in action to bring down the curtain on the Nations League for the time being. The next time we’ll have Nations League action will be mid-September when the sides will play their final two games in the Group, and then of course all roads will lead to the World Cup. It’s not ideal having the World Cup in the winter, but what can we do. Whatever about the politics of it being in Qatar, we’ll enjoy the football on the pitch when it starts! We kick the evening off early with Armenia hosting Scotland in Group B1. After the results at the weekend this Group is wide open. Ukraine sit on top with six points from their two games but then you have Republic of Ireland, Scotland and Armenia all together on three points. I feel Ukraine will definitely top this Group – they are the best team to be fair and basically the aim for the others will be to not get relegated. Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself there, because if Ukraine lose tonight then the Group is wide open but it’s hard to see Ireland getting a result away from home. On paper, this is close to a “must win” game for Scotland. They can’t afford to drop points to Armenia.
The market is reasonably confident on a Scotland win here, with the away side trading 1.6 at the time of writing. Scotland were pretty poor at the weekend away to Ireland, shipping three goals and scoring none is pretty poor. I saw some ridiculous stat saying that the last time Ireland scored two goals at home in the first against a non-minnow nation like San Marino or someone like that was way back in 2013. Ireland scored some very nice goals, but perhaps those goals won’t come off all the time; however it’s still a very disappointing result for Scotland. Because we’ve had such a long international break, these sides have already met. Scotland were comfortable in a 2-0 win with home advantage last week, but given Armenia were able to grind out a 1-0 win here against Ireland I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scotland have to work very hard to get a result here. I feel Armenia will be very negative and cagey, and if Scotland are to win they will have to grind it out. I wouldn’t put anyone off the Scotland lay from a trading point of view, however I like under 2.5 goals here at 1.79. This game won’t have many chances in my opinion, I was actually very surprised to see it trading that high when I clicked into the market.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArmSco
ENGLAND V HUNGARY
7.45pm Next we move to Group A3 where England host Hungary. Once again this game is being played at Wolves home ground Molineux. We didn’t manage to see a goal here on Saturday as England drew 0-0 with Italy. You can see the UK media trying to put pressure on Southgate now – there are already cries of they should be creating more with this squad and this is pretty much a must win game. England can’t stay bottom of this Group because it just puts unnecessary pressure on the manager and the squad in a World Cup year. Really and truly the issue isn’t the performances against Germany and Italy – I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest a draw isn’t a good result against those nations – the problem was the loss to Hungary. This was always going to be a very open Group with England, Italy and Germany taking points off each other and you’d imagine Hungary will get relegated. Then Hungary beat England, and now England sit last. England would be top if you reverse that result. They can set the record straight here however, the market is confident on a home win with England trading as short as 1.3 at the time of writing. Apart from Turkey at home to Lithuania, that is the shortest price of any side today. With pressure growing and we all know what the UK press are like, this is a must win game for England.
Despite everyone assuming that Hungary would be the whipping boys of this Group, they have held their own pretty well. Even if you took out the England win, they only lost by one goal away to Italy and then managed to grind out a 1-1 draw at home against Germany. We saw two very early goals in that game, and then Hungary held on for the draw. Given the fact that Italy, Germany and England are going to take points off each other, Hungary could avoid relegation which would be a massive achievement. I expect England to win here, they have had some negative history with Hungary over the last few years – even last week when only schoolkids were allowed in the ground they were boo’d for taking the knee. However, I don’t expect it to be as easy as the market suggests. Hungary haven’t been shipping goals and chances for fun, and England have performed in a disjointed manner over this International break. I feel there are two ways to play this, either Hungary on the handicap or under 2.5 goals. I’m going to opt for under 2.5 goals at 2.04 as that allows for a 2-0 England win too. I expect a pretty cagey game here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 0-0 at half-time but England should grind out a win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EngHun
NETHERLANDS V WALES
7.45pm We stay at the A level as we move to Group A4 for Netherlands v Wales. It was always going to be tough for Wales to stay at the A level in the Nations League, but they are under immense pressure sitting last in the Group. We always felt that the winner would be between Netherlands and Belgium, while relegation would be between Poland and Wales. Given Wales lost 2-1 to Poland, they were always going to face an uphill task. Unexpectantly they picked up a point with a late goal at home to Belgium at the weekend, which is a bonus. Poland did manage a draw away to Netherlands on the same night however which is a better result. Wales are now three points off Poland at the bottom of the table – they’ll have to beat them at Cardiff in the final Group game to stay up. Although this will be a difficult time for Wales, I’m not sure they are unhappy with things given they made it to the World Cup in between their Nations League games! They will probably view anything in this Nations League as a bonus after that! Netherlands are fully expected to win here by the market – they are trading 1.34 at the time of writing.
It was a surprise to see Netherlands draw 2-2 with Poland at the weekend, but they generally play a very open game and they accept that they will concede goals as well as score them. They went 2-0 down, and came back to 2-2 – although they did have the final 30 minutes to find a winner and couldn’t. That will give Wales hope because they know that they will get chances. We had a pretty cagey first half in Cardiff when they sides met last week before it all kicked off in added on time in the second half. Wales went level in the 92nd minute and then Netherlands re-took the lead on the 94th minute! I feel if we get an early goal here we could have an exceptionally open game with a host of chances and goals. Wales have mainly focused on being solid at the back in recent years and they have been successful in doing that, but the Netherlands just made every game they play in so open. Wales have to chase a result here, and over 2.5 goals really stands out at 1.75. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw four or five goals, but the over 2.5 goals price is very nice. This should be a cracking game, and might be the best one to watch at 7-45pm.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NetWal
UKRAINE V REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
7.45pm We move back to Group B1 as Ukraine host the Republic of Ireland. Ukraine are in a fantastic position in this Group with two wins from their opening two games, and with Ireland beating Scotland at the weekend that leaves them three points clear. As I said above, it will be surprise if they couldn’t top this Group – they are the best side in the Group – but a loss here and a win for Scotland in Armenia would definitely open things up heading into the final two games! Ukraine’s plan of course will be to win here, and extend their lead even further. They managed to grind out a 1-0 win in Dublin last week, and although Ireland will come into this fixture in good spirits after a 3-0 win over Scotland at the weekend. I know I’ve touched on this before but the Irish manager has a huge backing from the grass roots League of Ireland fans, and that’s basically why he hasn’t come under any pressure given the really poor results lately. Those fans will point to the fantastic goals at the weekend as a sign of success but they won’t be able to create those chances or score from that range every week. You’d really want to see a follow up performance here, and all eyes will be on this Irish side.
The betting market is always a great reflection of reality versus fan opinion. Most Irish fans will be on a high after the Scotland game, but the reality is Ukraine are odds on favourites here and they should win. You have to judge this Irish side from an overall point of view, and in general they just don’t create enough chances or score enough goals to cope with a side like Ukraine. The positive for Ireland however is that they are generally better playing counter-attacking football away from home. They will be quite cagey for this game, and I can see a low scoring game here. The big question from a betting point of view is whether to take the 1.85 on Ukraine to grind out a win or the 1.68 on under 2.5 goals. Personally I wouldn’t put anyone off either bet, but under 2.5 goals is my choice at 1.68. We didn’t see many chances between this pair last week, and given this is a neutral venue I can’t see an immense atmosphere too. This could actually turn into a pretty dull game, and Ireland wouldn’t be unhappy with a draw. I wouldn’t even rule out 0-0 here, but unders is my call to finish this International break!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UkrIre
