COME ON MY SON! IT’S ANOTHER JACKPOT WINNER: Daqman has been out of form lately but not with his jackpot bets: Mayson (WON 7-2) took his total in a sequence since December 3rd to 22 winners for 208 points profit. His horses-to-follow list also contained Mayson.
1,000 TIMES ‘NO’: Still on eight lays successful out of the last 10, Daqman attacks the Newmarket favourites again today, in the 1,000 Guineas and the Dahlia Stakes.
The stands’ side won the races yesterday. Yet the centre-field stalls which caused a three-way split in the 2,000 Guineas remain in the same position for the 1,000 because, according to the clerk of the Newmarket course, ‘the best horse won.’
How does he know, particularly when all returns on the card were recorded slow by up to 11 seconds? We probably saw the Derby winner yesterday but we certainly didn’t see the champion miler like last year.
As often happens when horses are delayed because of a bad Spring, the Irish Guineas and Royal Ascot will hold the key.
My ante-post bets for today, Diala (in 13) and Gray Pearl (in 14), should have no excuse from their stands’ stalls, if they act on the ground.
I took Diala at 31.0 on BETDAQ and she was 14.5 this morning, 12-1 with the majority of bookmakers; I took Gray Pearl at 3.40 but she’s drifted like a dog on a raft, out to 47.0 by 9 o’clock, although 22-1 with Hills.
2.05 Newmarket: The favourite, Anatolian, has to prove himself on the ground but, as a son of Pivotal, is likely to love it; however, this appears to be a prep for Yorkshire Cup in two weeks’ time.
Stablemate Sandusky has already won on the soft and could have improved the proverbial ton for such a light second season. We can only wait and see.
As a Medicean, Luca Cumani’s Franciscan could also improve dramatically at this stage of his career: Cumani’s early-season form figures are nothing to shout about but, if you sift them and allow only those horses at 4-1 or less SP, he is currently 1103, a clear case of ‘watch the market.’ Franciscan is 11.0 as I write.
In a wide-open contest, I expect the field to be taken along by Mark Johnston’s Hurricane Higgins. He’s fit from AW and was leading Group races last season; he could easily last out into a place in this much lower class: 17.0, as I write.
The big, strong Mountain Range’s form after an absence is 21; the 16.0 is tempting for a horse with a trainer who likes to win this; John Dunlop has scored twice in five years, and is already making excuses (‘it’s a tough race’): a sure sign that he’s really keen.
You have to save stakes on Local Hero, second in he Scottish Champion Hurdle; he’s unlikely to have the class on the Flat but has a tempting handicap mark.
2.35 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes): Timepiece has never won before June. Her early-season efforts of 43 in 2010 and 34 last year don’t fill you with confidence, though Sir Henry Cecil is on a hat-trick today after two out of two on Saturday.
The grey mare, Captivator (14.5 this morning), is fit as a flea for her Kempton win but is climbing in class and has been rejected in the trade paper because she’s won only on AW and good to firm. In fact, she ran well on the soft at Chester and is a half-sister to smart soft-ground winners Azarole and Pistachio.
Khawlah beat the colts in the UAE Derby last Spring; her dam’s sire, Selkirk, loved it soft. Izzi Top won first time out last season, a Group 3 on the soft, though John Gosden has yet to fire this term.
But with Khawlah, Izzi Top and Captivator on my side against a late starter, I shall lay Timepiece: 2.62 in the green baize this morning; just waiting to be sunk with a long pot. Come on, Ali Carter!
3.15 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas): There seems more quality in depth among the fillies here – five are unbeaten – than among the 2,000 colts but which of them will act on the ground (Lightening Pearl is unlikely to), which ones are really Oaks fillies (almost certainly Discourse) and will the far side be run out of it again (I can’t fancy Mashoora and Moonstone Magic from their low stalls)?
As for Lyric Of Light, no filly has ever won both May Hill and Fillies’ Mile and gone on to take this Guineas, and Diala was unlucky not to beat her on her racecourse debut.
Diala’s trainer, William Haggas, has captured the Derby (Shaamit) and Oaks (Dancing Rain) with horses that had won only their maidens.
La Collina is held on two-year-old form by Maybe, but again the Ballydoyle favourite is bred more for an Oaks – by Galileo, dam related to Oaks and Derby winners – though Aidan O’Brien knows a lot about today’s collateral form through Homecoming Queen.
Like Top Offer yesterday, The Fugue is very unlikely to win after a single outing; and I can’t have a Classic winner wearing a hood (John Gosden’s other runner, Starscope).
The snag with opposing Oaks-bred fillies – Alla Speranza, Discourse, Maybe – is that, as happened yesterday with Camelot, a middle-distance horse can come through and scrap his or her way home with a display of stamina in the conditions.
But, unless something rails for her like a Mayson on the far side, Alla Speranza has the disadvantage of stall one; and Maybe has to be opposed at her prohibitive odds.
Though favourites do well in today’s first fillies’ Classic, Ballydoyle favourites don’t; in fact, O’Brien runners in the race are 1-18 in the last decade.
Hardly a good reason to bet at 2.65, with the lay unusually close at 2.67, as I write. The words ‘Daqman’, ‘head’ and ‘chopping block’ are also unusually close. But backing the silly offers and laying the fool’s gold are the only ways to bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2pts win and place MOUNTAIN RANGE and 1.8pts win and place HURRICANE HIGGINS; 1pt win (stakes saver) LOCAL HERO (2.05 Newmarket)
LAY to win 10pts TIMEPIECE and BET: 5pts win KHAWLAH and 1.4pts win CAPTIVATOR (2.35 Newmarket)
LAY to win 10pts MAYBE, and already ante-post: WIN-50 JACKPOT: 1.6pts win DIALA (31.0); WIN-40 JACKPOT: GRAY PEARL (34.0) in the 3.15 Newmarket.
HORSES TO FOLLOW running today: Diala (3.15 Newmarket).
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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