SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews ROMA v FIORENTINA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V FIORENTINA
7.45pm It’s the start of a huge week from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange with the Champions League and Europa League Semi-Final second legs, and we kick it off with Monday Night Football from Serie A! Roma host Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico in what should be a very interesting game. This is a massive fixture for Roma in the race for European spots – they come into the matchday sitting in sixth with 61 points and the Europa League qualification picture is tightening with every passing week. At one stage, they looked good for Champions League football which would have been a massive achievement; now they are in a battle to hold onto a Europa League spot. I don’t see Atalanta catching them to knock them out of the European spots, but Europa Conference League would be disappointing after the season they’ve had.
Fiorentina have been a completely different side in the second half of the season. After flirting dangerously with the relegation zone for much of the campaign, they have produced a remarkable turnaround and now have a comfortable nine point cushion on the bottom three coming into this matchday. They’ve lost just once in their last seven Serie A games, they’ve also managed five wins in their last ten games – an extraordinary run of form that has transformed their season entirely – just when they needed it too! In fairness, they should have never been in the relegation battle. Their average xG created of 1.38 is a respectable mid-table figure for a side that spent much of the campaign looking over their shoulder at the drop zone. Their average xG conceded of 1.44 is broadly mid-table too – it’s not the figure of a side in relegation trouble.
Roma have obviously been playing very good football this season; but they have fallen away a little. Their average xG created of 1.51 is the sixth best attacking figure in Serie A, so they can’t really complain about sitting sixth! Their average xG conceded is 1.17, which is an excellent defensive figure, but that’s also sixth best. Roma come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.66 with Fiorentina 5.8 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. I have to say that 1.66 on Roma feels a little short given the way Fiorentina have been finishing off the season. Under new management, they have looked a completely different team and they are now playing with genuine freedom and confidence. Form counts for a lot at this stage of the season, and Fiorentina come into this game in the kind of mood that will give Roma serious problems.
I have to say, it’s hard to get away from the Roma lay here from a value point of view. I just see the game being closer than those odds suggest – I know Roma love having their home fans behind them and the atmosphere here is excellent. However, they’ve only managed five wins from their last 13 Serie A games and with Fiorentina getting so many results, I’m happy with a small Roma lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Roma to beat Fiorentina at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SARoFi
