PULL THE CORK ON CHELTENHAM WINNERS: Cork and Southwell are already winners: that’s how it feels to pass an inspection and actually race these days! Cork has a couple or more races that could have a big bearing on Cheltenham.
LOOK OUT FOR DAQMAN NAP’S GAMBLE: Daqman expects a gamble on his nap at Cork, with Willie Mullins tipped to set up another sequence horse.
EXPECTING A BIG GAMBLE ON BLUE
⭕ 1.45 Cork Those who were too nervous to back an odds-on shot, Vroum Vroum Mag, in the 2014 renewal of this mares’ novice chase had nine consecutive races over the next 16 months to wish they had.
Vroum Vroum Mag won them all, including the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Punchestown Champion Hurdle.
In 12 consecutive races, all at odds on, she won 11 of them and her trainer, Willie Mullins went on to win five more of these on this day at Cork. One of them Elimay (2019) would win four of five at odds-on.
I rarely bet odds on but I know a man who does, and he warns: ‘You need sequence horses with the right trainers; Willie Mullins over Jumps and Sir Mark Prescott on the Flat are my favourites; look ahead with the horse and calculate an assumed sequence of four out of five winners at 4-6, what you’d need to stake; how it would all work out.’
For today, he has a simpler device: assume that Dinoblue wins, then her current 11-1 for the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham will probably halve.
She is 2.52 on BETDAQ for today’s race when you think (I think) she should be even money.
I’ve decided she is that big a player and I’ve set aside 12 points to start out; I bet 5 to win 50 for Cheltenham and 7 to win 10 today.
Willie Mullins’ verdict: ‘She jumps as well as any mare.’ Cheltenham here we come.
ENERGUMENE IS OUT AT EXERCISE..
⭕ 2.20 Cork (Hilly Way Chase) Willie Mullins again. He’s won this seven years out of eight, seven as favourite, six of them odds on.
But to follow his likely winner, Energumene, we are talking not odds on but long odds on in future.
Energumene has already had his hot sequence of nine wins out of 10 races, including last year’s Hilly Way, eight of them odds on but none as short as he’ll be today (1.14 on BETDAQ this morning) in what should be a fencing exercise.
The lesson is you’ve got to catch them early in – preferably at the front of – their sequence and that again means relying on a master trainer like Mullins.
That means taking a horse like Dinoblue. You’ve started at odds against and you’ve got a future investment.
If it doesn’t work out, you’ve lost two bets; if she is a star, you’ve already won one and have ‘overs’ on another. Plus a sequence of I don’t know how many to follow.
DOLLAR FOR ONE WIN BACK TO BACK
⭕ 12.53 Southwell Sue Smith trained three consecutive winners last weekend and comes here with a 60% strike rate and just one to saddle. The animal in question, Treshnish, is a Hexham specialist (4-4) but, once he’s jumped the first four fences at Southwell, he’ll swing left on a hairpin almost as if he’s returned to the start at Hexham!
Atlantic has gone 29 starts 24 times in the first four, gets 10lb from Treshnish and is a dual CD winner at Southwell.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.8 Treshnish, 4.3 Atlantic Storm
⭕ 2.28 Southwell I’m betting on another ‘sequence’ of a kind here. Like Treshnish, Dollar Bae is a last-day winner, and I’m betting that one of the two will win, hopefully both.
Dollar Bae is up a grade and 8lb higher but Progressive has not lived up to her name, and has switched from Nicky Henderson to Dr Richard Newland, whose yard has drawn a blank for 25 consecutive races.
Ucanaver, who is 9lb worse with runner-up Rock Of Fame on their February form, has failed to finish the last twice, while Rock of Fame is 0-13 over hurdles, and on the Flat and AW!
BETDAQ value 2.58 Dollar Bae
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.53 Southwell (win 10 plus saver)
BET 3.5pts win TRESHNISH
BET 1.25pts win (saver) ATLANTIC STORM
1.45 Cork (win 15, nap)
BET 10pts win DINOBLUE
2.28 Southwell (win 12)
BET 7.5pts win DOLLAR BAE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
