FRIDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Friday’s La Liga action between CELTA VIGO v SEVILLA and REAL VALLADOLID v REAL MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CELTA VIGO V SEVILLA
6.15pm The La Liga action continues on Friday and we have two huge fixtures on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We kick off the evening with a huge relegation battle between Celta Vigo and Sevilla – it’s actually hard to believe this is called a relegation battle with Sevilla finishing fourth last season, and even “challenging” for the title at one stage, and then Celta Vigo were comfortably sitting in mid-table last season – as they usually do recently. Celta Vigo have had history of being down the bottom though; they finished 17th in 2019/20 just one point away from the relegation zone. They then went on to jump up to 8th in the 2020/21 season! It’s obviously a shock to see Sevilla down in the relegation zone – they had a very poor start to the season but you always felt they would start winning games eventually. That never happened, and so they sat in the bottom three during the World Cup. The most worrying thing from a Sevilla point of view is their performances – they have been woeful, and it’s not like they are playing good football and have just been unlucky. We’re all familiar with the saying “you don’t become a bad team overnight” but seems that is what has happened to Sevilla this season! It’s a sign of the times that they are trading as outsiders for this game too.
The Sevilla xG figures are very damning. They are conceding an xG of 2.0 per game this season, and when you are only creating close to one goal that’s clearly going to cause problems. What’s probably even more worrying is that they aren’t even conceding all the goals they should be based on their performances. Their actual goals conceded is an average of 1.6 per game, whereas the xG is 2.0! Celta Vigo are only sitting one point above them, but their performances have been better. They have been trying to keep their games as tight as possible – they are conceding an xG of close to 1 per game but only creating just over 1 too. They clearly have issues going forward, but you can see they have been unlucky at the back – they are conceding close to two goals per game, but they have been playing better than that. It’s not a surprise to see Celta Vigo as the favourites here, however I must say I wasn’t expecting them to be as short as 2.36 when I clicked into the market. While I really worry about the level of play from Sevilla this season, from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Celta Vigo at the odds because I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest. I’m going to keep stakes low because of the quality from Sevilla this season, but Celta Vigo haven’t been creating enough themselves to be clear favourites.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Celta Vigo to beat Sevilla at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelSev
REAL VALLADOLID V REAL MADRID
8.30pm We finish the evening with the La Liga Champions in action as Real Valladolid host Real Madrid. It was a fantastic start to the season for Real Madrid, but after taking some setbacks they went into the World Cup two points behind Barcelona. They dropped points against Girona and Rayo Vallecano in the lead up to the World Cup, and after doing all the hard work and winning El Clasico to go clear at the top, they threw away that advantage. Barcelona have been playing exceptional football this season too – it’s definitely going to be a challenge for Real Madrid to hold onto the La Liga title – but whatever happens we’re going to have an excellent title race between the top two! Real Madrid will be fully expected to win this fixture by most football fans, but they weren’t exactly firing in their games heading into the World Cup. Perhaps if we didn’t have the World Cup, you would be willing to take them on here looking at the xG figures, but the break came at a good time for them. They had dropped points in two of their last three games, and they didn’t play well at home to Cadiz in their final game either – but at least they grinded out a 2-1 win. Real Valladolid are sitting in mid-table, but they will fancy their chances of getting a result here with home advantage. They are likely to go into this game very negative and aim for a draw so it will be interesting to see how the tactics play out.
At the time of writing, Real Madrid are trading 1.51 and that looks about right to me. I don’t see any value in the match odds market here so I’m happy to look around the side markets for some value. When I look at the Real Valladolid stats from before the World Cup, this game screams goals. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small because it’s the first game back, but Valladolid were conceding an xG of close to two goals per game in La Liga before the World Cup. That’s not a good stat considering what Real Madrid were creating going forward – they had an average xG of 2.4 per game, and they were scoring that exact figure too. Over 2.5 goals looks a very nice option here at 1.61, especially if we get an early goal and Real Valladolid have to come out of their shell. I do expect them to sit back and play for a draw, so I’m happy with two points but the 1.61 is too big to ignore. What an interesting evening in La Liga though, it’s great to be back!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValRea
