FA CUP SATURDAY: The Striker looks ahead to the FA Cup Third round games on Saturday between TOTTENHAM v PORTSMOUTH, BOURNEMOUTH v BURNLEY, BRENTFORD v WEST HAM and LIVERPOOL v WOLVES all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TOTTENHAM V PORTSMOUTH
12.30pm We have an action packed Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with the Third Round of the FA Cup! There’s a huge amount of games right throughout Saturday, so it’s important to pick which ones you want to focus on from a betting point of view. If you spread yourself too thin in the markets, that’s when mistakes happen when trading. I’m happy to focus on four games today, the first of which is Spurs hosting Portsmouth. You have to go back to 2010 for the last meeting between these sides – that was actually one of Portsmouth’s best days. They won 2-0 after extra-time to make it to the FA Cup Final! Unfortunately they lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the Final afterwards. That was a bittersweet occasion for Portsmouth because that was also the year they finished rock bottom of the Premier League table, and they haven’t been back since. Indeed, they have slipped further down the tables to League One rather than the Championship and they are unrecognisable now as a club compared to their Premier League days. I suppose it’s fixtures like this that make the FA Cup so special because you get to relive the memories!
Spurs will be fully expected to win this game. Indeed, they are trading at one of the shortest prices in the FA Cup this weekend. They are trading 1.17 at the time of writing which is actually the shortest price by one tick – but we all know markets can move. Spurs come into this game after hammered Crystal Palace 4-0 midweek in the Premier League, and that was a much needed win after dropping points in their two games since returning from the World Cup. They were woeful at home to Aston Villa on New Year’s Day, but that win has settled the ship for the time being. I think it’s important to keep stakes small this weekend because we are likely to see a host of changes, especially from the Premier League clubs. Portsmouth have been involved in their fair share of high scoring games this season, and we’ve had a lot of carnage in the Spurs games this season too! I feel we’ll see a lot of action here, and Over 3.5 goals is worth a small bet at 1.98 to kick off the day.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 3.5 goals at 1.98 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotPor
BOURNEMOUTH V BURNLEY
3pm We have a mountain of games kicking off at 3pm, but Bournemouth v Burnley looks the pick of them in my opinion. It wasn’t so long ago that this was an all Premier League clash, but now the sides are in two very different situations. Bournemouth are clearly under immense pressure in the Premier League – they aren’t sitting in the bottom three but they remain odds on to go down if you look at the betting markets. That win for Nottingham Forest midweek was massive for them too, and moved Forest one point ahead of Bournemouth. I always feel it’s a shame when you see mid-to-low table Premier League sides rest players for an FA Cup game, but you could probably forgive Bournemouth for doing that here given their situation. Burnley, on the other hand, come into this game full of confidence as they sit top of the Championship table. They have moved five points clear now of second place Sheffield United, but not only that – they are 14 points clear of the third place Blackburn. They look nailed on to return to the Premier League after going down just last season. It’s a hard thing to achieve just jumping straight back up given how competitive the Championship is, but they have handled themselves very well.
We have a very open betting heat here, as you would expect really. Bournemouth are favourites at the moment, currently trading 2.58 at the time of writing, but as I mentioned above I wouldn’t be surprised if they opted to rest some players here so perhaps we’ll see a bit of movement around the team news. Looking at the stats, even though Burnley have been playing their football in the Championship this season it looks to me like they have been playing better football than Bournemouth. They have been far more solid at the back anyway because Bournemouth are conceding close to two goals per game. It’s tempting to take the 2.98 on the Burnley win, but I’m happy to keep the draw on our side here and go with the Bournemouth lay at 2.58. I just wouldn’t have them clear favourites here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Bournemouth to beat Burnley at 2.58 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouBur
BRENTFORD V WEST HAM
5.30pm We finish the day with two all Premier League clashes, the first of which is Brentford hosting West Ham. The draw midweek with Leeds somewhat eased the pressure on David Moyes at West Ham, but the win for Nottingham Forest wasn’t a good result, and they currently sit just outside the relegation zone but they are now level on points with Everton. At the start of the season you wouldn’t have even put West Ham into the relegation discussion, but they are in it now. Their squad is simply too good to go down, but they need to start turning around their performances quickly and start picking up points. Maybe the change in competition will help here. These sides met very recently over the New Year period, and Brentford ran out 2-0 winners away from home. They finished the game with a highest xG figure than they conceded so they deserved to win, but a one goal difference might have been a better reflection of the game. I’d expect another reasonably close game here, but we should also expect changes to the starting XI’s.
We you would expect, we have a pretty open betting heat. Brentford are the favourites at 2.52 which you can fully understand. They have home advantage, and West Ham just haven’t been playing good football this season. Brentford must come into this game full of confidence too after beating Liverpool 3-1 here on Monday evening. It was an open game, but they deserved to win. A performance even close to that level should do the job here to be honest. I’m definitely keep stakes low here because it’s here to know what kind of starting XI’s we’re going to get, but it seems a good time to be against West Ham at the moment. They just haven’t been firing this season, and Brentford arrive into this fixture in great form too. They are worth backing at 2.52.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brentford to beat West Ham at 2.52 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/brewes
LIVERPOOL V WOLVES
8pm We finish Saturday with another all Premier League clash as Liverpool host Wolves! Jurgen Klopp has mainly decided to rest nearly all of his main XI for the FA Cup in recent seasons, so I would expect a fairly young and new side here from Liverpool. You’d have to ask the question given Liverpool’s recent performances; is that a bad thing? Liverpool have been all over the place this season, and at the moment it looks like they might even miss out on a Top Four finish the way things are going. They just keep conceding a host of chances, and sloppy goals too. I am very surprised that Klopp hasn’t been able to fix the issues at the back, especially given he had the whole World Cup break to work out what to do. Liverpool will still be expected to win this game given how poor Wolves have been this season. Wolves currently sit in the bottom three, and despite recording a huge win over Everton on Boxing Day the way things have gone since means they are under immense pressure again in the relegation fight. Despite that, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Liverpool at 1.35. Those odds feel much too short, especially with likely changes.
With Liverpool trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Wolves were able to grind out a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday night, and they did keep Manchester United down to one goal on New Year’s Eve too. I would expect them to be quite cagey here, but Liverpool have been so open this season it’s hard to see them not giving Wolves chances at some stage. Whether or not Wolves are good enough to take advantage of that is another question, but Over 2.5 goals looks good value at 1.6. Liverpool games have had an average xG of 4.0 in the Premier League this season, and they are conceded an average xG of 1.7 per game too! As I said, Wolves might not take advantage so we’ll keep stakes limited, but I can only see goals again here in a game Liverpool are involved in.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/livwol
