PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to Friday’s Premier League clash between ASTON VILLA v LEEDS with a match preview, FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V LEEDS
8pm It’s been a while since we enjoyed Friday Night Football from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, but it returns this week with Aston Villa hosting Leeds. It’s always easy with the benefit of hindsight, but Villa haven’t looked back since sacking Steven Gerrard. Unai Emery has come in and we’ve had an obvious improvement in performance level, and they have moved away from the relegation discussion now. Aston Villa were always “too good to go down” really; but they can do without the relegation dogfight and another three points here would see them with a big cushion on the relegation battle.
It’s a different story for Leeds, however. They kick off this fixture just two points away from the bottom three. Recent wins for Wolves and Nottingham Forest have made things very tight at the bottom of the table – Leeds are sitting in 14th but there’s not much distance between themselves and the bottom three. Plus you have sides like West Ham down there, who should in theory move up the table but results haven’t been going David Moyes way lately! You wouldn’t class Leeds as in trouble to be honest, but they are definitely in the mix. And as we all know, things can change very quickly should they go on a losing run – they have a huge run coming up as they play Nottingham Forest, Everton and Southampton all in February.
Aston Villa come into the game as favourites – they currently trade 2.0 at the time of writing with Leeds trading 4.2 and the draw is 3.75. Villa would have been very disappointed to only draw 1-1 with Wolves here after they managed to beat Spurs on New Year’s Day away from home. They suffered one of the shocks of the FA Cup Third Round last weekend as they crashed out thanks to two very goals to Stevenage. That would have been a big shock, but these things happen. The overall picture for Aston Villa is that they are heading in the right direction under Emery.
Leeds were also unable to win at the weekend in the FA Cup. They had to settle for a 2-2 draw away to Cardiff, and now have a replay in an already hectic schedule. With Leeds these days their games just scream goals. Apart from a recent 0-0 draw with Newcastle, in which they conceded an xG of 2.85 too, they have been very end-to-end games! That obviously brings Over 2.5 goals into attention, and that is an appealing bet at 1.83. I don’t see much value in the match odds market here with Villa 2.0, and it’s hard to get away from Over 2.5 goals at the odds. Villa have shown that they haven’t been too cagey under Emery – indeed they even created an xG of 1.7 against Liverpool on Boxing Day so I feel we’ll see an open game here. Leeds tend to be involved in end-to-end games, and this should be no different!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against Leeds United (W2 D2), keeping three clean sheets in this run.
● Leeds have lost just one of their last six Premier League away games against Aston Villa (W3 D2), going down 2-0 in February 2004.
● Aston Villa have lost six of their last nine Premier League games played on a Friday (W2 D1), though they did win their last one against Southampton earlier this season (1-0).
● Leeds have alternated between not winning (D1 L3) and winning (4) in each of their eight Premier League away games on a Friday, beating Wolves 3-2 in their last such match. This run includes a 3-0 win at Aston Villa in October 2020, with Patrick Bamford netting a hat-trick.
● Aston Villa scored seven goals in 11 league games under Steven Gerrard this season, at an average of 0.6 per game. Since his departure, the Villans are averaging 1.9 goals per game in the Premier League (13 in seven matches).
● Leeds have won just one of their eight away league games this season (D2 L5), beating Liverpool 2-1 in October. They’ve kept just one clean sheet on the road so far this term, though that was last time out at Newcastle (0-0).
● There have been 13 goals scored in the opening 15 minutes of Aston Villa’s Premier League matches this season (F6 A7), more than any other side. Each of their last five games at Villa Park has seen the scoring opened in this time period.
● The ball has been in-play for an average of just 50 minutes and 56 seconds in Leeds’ Premier League games this season, the lowest of any side in the division so far this term.
● Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has scored five goals in his last seven Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 32 before this. He’s looking to score in consecutive league appearances for the first time this season.
● Rodrigo has scored 40% of Leeds’ Premier League goals so far this season (10/25), with only Erling Haaland (47%) and Harry Kane (41%) netting a higher share for their side this term.
