SERIE A/LA LIGA PREVIEW: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between NAPOLI v JUVENTUS and CELTA VIGO v VILLARREAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V JUVENTUS
7.45pm It’s a blockbuster Friday night from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have two fascinating betting heats from Serie A and La Liga to enjoy, with no doubt Napoli v Juventus the highlight! That’s where we start too; with AC Milan dropping points too this has turned into a top of the table clash with Juventus moving up to second place. There’s still a seven point gap between them with Napoli in full control, but things can change quickly – especially with Juventus win here. Napoli went on an eleven game winning run before the World Cup but then returned with a 1-0 loss to Inter Milan which has closed their lead at the top of the table a little. Everyone has dropped points at some stage in Italy this season, and in fairness Napoli were the most consistent team prior to the World Cup. I know I’ve mentioned this before, but Juventus clearly haven’t been at their best this season. It’s a huge credit to them that they are sitting in second because they have been grinding out so many results – however they don’t do anything flashy, and it’s understandable to see Napoli as the big favourites here. The home side are currently 2.0 at the time of writing, and they will be a popular bet at those odds. Juventus are trading 4.4 with the draw 3.6.
It’s fair to say the market hasn’t really rated Juventus this season, and it’s easy to understand why when you look at their under-lining numbers. They are only created an average xG of 1.5 this season which isn’t too high – compare this to Napoli who have a figure of 2.2! Both sides have been tight at the back – only conceding one goal per game on average. We should have a pretty cagey game here, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back Napoli at 2.0 despite them having better overall performances this season. As I said above, Juventus haven’t been pretty to watch but they have been getting the job done. I like two options here – the draw at 3.6 and Under 2.5 goals at 1.86. I’m expecting a very cagey game here – a draw really wouldn’t be a bad result for Napoli and I can see them approaching this fixture like that – a loss would really put them under pressure given how small their lead would be after getting in such a good position! Juventus haven’t been banging in the goals or creating chances for fun, so I can only see a low scoring game here without many chances. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 0-0 at half-time, and then possibly the game opens up from there but Under 2.5 goals looks a very nice position at 1.86.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapJuv
CELTA VIGO V VILLARREAL
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening. It’s fair to say most football fans will be watching Napoli v Juventus tonight, but this is a very interesting market. We have a very open betting heat, but Villarreal come into the game as the marginal favourites at 2.7. Celta Vigo are trading 2.94 so there isn’t much between the sides with the draw at 3.4. It doesn’t take much weight of money to move these open markets – not like when sides are odds on and there are more layers; it wouldn’t take a huge move to flip flop this market. Villarreal have returned from the World Cup with two fantastic 2-1 wins, including beating Real Madrid last weekend. That result was obviously a surprise even allowing for the fact they have a good record with home advantage against Real Madrid – they managed to create an xG of 2.55 which is clearly an impressive performance against a club like Real Madrid! They also produced an impressive attacking performance against Valencia because they finished that game with an xG of 2.33 – fair to say they’ve hit the ground running after the World Cup. I was surprised when Emery left them for Aston Villa, many football fans would say that was a step backwards but it does highlight the pull (and money) of the Premier League at the moment. Celta Vigo also won last week – a huge win for them given where they are in the table. They were away to Elche who are nailed to the bottom of the table, and as I said in my preview of that game, that was a must win game for Celta Vigo looking at the relegation battle – you just can’t afford to drop points against Elche this season.
The worrying thing from a Celta Vigo point of view is that Sevilla are still below them in the table, and you’d expect that to change. Cadiz also managed a win, so Celta Vigo are just one point away from the bottom three. Apart from Elche, it does look very competitive at the moment – possibly the good news for Celta Vigo is that the likes of Almeria and Real Valladolid look like getting dragged into it – maybe even Getafe. When you look at the Celta Vigo stats, they have a good case for not being involved in the relegation battle – they aren’t conceding a lot of chances, their average xG conceded is only 1.3. Villarreal have clearly resumed their season in great form, but those two impressive performances came at home. They could easily struggle away from home here, and I feel Celta Vigo are a little better than their position in the table suggests. They can get a result here, and the draw is worth a small investment at 3.4. This could be a very cagey game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelVil
