PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to Saturday’s Premier League games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. We start with a cracker as Liverpool host Chelsea at 12.30pm.
LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA
12.30pm We have another massive Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have been treated to some cracking fixtures over the last seven days with some big impact games on the title race and the relegation battle – this weekend is no different! Arsenal v Manchester United will be the highlight fixture this weekend, but we start Saturday with a huge game as Liverpool host Chelsea. We have two clubs in crisis this season, and they have the same amount of points at the moment as they both sit in mid-table. Given at the start of the season they were second and third favourites for the title, it’s been a very disappointing season. Liverpool have just been all over the place at the back, and at the moment you’d have to wonder how they fix the issues at the back. They managed to keep a clean sheet midweek in the FA Cup replay win over Wolves, but they were shocking again at the back last weekend against Brighton. Chelsea haven’t been having a good season, and Graham Potter is a man under immense pressure, but you just know Liverpool will give Chelsea chances at some stage. We could have a very entertaining game!
Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are currently trading 1.92 at the time of writing – even with home advantage here, against a Chelsea side who haven’t been firing this season, it would take a brave punter to back Liverpool at odds on given the way they have been defending! I thought Klopp would be able to find a fix for their issues at the back with the time off during the World Cup, but they have seemingly been worse since returning! Their average xG conceded is 1.7 which is terrible for a top club like Liverpool. Although Chelsea lost against Fulham, they did create their highest xG figure of the season at 2.74 and that meant we landed a nice bet on them to beat Crystal Palace, again they created an xG of over 2.0 in that game. The signs are there that Potter is starting to find a system that works, and Liverpool feel very short here at 1.92. That being said, Over 2.5 goals catches my eye at 1.77 – both sides have conceded so many sloppy goals this season that this game just screams goals. Backing overs in Liverpool games at the moment is pretty profitable, and that can continue here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have lost just two of their last 15 Premier League matches against Chelsea (W6 D7), although one of those was at Anfield in March 2021.
● The two league games between Liverpool and Chelsea last season were both drawn; this fixture has never been drawn in three consecutive league meetings.
● The home team has won just three of the last 17 Premier League games between Liverpool and Chelsea (D7 L7), though two of those have come at Anfield (2-0 in April 2019, 5-3 in July 2020).
● Liverpool have lost both of their league games in 2023 so far, going down 3-1 at Brentford and 3-0 at Brighton. They’ve not lost their first three league matches in a calendar year since 1953.
● Chelsea have won just two of their last 10 Premier League games (D3 L5), though they did beat Crystal Palace 1-0 last time out. Away from home, the Blues are winless in five Premier League games (D2 L3), their longest run since September to December 2015 (7).
● Liverpool have conceded at least once in each of their last eight Premier League games, last doing so in nine in a row between May and October 2016. They’ve shipped three goals in each of their last two league games, last shipping 3+ in three in a row in the top-flight in December 1953.
● This will be Jürgen Klopp’s 1,000th game as a manager (270 with Mainz 05, 319 with Borussia Dortmund and 411 with Liverpool), 21 years and 327 days after his first (Mainz 1-0 Duisburg on 28th February 2001). He’s won just six of his 19 meetings with Chelsea (D9 L4), his lowest win rate (32%) against any English side he’s faced 10+ times.
● Kai Havertz scored in this exact fixture last season in the Premier League – the last Chelsea player to score in consecutive away league appearances versus Liverpool was Joe Cole in 2005.
● Excluding own goals, 10 of Liverpool’s last 11 goals at Anfield in all competitions have been scored by either Darwin Núñez or Mohamed Salah (5 each). Between them, the pair had scored just one of the Reds’ first 16 home goals this term (excl. own goals).
● Mykhailo Mudryk could become the ninth player from Ukraine to play in the Premier League, and the second to do so for Chelsea after Andriy Shevchenko. No Ukrainian has ever scored on their Premier League debut.
BOURNEMOUTH V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm Once again we have some massive games in the relegation battle kicking off at 3pm today! We had a real “relegation day” last Saturday in the 3pm games, and this week is the same. We start with Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forest, but we also have West Ham v Everton which is another huge game towards the bottom of the table. With this fixture we have two sides heading in opposite directions. Nottingham Forest have been picking up plenty of points recently, while Bournemouth are quickly heading towards the bottom three. We had a crazy meeting between the sides earlier in the season with Bournemouth coming from two goals down to win 3-2 in dramatic fashion. At that time, Nottingham Forest actually went odds on to go down and they were in a bad place, after making so many signings it looked like the club could have serious issues. However, things are very different now! Bournemouth have returned from the World Cup with six straight losses in all competitions, with four of those in the Premier League. They have had a reasonably difficult fixture list because they have had to play Chelsea and Manchester United, but they were comfortably outplayed by Crystal Palace and Brentford too. Forest picked up a massive point against Chelsea on New Year’s Day, and they have recorded huge wins against Southampton and Leicester – two sides in the relegation battle as well.
We have the most open and even market of the day here – but for me there’s only one winner. Nottingham Forest are in a much better place at the moment, and I feel they should be the favourites here. At the time of writing, Bournemouth are the marginal favourites at 2.82 with Nottingham Forest 2.88 – I’d have Nottingham Forest clear favourites here after outplaying Leicester and Southampton, along with beating Wolves in the Carabao Cup on penalties. As you’d imagine, both sides have pretty poor stats but Nottingham Forest are clearly performing better than Bournemouth. The home side have issues up front and at the back – conceding close to two goals per game and creating an average xG of less than 1.0! I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but Forest look a very solid bet at 2.88. If Bournemouth lose this then they are really in trouble, but it’s hard to get away from the 2.88.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Nottingham Forest to beat Bournemouth at 2.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have won four of their last five league games against Nottingham Forest (D1), including their only previous top-flight meeting in September, coming from 2-0 behind to win 3-2.
● Nottingham Forest have lost five of their last six away league games against Bournemouth (W1), winning the other 2-1 in August 2014 with goals from Britt Assombalonga and Matty Fryatt.
● Between October 2014 and November 2020, the away side won just 8% of the 38 Premier League meetings between two promoted sides (W3 D10 L25). Since then, the visiting team has won 69% of the 13 such matches in the competition (W9 D2 L2).
● Having been unbeaten in their first six Premier League games under Gary O’Neil (W2 D4), Bournemouth have lost eight of their last nine, with a 3-0 win over Everton coming between two runs of four straight defeats. They’ve lost the last four by an aggregate score of 9-0 – they’ve never lost five consecutive league games without scoring before.
● Nottingham Forest have won their last two Premier League games, beating Southampton 1-0 and Leicester 2-0. They last won three in a row in May 1999, while they last did so without conceding in the top-flight in March 1992 (a run of four).
● All five of Nottingham Forest’s Premier League wins this season have been to nil, failing to win any of their 13 games in which they’ve conceded at least once (D4 L9).
● No Premier League ground has seen fewer goals than Bournemouth’s Vitality Stadium this season (19), with only Wolves (6) netting fewer home goals than the Cherries (9) so far. On the other hand, Nottingham Forest have scored just twice in their nine away games this term.
● 12 of Nottingham Forest’s 34 Premier League goals conceded this season have come from outside the box, both a league-high total and percentage (35%). However, no side has scored fewer goals from distance than Bournemouth this term (1).
● Bournemouth have outshot their opponents in just three Premier League games this season, doing so against Everton (16-15), Southampton (15-9) and Leicester (10-9). Those three games account for 60% of the times they’ve had 10+ shots in a game this term (3/5), while the Southampton and Leicester games are the only matches in which they’ve faced fewer than 10 shots.
● No player has scored more Premier League goals for Nottingham Forest this season than 21-year-old Brennan Johnson (4), while 22-year-old Morgan Gibbs-White has as many assists (4) as every other Forest player combined. Gibbs-White assisted both of Johnson’s goals in their 2-0 win against Leicester last time out.
LEICESTER V BRIGHTON
3pm We have a very interesting market next as Leicester host Brighton. Much like the Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest game above, we have two sides heading in different directions here! Leicester have been dropping down the table since we re-started the season while a 3-0 win over Liverpool last weekend moved Brighton up to 7th. It’s funny how things work out – Graham Potter took the offer to manage a Champions League side in Chelsea, an opportunity he couldn’t refuse really, yet Brighton are sitting above Chelsea in the table now! Brighton would have been gutted to lose against Charlton on their return in the League Cup, but since then they have scored 17 goals in five games in all competitions. They have taken advantage of Southampton and Everton at the back, but the performance against Liverpool was top class and although they lost 4-2 to Arsenal, it was an entertaining game! You have to feel Brighton are in a good place coming into this game, and the 2.12 looks a stand out bet.
For Brendan Rodgers and Leicester, you have to say that the World Cup came at a bad time. They had put a few wins together, started playing much better football and had finally got out of the relegation zone. Since re-starting the season things haven’t gone well for them. They’ve only managed one win, and that was a less-than-impressive 1-0 win over Gillingham in the FA Cup. Not only have they lost their four Premier League games, they have been outplayed in almost all of them too. The game against Fulham was pretty close, but they were outplayed by Nottingham Forest last weekend with home advantage which is a worrying sign. With results going against them too, Leicester have definitely been dragged back into the relegation battle – they start the weekend sitting in 15th but they are just two points away from dropping into the bottom three. I feel there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here, and Brighton are worth a Max Bet at 2.12. They are creating loads of chance, while Leicester are conceding a tonne of chances too – for me there’s only one winner here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Brighton to beat Leicester at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After going unbeaten in their first eight Premier League games against Brighton (W6 D2), Leicester have lost two of their last three against the Seagulls (D1), losing 5-2 earlier this season.
● Brighton have only won one of their last 10 league visits to Leicester, winning 4-1 in April 2014 under manager Oscar Garcia in the Championship.
● Leicester have lost their last four Premier League games, having already lost six in a row in August/September this season. They last had two separate runs of 5+ defeats in a single league campaign back in 1977-78, when they were relegated from the top-flight.
● Brighton are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the second time, previously doing so in October 2018 under Chris Hughton. They’ve beaten Everton 4-1 and Liverpool 3-0 in their last two games, last winning three in a row by 3+ goals in league football in February 1969.
● Brighton are averaging 1.94 goals-per-game in the Premier League this season (35 goals in 18 games) – it’s their highest ever average in a top-flight campaign, and highest in any league season since 1964-65 in the fourth tier (2.22).
● Leicester have scored a league-high nine goals from outside the box this season, while only Nottingham Forest (12) have conceded more from distance than the Foxes (8).
● Leicester have lost their last three Premier League home games by an aggregate score of 5-0 – they’ve never lost four in a row at home without scoring in their league history.
● Brighton are looking to win four consecutive away league games for the first time since April 2016. The Seagulls could also become just the fifth different team to win four consecutive Premier League away games while scoring 3+ goals each time, and first since Man Utd in December 2020 (6).
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games against Brighton (6 goals, 3 assists). However, Vardy has scored in just one of his 19 league appearances this term, with that goal coming off the bench against Wolves in October.
● Brighton’s Solly March has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 156 appearances in the competition. Having failed to find the net with any of his first 27 shots this season, he’s now scored from four of his last 10 attempts.
SOUTHAMPTON V ASTON VILLA
3pm We have another game that will have an impact on the relegation battle here as Southampton host Aston Villa. The Saints have put three wins together in all competitions, but they recorded their first win for a while in the Premier League last weekend with a massive win away to Everton. Not only was that a big boost for Southampton, it was a massive blow to a relegation competitor too in Everton. How dearly they would have loved their wins against Crystal Palace and Manchester City to be in the Premier League rather than the Carabao Cup and FA Cup but they do have a chance of reaching the Carabao Cup Final now! Southampton still sit bottom of the table, but they start the weekend on the same amount of points as Everton and West Ham in the bottom three, and there’s only two points to 14th too! After three wins in a row, morale must be high in the camp and now they will have the belief that they can stay up too, but they do bump into a good Aston Villa side under Unai Emery who has done a good job since coming in.
We have an open market here, and I have to say it’s hard to see anything bar a very close game. While Emery has clearly given Villa a boost, he’s still working with a limited squad. Their performances have improved, but there’s only so far they can go with this group of players. If you took out the win away to Spurs, their performances might be a little disappointing but you have to give them credit for grinding out the 2-1 win over Leeds despite conceding an xG of 2.84. That was a very high xG figure to concede, and they’ll have to play better here against a Southampton side playing with confidence now after the last week or two. I think we’ll have a very close game here, and the draw is worth a small investment at 3.5. Southampton are in a good place at the moment, but Villa are a decent side under Emery – we’ll likely see a 1-1 draw with the sides cancelling each other out.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Southampton have lost their last two Premier League matches against Aston Villa, last losing three in a row between April 1998 and April 1999.
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last five away league games against Southampton (D1 L3), a 1-0 win in January 2021 with a goal from Ross Barkley.
● This is Aston Villa’s third Premier League game against a side starting the day bottom of the table this season, with the Villans so far winless in their previous two (0-1 vs West Ham, 1-1 vs Nottingham Forest).
● Southampton picked up their first Premier League win of 2023 at Everton last time out. Having also beaten Man City in the League Cup and Crystal Palace in the FA Cup before this, Saints are looking to win four consecutive matches in all competitions for the first time since September 2016 under Claude Puel.
● Southampton have lost their last three Premier League home games, last losing four in a row at St Mary’s in November 2019. Indeed, Saints have won fewer home points than any other side in the Premier League this term (6).
● Aston Villa are looking to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since November 2020, while Unai Emery could become the first manager to win his first three on the road in charge of the Villans since John Gregory in 1998.
● Aston Villa have won 13 points in their six Premier League games under Unai Emery so far (W4 D1 L1), one more than they had in 13 games under Steven Gerrard/Aaron Danks this season (W3 D3 L7). The Villans have also scored as many goals in six games under Emery, than in the 13 before his arrival (11).
● Southampton have had just 69 shots on target in 19 Premier League games this season, with their average of 3.6 per game their lowest on record in a single campaign in the competition (since 1997-98).
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games, including both strikes in Saints’ 2-1 win against Everton last time out. He’s been involved in five Premier League goals against Aston Villa (2 goals, 3 assists), only having a hand in more against Tottenham (8) and Crystal Palace (6).
● Emiliano Buendía has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 20. Five of his seven league goals for Aston Villa have ended up being the winning goal of the game, with the other two being equalisers in 1-1 draws.
WEST HAM V EVERTON
3pm We started the 3pm kick offs with a massive game in the relegation battle, and that’s the way we end them too as West Ham host Everton. Although we have some huge games this weekend, this might not be the most glamorous tie but it’s probably the most important! Although West Ham managed a win over Brentford in the FA Cup, neither side has managed a win in the Premier League since returning from the World Cup. Everton, remarkably, took a point away to Manchester United but they have had two massive setbacks with losses to Wolves and Southampton. Let’s not forget they went into the World Cup with a 3-0 loss to Bournemouth too – they slipped into the bottom three again, and right beside them in West Ham. The Hammers also had a huge setback last weekend when losing 1-0 to Wolves. It was a very close game, and they were just edged out but that loss put them into the bottom three and now you have to say they are in the relegation mix. When you look at the West Ham squad the first thing you think is these are “too good to go down” but here we are; how long before you start the panic?
Obviously a loss here would see West Ham fans hit the panic button. It really is a massive game. It’s been quite the turnaround, because at one stage West Ham were battling for a Top Four finish last season before dropping away. While Everton are level on points, they are in much bigger trouble. They clearly have a weaker squad, and the stats really highlight that West Ham have a better chance of going up the table. It’s only marginal, but they are creating more than they are conceding looking at their xG figures. Compare that to Everton who are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game this season. Things could be even worse because their actual goals conceded works out at 1.4. This is a massive game for West Ham, a real must win game when you look at the situation, and I feel they are worth backing at 1.84 but keeping stakes small.
The Striker Says:
One point win West Ham to beat Everton at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following a 2-1 home win last season, West Ham are looking for consecutive home league wins over Everton for the first time since November 1986.
● Everton are looking to complete a Premier League double over West Ham United for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
● Everton have won more Premier League games (28) and scored more Premier League goals (89) against West Ham than they have any other opponent in the competition. If they win this game, the Hammers would be the first team the Toffees have racked up 100 Premier League points against (currently 97).
● Everton are winless in nine Premier League away games in London (D3 L6), since a 1-0 win at West Ham in May 2021. They last went 10 without a win in the capital between March 2017 and November 2018, a run which ended with a 2-0 win at West Ham.
● This is the first Premier League meeting between West Ham and Everton with both sides in the relegation zone since February 1995, with Tony Cottee twice giving the Hammers the lead at Upton Park, only for Paul Rideout and Anders Limpar to equalise in a 2-2 draw.
● West Ham are winless in seven Premier League games (D1 L6), last having a longer run without a win between October and December 2017 (8).
● Since the start of last season, Everton have earned the fewest points of any of the 17 ever-present Premier League sides (54). They’ve won just three of their 28 Premier League away games in that time (D8 L17), fewer even than Fulham (4), who only joined the division this season.
● No side has scored fewer first half goals in the Premier League than both Everton and West Ham this season (6 each), with the Hammers the only side yet to score in the opening 15 minutes of matches this term.
● This will be David Moyes’ 641st Premier League match as a manager, moving level with Harry Redknapp for the joint-third most in the competition’s history (W248 D168 L224). Of managers to take charge of at least 20 Premier League games for West Ham, only Alan Curbishley (37.1%) has a better win rate with the Hammers than Moyes (36.9%).
● Demarai Gray has been involved in each of Everton’s last three Premier League goals, scoring two and assisting the other. It’s only the second time he’s registered a goal or assist in three consecutive Premier League games before, never doing so in four in a row.
CRYSTAL PALACE V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We finish a cracking Saturday with Crystal Palace hosting Newcastle. Whisper it, but are Crystal Palace slipping into a relegation battle? They seem pretty safe starting the weekend sitting up in 12th, especially after the late draw with Manchester United, but they have been playing very poor football and the teams lower than them have been picking up points. I would suggest that they will be fine; but that’s not to say that they haven’t been playing poor football. They aren’t creating many chances, and they are conceding a lot too. I’d be surprised if Newcastle couldn’t claim three points here, and it’s going to be hard to find a better bet in this game than Newcastle at 1.93. Newcastle are having a wonderful season, they fully deserve to be where they are in the table, but you have to say that they were lucky last weekend against Fulham. We had the whole double strike with the penalty, and then Newcastle left it very late to find a winner. That’s what good sides do though, they took the luck and got the job done in the end. They have been creating an average xG of 2.0 per game this season which is very impressive – add that to how solid they have been at the back and this Top Four finish is really on!
Palace would have been delighted with the draw midweek against Manchester United – and that was a big blow to United after beating Man City last weekend – but Palace were still outplayed. They definitely put in an improved performance, but they still conceded an xG of over three times what they created. It was a sucked punch right at the end for United, but Palace did have a good first half until the goal – let’s give them some credit. Despite that draw, I still can’t get away from Newcastle here; they have been fantastic this season and playing their football at a much higher level than Palace. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes but Newcastle are a confident bet to end a cracking day of football. Once again, we’ll know a lot more about the relegation battle after an action packed Saturday!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Crystal Palace at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace have only won two of their 11 Premier League home games against Newcastle United (D4 L5), a 5-1 win in November 2015 and 1-0 in February 2020.
● Since losing 5-1 to Crystal Palace in November 2015, Newcastle have only conceded six goals in 12 Premier League games against the Eagles (W5 D4 L3). However, they’ve won none of their last nine top- flight games against them when conceding (D4 L5); their last eight Premier League wins against Palace have all been to nil.
● Crystal Palace and Newcastle have already played out two 0-0 draws this season, one in the Premier League and one in the League Cup. The last time two top-flight teams had three goalless draws against each other in the same campaign was Everton against Wimbledon in 1992-93.
● Newcastle have earned seven points from their three Premier League away games in London this season (W2 D1), more than they did in six visits last term (W1 D2 L3). They last had a longer unbeaten run in the capital in the top-flight between May 2013 and January 2014 (5 – W4 D1).
● Crystal Palace have lost their last eight home league games in the Saturday 5.30pm kick-off slot, scoring six goals and conceding 19 in this run. Their last such victory was against Tottenham in January 2015 under Alan Pardew.
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League games (W9 D5) – they’ve never gone 15 without defeat in their top-flight history.
● Newcastle have conceded fewer goals (11) and kept more clean sheets (11) than any other Premier League side this season. They’ve kept a clean sheet in their last five games – their longest ever such run in top-flight history – while their 11 goals conceded is their fewest after 19 games in any top-flight campaign.
● Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha has scored two goals and provided no assists in his 15 Premier League games against Newcastle – no side that he’s faced at least 10 times in the competition does the Ivorian have fewer goal involvements against than the Magpies.
● Miguel Almirón has scored two Premier League goals against Crystal Palace, with both of these coming in 1-0 victories. He could become the 10th player to score in three different 1-0 victories against a specific opponent in the competition, with Michail Antonio against Spurs the only other current player to have done so.
● Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier has created more chances from set plays than any other player in the Premier League this season (34). Overall, his record of 2.7 chances created per 90 minutes is the highest of any Newcastle player on record in a single Premier League campaign (since 2003-04, minimum 1000 minutes).
