SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GLADBACH v BAYERN MUNICH, MONZA v AC MILAN and OSASUNA v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GLADBACH V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm It’s a fascinating Saturday around Europe with action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have three big sides in action today with the three current Champions in Germany, Italy and Spain – two are in trouble this season with AC Milan’s chance already gone and Real Madrid’s barely hanging on at the moment, will we see three away wins today? We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Gladbach hosting Bayern Munich. After resuming their season after the winter break with three straight draws, we have a reasonably close title race in Germany! Let’s not get too excited though, Bayern still lead by one point, and it’s hard to see anything bar another Bayern victory to be honest. It would be nice to have a reasonably close title race though, and maybe we can see some drama. Bayern have had a very good week coming into this game – they hammered Bochum last weekend finishing the game with an xG of 4.44 and then won 1-0 away to PSG in the Champions League. It was a reasonably close and cagey game, but Bayern got the job done and now have one foot in the Quarter-Finals.
They come into this game fully expected to win, and they are trading as short as 1.41 at the time of writing. Gladbach sit in mid-table in the Bundesliga, but their games are never short of entertainment! They concede an average xG of 1.7 and create 1.5 – fair to say they love playing an open game, and with Bayern never really sitting back in the Bundesliga, we’re bound to have lots of action here. The market is expecting goals with Both Teams To Score trading 1.6 and Over 2.5 is as short as 1.37! Bayern create a huge amount going forward – their average xG created is 2.4 after all, but they have been conceding sloppy goals since the World Cup. I’d much prefer backing Both Teams To Score at 1.6 compared to Over 3.5 goals or even Over 4.5 goals. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get a lot of action here, and Bayern can sometimes ease off when they’ve scored three or four anyway. The 1.6 looks a very nice option to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GlaBay
MONZA V AC MILAN
5pm Next we move over to Serie A as Monza host AC Milan. This should be a very interesting game because Monza have put together a nice unbeaten run and AC Milan haven’t been playing their best football since the World Cup. They did break their run of three straight losses last weekend with a hard fought 1-0 win over Torino, and then followed that up with another 1-0 win midweek in the Champions League over Spurs. No doubt they will be happy with the win over Spurs, but that tie is still up for grabs in the second leg and Milan should have scored more while they were on top – they finished the game with an xG of 2.09. Spurs have been quite poor away from home, so let’s not say AC Milan are best at their best yet. Monza have put together an unbeaten run of eight games which goes back to before the World Cup. Since resuming their season after the World Cup, they have beaten Juventus away from home and picked up a draw here against Inter Milan. They were definitely lucky to beat Juventus looking at the xG figures, but they fully deserved the draw against Inter Milan. They have been very solid at home, and AC Milan will have to play well to win.
I was surprised to see AC Milan trading as short as 2.18 when I clicked into the market here. They clearly haven’t been at their best since the World Cup, and Monza come into this game in a very good place. I fully expect the game to be closer than the odds suggest here, and it’s hard to get away from the AC Milan lay from a value point of view. Monza like to play a very tight game, and I would expect a cagey affair here. Obviously that brings Under 2.5 goals into the mind too, and that’s trading 1.81 at the time of writing. That is a very tempting price, and I couldn’t put anyone off it – however, I see more value in the AC Milan lay here. Take away the Spurs game, who have been off the pace in the Premier League too, and they have recent xG figures of 1.38, 0.14, 0.44, 1.06 and 1.45. I feel Monza can get a result here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Monza at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MonAcm
OSASUNA V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish a fascinating Saturday as Osasuna host Real Madrid. Last weekend Real Madrid were busy winning the FIFA Club World Cup, but they didn’t play anyone challenging to win it, and their fans were probably more concerned with Barcelona extending their lead in La Liga! Barcelona now have an eight point lead at the top of La Liga with the sides playing the same amount of games – Real did return to La Liga action midweek with an easy 4-0 win over Elche, but Elche have been nailed to the bottom of the table all season. Their loss away to Mallorca before winning the FIFA Club World Cup was the real massive blow. It’s hard to believe that Real won El Clasico before the World Cup too given the lead is eight points now! It’s actually very difficult to see them turning that around. While you wouldn’t say that they have been poor away from home, they have dropped more points. They are within two of Barcelona on the home form table, but have earned six points less than Barcelona away from home and that’s where the major difference is.
Real still come into this game trading odds on, and they will have a lot of backers at 1.87. Osasuna are your classic mid-table La Liga side, it’s actually remarkable how consistent they have been in La Liga – they’ve finished within two spots of mid-table since coming up from the Segunda after the 2018/19 season when they were impressive winners. They like to keep games as tight as possible, and they really don’t give away many chances. Because they focus on being solid at the back, they don’t create much either. The average goals scored in Osasuna games this season is only 1.8. You can see why Under 2.5 goals is trading odds on at 1.84, and I have to say I much prefer Under 2.5 goals compared to the Real Madrid win here. Osasuna are going to sit back and play a very cagey game, and Real are going to have to grind out a win. I can see them grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 either – Under 2.5 goals looks like a nice position.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaRea
