SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top European matches all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V KOLN
2.30pm The action around Europe this weekend continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with the Bundesliga and La Liga the focus on Saturday. It’s really heating up in title races, top four battles and relegation battles too – I think March is my favourite part of the season! We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Union Berlin hosting Koln. Unfortunately for Union they had a big setback in their title challenge – if we’re calling it that – with a loss to Bayern Munich last weekend. I don’t think anyone really believes that Union can win the title over Bayern, but they have been giving it a good go this season! They went into that game on the same amount of points as Bayern which is an incredible achievement at this stage of the season. As I said in my preview of that game, Union Berlin have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season. They are creating an average xG of 1.0 this season, but actually scoring an average of 1.6 – that is a big difference, and eventually they will stop scoring from difficult positions. They have been rock solid at the back which is to their credit, but that xG created is very low – some sides sitting in mid-table would have a higher figure going forward – probably a lot of sides!
That’s why we see Union trading at a reasonably high price of 1.99. The market knows that they have been over-performing, and although they are miles ahead of Koln in the table the performance level isn’t far off. Indeed, Koln sit on the lower end of mid-table but they are creating an average xG of 1.5 this season. Their conceded xG average is only 1.2 which is only a little over Union’s too – the only major negative for Koln here is that they haven’t been great on the road this season. They’ve only managed eight points away from home. One wonders what a dent in confidence that loss to Bayern Munich will be – but either way Union haven’t been creating a lot lately. Their last six xG figures in all competitions have been; 0.25, 1.71, 0.92, 0.98, 1.01 and 1.09. Koln like to play an open game, and they will very likely create more than Union here. I’m happy to keep stakes low because Union haven’t been getting the job done this season and you can’t knock them for that, but the 1.99 feels a few ticks too low here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Union Berlin to beat Koln at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniCol
STUTTGART V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as the German Champions Bayern Munich travel to take on Stuttgart. Bayern haven’t been at their best this season, they have dropped a lot more points than usual but they did record a massive win last weekend against Union Berlin. They went into the game level on points with Union but completely bossed the game to win 3-0. You have to ask the question of how much below their best do Bayern Munich have to be to not win the title in Germany? Probably a lot! In fairness this weekend, we won’t find out anything new as there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here. Stuttgart start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three, and Bayern Munich are the last side you want to see when you come into the weekend in that position! They actually have the same amount of points as Hoffenheim and Bochum so it’s going to be a very tight relegation battle this season – even Schalke are only three points away at the bottom of the table after some recent draws and a win over Stuttgart. That game could prove massive by the end of the season; losing to Schalke has really put Stuttgart under pressure. To be fair to Stuttgart they haven’t been playing that badly this season, but they are conceding more than they should and not scoring as much as they should. I would suggest they will stay up looking at their under-lining numbers, but they need to start getting points.
Of course, this isn’t the game that they start that! It’s very hard to see past a Bayern win here, and I was actually surprised to see them trading as high as 1.44 when I clicked into the market. They have dropped more points away from home this season, but they should still be able to deal with Stuttgart easily. Stuttgart have managed to get two draws from the last two meetings between the sides – two entertaining 2-2 draws – but prior to that we saw 5-0, 4-0, 3-1, 4-1 and 3-0 wins for Bayern. I was very tempted to take the 1.44 on Bayern, but I feel that they will win easily here. Stuttgart are basically conceding what they are creating – their average xG for both is only 1.4. Bayern have been on fire up front, their average xG created is 2.3 and they are actually scoring an average of 2.9 goals per game. I feel that they can cover the Handicap here, and the 2.09 -1.5 goals is cracking value in my opinion. It’s worth a Max Bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Stuttgart at 2.09 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/StuBay
ATLETICO MADRID V SEVILLA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the day as Atletico Madrid host Sevilla. Usually this would be a huge game with a big impact at the top of the table but unfortunately for Sevilla that isn’t the case this season. They had a terrible start to the season and that just continued into the World Cup. Remarkably they sat in the relegation zone for ages, but they have finally moved away in recent weeks with some hard fought wins – mainly against the sides around them. I don’t think anyone thought that they actually get relegated, they just stayed in the bottom three for so long it was worrying. Obviously missing out on the Champions League next season is a huge blow – not only the money side of things but losing players and then players not wanting to join a club without European football either. It really has been a disaster for Sevilla. This season hasn’t been good to Atletico Madrid either, but they have been grinding out results and sit in fourth at the start of the weekend, only two points ahead of Real Betis. They dropped points again last weekend, but a draw away to Real Madrid isn’t a bad result at all! They were lucky to get that 1-1 draw too because they conceded an xG of 2.10 and only created 0.33.
Sevilla’s problems have mainly been at the back this season. They are usually so solid at the back, but they have conceded an average xG of 1.7 this season. They haven’t been scoring goals either, but their issues at the back have caused the most problems. After they put a few wins together, including beating PSV 3-0 in the Europa League at home, they come into this game having conceded five goals in two games. Shipping three against Osasuna last weekend and then losing the second leg 2-0 to PSV away from home.
You’d have to fancy Atletico here, but they have been unreliable this season. The 1.74 on them feels the right price in my opinion – the match odds market looks right here and I don’t see much value. I’m happy to look around the sides markets – I still expect Atletico to grind out a win but they haven’t been firing this season. Their games in La Liga this season have had an average of just 2.2 goals – they have been solid at the back and they aren’t converting all their chances. That obviously brings Under 2.5 goals straight into the focus here, and that’s trading 1.72. I much prefer that bet compared to the Atletico win at just two ticks bigger, but I am worried about how many goals Sevilla have been conceding this season. For that reason, I’m happy with two points rather than a bigger bet. I feel we’ll see a very cagey game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlSvl
