FRIDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Friday’s match between NOTTINGHAM FOREST v NEWCASTLE including FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V NEWCASTLE
8pm It’s been an incredible week of sport on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have Friday Night Football from the Premier League to enjoy too! Nottingham Forest host Newcastle with the home side in danger of slipping back towards the relegation zone. Forest did put a great run together after the World Cup, but they’ve gone five games without a win now and a lot of sides towards the bottom have been winning games recently! We’ve had surprise results, like Bournemouth beating Liverpool and Southampton beating Chelsea which has really opened things up again. Sean Dyche has come in at Everton and done a wonderful job too.
Even though Forest come into this game without a win in five, they have managed to have a big impact in the title race in that run. They managed to hold Manchester City to a draw here, and that might make punters think twice before backing Newcastle at odds on here. Newcastle are trading 1.75 at the time of writing, with Nottingham Forest 5.5 and the draw is 3.9. Newcastle finally recorded a win last weekend with a 2-1 win over Wolves. They had a difficult fixture list, and they weren’t playing bad football but they had gone through a tough spell.
They had to play Liverpool and Manchester City back-to-back in the Premier League, and in between those fixtures they had the loss to Manchester United in the Carabao Cup Final. It’s a shame they threw away so many points in games they should have won otherwise they would be in a much better position in the Top Four race. That Bournemouth win over Liverpool wasn’t just a massive result in the relegation battle, but it was a huge result in the Top Four race too. That has definitely opened the door again for Newcastle but they have to go and win their games in hand now. They are four points behind Spurs, but have two games in hand. The main danger seemed to be Liverpool, but after the loss to Bournemouth they are two points behind Newcastle and have played one game more.
Newcastle dropped points against Leeds, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth. Really and truly they should be winning those games because all four sides have struggled this season. They didn’t play badly though, they finished those games with xG figures of 2.85, 1.78, 1.51 and 1.80. Newcastle have actually been excellent up front this season, they’re average xG created is 1.9 and their average conceded is just 1.1. Forest’s xG figures are nearly the opposite – they are only creating an average xG of 1.2 but conceding 1.9!
You can understand why Newcastle are odds on here, but you’d have to be a little worried about how good Nottingham Forest have been at home this season. They have really struggled away from home, they have only managed six points on the road but sit comfortably in mid-table on the home form table. They are unbeaten in their last nine home league games, and they have played Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool.
With that home record in mind, I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here. Newcastle have really impressed me this season, and they have the stats to back it up but it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter. Forest have only failed to score once at home all season, and that was towards the start of the season too – the bet I like is Both Teams To Score at 2.02. We should see plenty of action here, Newcastle have been creating a host of chances this season and should continue to do so. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-1 draw, and that could be worth backing in the Correct Score market but I’d have BTTS odds on.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest have won their last two home league games against Newcastle, with both of these coming in the Championship (October 2009, December 2016). In the top-flight, they’re winless in their last six against the Magpies at the City Ground (D4 L2).
● Newcastle are unbeaten in all nine of their Premier League games against Nottingham Forest (W6 D3), both the most they’ve faced an opponent without ever losing, and the most Forest have faced a side without ever winning in the competition.
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games against promoted sides (W6 D7) since a 2-1 loss to Leeds in January 2021. They last had a longer run without defeat in the competition between September 2002 and January 2005 (15).
● Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 11 league games played on a Friday (D6 L4), beating Cardiff 1-0 in April 2021. In the top-flight, they’ve lost five of their last six Friday games (D1), with their only such game in the Premier League ending in a 3-2 home defeat to Fulham earlier this season.
● Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home games (W4 D5), since losing three in a row in August/September. Only Manchester United (12) are on a longer current run without defeat at home in the division.
● 20 of Nottingham Forest’s 26 Premier League points this season have come in home games, the highest percentage in the competition this term (77%). They’ve won 14 more points at home than they have away (20 at home, 6 away), with only Liverpool having a bigger such difference (18 – 30 home, 12 away).
● Following their 2-1 win against Wolves last time out, Newcastle are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time in 2023. However, they’re winless in their last four away from home (D3 L1), their longest run without a win on the road under Eddie Howe.
● Six of Brennan Johnson’s seven Premier League goals for Nottingham Forest this season have come in home games, netting five in his last four at the City Ground. The only Forest players to score more home goals in a single Premier League campaign are Stan Collymore (13) and Bryan Roy (7), who both did so in 1994-95.
● Miguel Almirón has scored 30% of Newcastle’s Premier League goals this season (11/37), the highest share by a Magpies player in a single campaign since Loïc Rémy in 2013-14 (33% – 14/43).
● Jesse Lingard has scored three goals in seven Premier League games against Newcastle, only netting more in the competition against Arsenal (4). His second ever top-flight goal came against the Magpies in January 2016, though he’s still yet to score in 16 appearances for Nottingham Forest this term.
