SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews RB LEIPZIG v MAINZ, BAYERN MUNICH v DORTMUND and ELCHE v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V MAINZ
2.30pm Domestic football is back in full flow around Europe, and we have a cracking weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We focus on action from the Bundesliga and La Liga on Saturday, and we have plenty of talking points to discuss. We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with RB Leipzig hosting Mainz, and while Bayern Munich were in the news during the International break for sacking their manager, RB Leipzig went into the International break in a terrible place too – even worse than Bayern Munich! Obviously expectations are different but a 7-0 loss to Manchester City knocked them out of the Champions League and then losing 1-0 to Bochum and falling out of the top four is going to ring the alarm bells. The International break came at a good time to re-group from that point of view, and they won’t be afraid of Union Berlin or Freiburg who sit above them – despite those two being quality sides. The title race was never really an option this season for RB Leipzig, so they just need to focus on getting into that top four and getting Champions League football next season. They have a tricky return to action here against a Mainz side who have put together an unbeaten run.
Mainz have a good recent record against RB Leipzig too, they have won two of the last four Bundesliga meetings and only lost once in those four games. The bad news for Mainz fans is those three results came with home advantage, and they actually lost 4-1 the last time RB Leipzig had home advantage. RB Leipzig come into the game as the hot favourites currently trading 1.54 at the time of writing, it’s hard to make the case that they should be much shorter than those odds, and I don’t see the 1.54 offering much value. Mainz have been pretty decent away from home this season too. However, RB Leipzig have been excellent at home – they have actually managed more points at home than Bayern Munich have at home from the same amount of games. When these two meet, we usually see action and plenty of goals! Over 2.5 goals stands out here at 1.68 – I can’t see Mainz sitting back and RB Leipzig are going to attack – it’s the only way they play! Mainz are conceding an average xG of 1.5 and creating 1.4, so I would be very surprised if we didn’t see goals here. The 1.68 is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblMai
BAYERN MUNICH V DORTMUND
5.30pm What a fixture we have next as Bayern Munich host Dortmund in a top of the table clash in the Bundesliga! As I said above, the Bundesliga has been in the headlines during the International break with Bayern sacking their manager. They really didn’t handle the situation well – apparently he found out on social media! They have got an excellent manager in the shape of Thomas Tuchel, and he will be a very good fit at Bayern now – he could even win the Champions League as he did when taking over at Chelsea. I know there was jokes made about the record under Julian Nagelsmann but the reality was Bayern clearly weren’t at their best this season. I know they haven’t lost many games, but their performance level has been miles off their usual level this season. They have dropped more points than usual, and they usually have the title nearly won at this stage of the season. Instead they find themselves sitting a point behind Dortmund. From that point of view, what a time for this fixture to come! It’s going to be absolutely superbly viewing. Der Klassiker is always a cracking game, but Bayern being behind in the title race obviously adds a bit of spice. It’s like that Nagelsmann lost the dressing room, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big improvement from Bayern here. Despite Dortmund being ahead in the title race, when both sides are at their best there is still a gulf in class between them. There’s really only one side in Germany – you’d expect Bayern to still win the title from here.
It’s probably a sign of how far ahead Bayern are that they are trading as short as 1.53 given they haven’t been at their best this season and Dortmund are ahead of them in the table. We all wondered how Dortmund would do without the goals from Erling Haaland this season, and so far you’d have to say it’s been a big success. They are creating an average xG of 1.9 and conceding an average of 1.3. The conceded average is a little high, but they are still impressive figures. Even though Bayern have dropped more points than usual, their average xG figure created is 2.3 this season. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market as I much prefer Both Teams To Score one tick bigger than the Bayern Munich win. Bayern have conceded a lot of sloppy goals this season, and Dortmund have been so good going forward I would be surprised if we didn’t see both teams on the score sheet here. We saw a classic 2-2 the last time the sides met, and hopefully we get as much drama this time!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayDrt
ELCHE V BARCELONA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish a cracking Saturday as Elche host Barcelona. We have a bottom v top clash here, and it’s a case of how many goals can Barcelona score rather than will they win in my opinion. The market is confident on the Barcelona win, with the away side trading 1.39 at the time of writing. I’m going to look around the side markets for some value, but I couldn’t put anyone off including Barcelona in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend. Barcelona went into the International break on a high after winning the latest El Clasico – they came back from being 1-0 down at half-time, and the Camp Nou went crazy when the last minute winner went in. It must have been a fantastic buzz for the team too – they have been through a lot off the field over the last two seasons, and now they are 12 points clear at the top of the table. As I said in my preview of El Clasico, even if Barcelona lost the title was still in their hands with a six point lead – now with a 12 point lead the title race is over in my opinion. Barcelona have been playing too well for Real Madrid to close that gap, and they don’t have any European games to distract them either. The title is heading back to Barcelona.
Unfortunately for Elche, it’s been a completely different story at the bottom of the table for them. The highs and lows of football. Barcelona can say they are detached at the top of the table, while Elche are detached at the bottom. They sit rock bottom with only 13 points from 26 games this season – there’s a 13 point hap to Almeria who sit in 19th. Elche have nothing left to play for this season, and that can be quite dangerous too – they can just “go for it” with nothing to lose. They’ve picked up a few results recently and in general they have been creating more chances. Their overall stats are still terrible though – they are conceding an average xG of 2.4 and only creating 1.1. Basically the opposite of Barcelona who create an average xG of 2.3 and only concede 0.9. I feel this will be one way traffic for Barcelona, and with Elche being so poor at the back they can cover the Handicap here. They are trading 2.04 -1.5 goals and I was very surprised to see this trading odds against. At the odds, it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Elche at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ElcBar
